RugbyRebels

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:43 am I think I'll go to bed after the exit polls come out, put BBC on record, then get up at 5 to watch it at high speed.

Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 12:10 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:19 am

Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:24 am

Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.

Puja

Reform might have droped a couple of points as a result of some of its less PR friendly candidates being honest. Im still amazed that some of the candidates were surprised that they shared a party with a bunch of racists. I suppose the Farage effect has affected them too.

It will be a huge ask for the Lib Dems to make second place. Im guessing 100-120 Conservative MPs will be left. The big issue will be which MPs and if there's a large clutch of righ wing tories then they are likely to reexamine the ideological nonsense of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which will reduce the effectiveness of them in opposition. There has to be an opposition party and its better for everyone if its not totally batshit crazy.

I suspect that there is probably a bit of truth to the Reform screeching that their candidates were being offered jobs and inducements to abandon ship - I'd be surprised if two Reform candidates independently realised across two days that the racism was coming from inside of the house and decided the only thing to do was to publically support the notably completely unracist Conservative party.

Puja

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 1:12 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:43 am I think I'll go to bed after the exit polls come out, put BBC on record, then get up at 5 to watch it at high speed.

Ewww, Kuenssberg

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:08 pm Just a warning Re: Drinking games.

The tories are expected to lose a couple of hundred seats, possibly even as high as 288.
If someone is expecting to take a shot for every tory loss; you'd be expecting to drink a dozen (and up to 17) bottles of spirits.
Even a game involving a finger of beer could be drinking 2-dozen pints... in 7 hours.

Is someone suggests making a drinking game of things tonight, they may be trying to kill you.

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:08 pm Just a warning Re: Drinking games.

The tories are expected to lose a couple of hundred seats, possibly even as high as 288.
If someone is expecting to take a shot for every tory loss; you'd be expecting to drink a dozen (and up to 17) bottles of spirits.
Even a game involving a finger of beer could be drinking 2-dozen pints... in 7 hours.

Is someone suggests making a drinking game of things tonight, they may be trying to kill you.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:19 am

Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:24 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:12 am
Unfortunately only one of those polls has the Tories down to 3rd place. But there'll be a hell of a lot of Portillo moments.

Yeah, I think Reform's latest PR failures of saying the quiet bit out loud, combined with general regression to the mean and the Tories' "supermajority" bullshit, has killed the dream of the Lib Dems overtaking them. It was always a long shot, albeit a hilarious one.

Puja

Reform might have droped a couple of points as a result of some of its less PR friendly candidates being honest. Im still amazed that some of the candidates were surprised that they shared a party with a bunch of racists. I suppose the Farage effect has affected them too.

It will be a huge ask for the Lib Dems to make second place. Im guessing 100-120 Conservative MPs will be left. The big issue will be which MPs and if there's a large clutch of righ wing tories then they are likely to reexamine the ideological nonsense of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which will reduce the effectiveness of them in opposition. There has to be an opposition party and its better for everyone if its not totally batshit crazy.

Banquo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:09 pm reform predicted for 13....libdems plus 53.

%votes will be fascinating

Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:13 pm Hobson's choice for election coverage. Kuenssberg is intolerable, so changed over to Channel 4 and Dorries was talking, so switched to ITV and they were stultifyingly boring, plus the threat of George Osbourne being allowed to talk.

Puja

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:48 pm

Banquo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:09 pm reform predicted for 13....libdems plus 53.

%votes will be fascinating

Silver lining is that Conservatives with 130 should be strong enough to tell Farage to F off

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:20 am

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:48 pm

Banquo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:09 pm reform predicted for 13....libdems plus 53.

%votes will be fascinating

Silver lining is that Conservatives with 130 should be strong enough to tell Farage to F off

Possibly
Not. Several Tory MPs talking about how they weren’t conservative enough. I’m expecting a shift to the right and you won’t get a rizzla between them and reform until they realise that won’t work.

Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:45 am Get in!!!

Good to see the Tories get jumped, although not by as much as I would've liked, great to see LDs have such a good night, but top of the bill for me personally is seeing the SNP get humbled. Seeing useless, arrogant snouts-in-the-trough nationalist wankers getting booted will always put me in a good mood.

The overall result brings plenty of pressure for Labour, but that's for the next 5 years to sort out. For now I'm just enjoying the view.

Banquo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:53 am

Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:45 am Get in!!!

Good to see the Tories get jumped, although not by as much as I would've liked, great to see LDs have such a good night, but top of the bill for me personally is seeing the SNP get humbled. Seeing useless, arrogant snouts-in-the-trough nationalist wankers getting booted will always put me in a good mood.

The overall result brings plenty of pressure for Labour, but that's for the next 5 years to sort out. For now I'm just enjoying the view.

Lib Dem’s have cleaned up very blue seats round me. Having met them though, complete muppets. But less muppety than the tories. Fckin ell. Looking at the detail, Tory vote went to Reform, enabling narrow Lib Dem wins, suspect replicated across the south east, predictable I suppose.

Turnout a bit of a worry, and Lib Dem’s have so far gained 63 seats with a .6 % vote share increase, and Labour 210 on a 1.6% uptick. Weird stuff. Reform getting 16% is no joke either.