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Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sun Jun 30, 2024 10:01 pm
by Stom
Banquo wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2024 7:48 pm
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Jun 30, 2024 3:42 pm
Banquo wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:08 pm
....and where is the challenge coming from even if you cant see the big difference between the scenarios? Plus its going to be better even if Labour do as little as they`ve committed to- external events aside.
Challenge to Labour? It doesn't seem possible right now but the main selling point for Labour is 'change' - nothing intrinsic to Labour and certainly nothing about the Labour leadership. If they don't deliver 'change' their support might prove very fickle. And if the Tories reinvent themselves either by a new moderate, fresh face or more likely bring Farage into the fold (and crucially stop him from splitting the right vote) the whole situation could reverse (by 2029). Also, Starmerism is far less attractive to the youth vote than Corbynism. Support for genocide is also unpopular with the young.
I agree a Labour government is likely to do better than the continuation of this Tory one (which plans to cut spending even more to pay for the NI cut), but austerity will continue. So by 'better' I would mean 'better than the alternative' not 'getting better over time'.
I guess Labours change message is only ‘change from the tories’ as they aren’t offering any transformational change without reviews. So it’s possible that the demand for real change will become loud- but I think they’ll get a lot of time by dint of who else even if they don’t do much.
Over here, the government are making the economic situation such that if they lose the next election, there will be a crash and the new government will not be able to prevent it. That's their only chance.
The Tories could be hoping for something similar.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2024 11:33 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Sabotage or penny-pinching incompetence, damaging our ability to make deals with the US?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... egotiators
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2024 3:09 pm
by Sandydragon
There is no joined up thinking and nothing really works anymore. Civil Service is broken.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2024 5:51 am
by Zhivago
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:11 am
by Sandydragon
Normally
It would be. These days it just has to take a number and get in line.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:46 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
C4's surprising discovery of racism within the Reform parry seems to have given the Tories a little bounce in the polls.
As it's at the expense of Reform I don't know if this is a good thing or not. Hmmmm. Probably not. The prize here is to see the Tories down to 3rd place. So even if Farage takes them over, he'll be nowhere near a despatch box.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2024 7:24 pm
by Sandydragon
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jul 02, 2024 6:46 pm
C4's surprising discovery of racism within the Reform parry seems to have given the Tories a little bounce in the polls.
As it's at the expense of Reform I don't know if this is a good thing or not. Hmmmm. Probably not. The prize here is to see the Tories down to 3rd place. So even if Farage takes them over, he'll be nowhere near a despatch box.
I’m very happy for people to realise that Reform arent a party of nice, but eccentric gents.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:32 pm
by Puja
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:41 pm
by paddy no 11
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:00 pm
by Sandydragon
Might be better if he just buggers off back to Eastern Europe:
He was with Farage on the night of the Brexit referendum when he sensed a gambling opportunity. “At 10pm, I couldn’t believe I was still getting 9/1 [for a majority leave vote],” he told the Telegraph newspaper afterwards. “We were in our campaign office and I was tracking all the major stock indices, the dollar and pound currency markets. When it got to 3am, I was getting my managers out of bed to get me another 50 grand on here, another 50 grand there, to short sterling. I just couldn’t help myself.”
Cottrell claimed to have won a six-figure sum from shorting the pound but said he promptly “lost most of it the next day” on a horse.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:49 pm
by paddy no 11
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:00 pm
Might be better if he just buggers off back to Eastern Europe:
He was with Farage on the night of the Brexit referendum when he sensed a gambling opportunity. “At 10pm, I couldn’t believe I was still getting 9/1 [for a majority leave vote],” he told the Telegraph newspaper afterwards. “We were in our campaign office and I was tracking all the major stock indices, the dollar and pound currency markets. When it got to 3am, I was getting my managers out of bed to get me another 50 grand on here, another 50 grand there, to short sterling. I just couldn’t help myself.”
Cottrell claimed to have won a six-figure sum from shorting the pound but said he promptly “lost most of it the next day” on a horse.
It's ridiculous what people have to put up with, constantly under threat from criminals and sociopaths
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:48 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
paddy no 11 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:49 pm
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 8:00 pm
Might be better if he just buggers off back to Eastern Europe:
He was with Farage on the night of the Brexit referendum when he sensed a gambling opportunity. “At 10pm, I couldn’t believe I was still getting 9/1 [for a majority leave vote],” he told the Telegraph newspaper afterwards. “We were in our campaign office and I was tracking all the major stock indices, the dollar and pound currency markets. When it got to 3am, I was getting my managers out of bed to get me another 50 grand on here, another 50 grand there, to short sterling. I just couldn’t help myself.”
Cottrell claimed to have won a six-figure sum from shorting the pound but said he promptly “lost most of it the next day” on a horse.
It's ridiculous what people have to put up with, constantly under threat from criminals and sociopaths
https://grammarist.com/proverb/a-man-is ... -he-keeps/
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2024 11:24 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Hilariously tepid support for Labour from the Sun:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... l-election
A mark of shame for Labour though, if the Sun supports you, you must be doing plenty wrong.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:34 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Please God, not more PFI for the NHS:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/art ... -hospitals
https://www.ippr.org/media-office/nhs-h ... 0bn%20bill
(And this report was written when interest rates were much lower. God knows what the PFI payments are now.)
I fully expect Streeting to do this, under a different name of course.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:38 am
by Which Tyler
Expected time frames tonight.
Highlights:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/04/what-time-will-we-know-who-won-hour-by-hour-guide-election-night-2024
All constituencies estimated declarations:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-declaration-times-when-results-areas-constituencies-b1168547.html
Whether I stay up all night will depend on:
A] What tomorrow's work diary looks like when I leave this evening.
B] My actual capacity to stay awake (my insomnia's been playing up recently, and I'm overdue a crash).
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:29 am
by Which Tyler
"Poll of polls"
https://inews.co.uk/news/election-2024- ... ed-3137011
It's the Independent, so you can usually bypass the paywall by hitting refresh, and stop
ETA: Okay, that tactic only works for a minute or so; here's the archive (obviously, no interactive elements):
https://archive.ph/skWeL
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:38 am
by Sandydragon
The Sun editors hate Starmer. But they always want to be on the winning side.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:43 am
by Son of Mathonwy
I think I'll go to bed after the exit polls come out, put BBC on record, then get up at 5 to watch it at high speed.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:50 am
by Puja
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:12 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:50 am
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:24 am
by Puja
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:12 am
Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:50 am
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Puja
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:07 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:24 am
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:12 am
Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:50 am
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Puja
As a consolation, it'll be nice to listen to them trying to create a noise in the Commons when there's less than 100 of them.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:09 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Nice to see those bastards eradicated from Wales.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:19 am
by Sandydragon
Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:24 am
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:12 am
Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:50 am
Literally zero "Safe" or "Very Probable" Tory seats
Puja
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Puja
Reform might have droped a couple of points as a result of some of its less PR friendly candidates being honest. Im still amazed that some of the candidates were surprised that they shared a party with a bunch of racists. I suppose the Farage effect has affected them too.
It will be a huge ask for the Lib Dems to make second place. Im guessing 100-120 Conservative MPs will be left. The big issue will be which MPs and if there's a large clutch of righ wing tories then they are likely to reexamine the ideological nonsense of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which will reduce the effectiveness of them in opposition. There has to be an opposition party and its better for everyone if its not totally batshit crazy.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:10 pm
by Puja
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:19 am
Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:24 am
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:12 am
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.
Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.
Puja
Reform might have droped a couple of points as a result of some of its less PR friendly candidates being honest.
Im still amazed that some of the candidates were surprised that they shared a party with a bunch of racists. I suppose the Farage effect has affected them too.
It will be a huge ask for the Lib Dems to make second place. Im guessing 100-120 Conservative MPs will be left. The big issue will be which MPs and if there's a large clutch of righ wing tories then they are likely to reexamine the ideological nonsense of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which will reduce the effectiveness of them in opposition. There has to be an opposition party and its better for everyone if its not totally batshit crazy.
I suspect that there is probably a bit of truth to the Reform screeching that their candidates were being offered jobs and inducements to abandon ship - I'd be surprised if two Reform candidates independently realised across two days that the racism was coming from inside of the house and decided the only thing to do was to publically support the notably completely unracist Conservative party.
Puja