RugbyRebels

If we're all fixated by this, can you imagine what its like in the Democrat and Republican 'war rooms'. Coffee via IV drip potentially by this point.

Sandydragon wrote:

Stom wrote:

fivepointer wrote:Looks like Biden will just get over the line.

But thats just the vote. We will get weeks of legal wrangling before a winner is formally announced.

This will be the worst possible result, I think.

Trump win before the early votes are tallied, flipping to a Biden win after they're counted...

We could see extreme violence. Not good.

Agreed, this has potential to kick off royally.

I can't for the life of my understand why postal ballots cannot be counted alongside other ballots and declared simultaneously. This feels like death by a thousand cuts.

A lot of Yank states use electronic voting machines, so they auto-count and then just have to be checked to make sure that they've got it right. Postal ballots have to be opened (then removed from their "secrecy envelopes" depending on how ridiculous the state is), then checked to make sure that "teh frauds" are not happening, then counted. Sensible states like Florida (first time that phrase has been used) count postal votes when they come in and keep the totals secret. Semi-sensible states at least process them early (remove from envelope, check, etc) and then have hte count on the day. Fucking stupid states with Republican legislatures specifically ban anyone even so much as touching an envelope before the polls close.

Puja

Puja wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Stom wrote:
This will be the worst possible result, I think.

Trump win before the early votes are tallied, flipping to a Biden win after they're counted...

We could see extreme violence. Not good.

Agreed, this has potential to kick off royally.

I can't for the life of my understand why postal ballots cannot be counted alongside other ballots and declared simultaneously. This feels like death by a thousand cuts.

A lot of Yank states use electronic voting machines, so they auto-count and then just have to be checked to make sure that they've got it right. Postal ballots have to be opened (then removed from their "secrecy envelopes" depending on how ridiculous the state is), then checked to make sure that "teh frauds" are not happening, then counted. Sensible states like Florida (first time that phrase has been used) count postal votes when they come in and keep the totals secret. Semi-sensible states at least process them early (remove from envelope, check, etc) and then have hte count on the day. Fucking stupid states with Republican legislatures specifically ban anyone even so much as touching an envelope before the polls close.

Puja

Notwithstanding the security concerns around postal voting (however overblown) it would make sense for a cut off point ot be announced and then for the votes to be counted concurrently with the other votes, or at least if the electronic voting is in place then the results are kept secret until all votes by whatever means are counted for that district/country/whatever.

As a federal election, surely the federal government can suggest to states that their returns need to be ready for a specific time after polling closes (not withstanding if there are any recounts). This current process seems positively idiotic.

Michigan has flipped, not sure if someone mentioned that

Michigan now trending blue!!

Zhivago wrote:Michigan has flipped, not sure if someone mentioned that

Bugger, beat me to it. Just heard it on BBC news, 0.1% ahead with 11% of the vote left to be counted.

Sandydragon wrote:Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

So if those leaning blue remain so, Biden is on for 270. Might not need Pennsylvania.

Sandydragon wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

So if those leaning blue remain so, Biden is on for 270. Might not need Pennsylvania.

And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Sandydragon wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

So if those leaning blue remain so, Biden is on for 270. Might not need Pennsylvania.

And that's with Georgia and North Carolina still being in play - by my reckoning, Biden needs 2:1 on the remaining votes in those states to win them, which is not impossible considering a lot of the remaining votes are mail-in votes. Be amusing if Biden ends up winning handsomely while losing Pennsylvania which was supposed to be key.

Puja

Sandydragon wrote: And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

ETA, they just flashed up that it's narrowed, little below 600k didn't catch the full figures though, so no idea if narrowing quickly enough

Which Tyler wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

Banquo wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

Ah, cross purposes then, I assumed that quoting Pennsylvania meant he was referring to Pennsylvania.

I thought we'd already established that Biden holding WI, MI, AZ and NV meant that Biden wins, regardless of PA, GA or NC

Which Tyler wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

ETA, they just flashed up that it's narrowed, little below 600k didn't catch the full figures though, so no idea if narrowing quickly enough

BBC news reported that the vote for Trump had increased in Pennsylvania, but theres still 24% of the vote to count so its still a possibility.

Big concern right now is Nevada which is really close.

Which Tyler wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Which Tyler wrote: Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

Ah, cross purposes then, I assumed that quoting Pennsylvania meant he was referring to Pennsylvania.

I thought we'd already established that Biden holding WI, MI, AZ and NV meant that Biden wins, regardless of PA, GA or NC

I am referring to Pennsylvania.

Thats my understanding, if those states which are blue remain so its Biden's win. Just.

Which Tyler wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Which Tyler wrote: Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

yep 12k up with 90% counted. Wayne County as predicted before have a huge number of dem votes coming in.

looks like 270 play 268 unless Nevada does something mad.

Ah, cross purposes then, I assumed that quoting Pennsylvania meant he was referring to Pennsylvania.

I thought we'd already established that Biden holding WI, MI, AZ and NV meant that Biden wins, regardless of PA, GA or NC

soz, I'd thought he was referring to MI being important given what was happening in PA.

AZ bagged by the look of it- good turnover.

Sandydragon wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: And if the latest news of Trump widening his majority in that state is correct, that might be important.

Wait what?
CNN haven't covered that - unless I was making tea at the time

ETA, they just flashed up that it's narrowed, little below 600k didn't catch the full figures though, so no idea if narrowing quickly enough

BBC news reported that the vote for Trump had increased in Pennsylvania, but theres still 24% of the vote to count so its still a possibility.

Big concern right now is Nevada which is really close.

OK, BBC disagree with CNN, and AP.
CNN have Trump ahead by 567k
AP have Trump's lead at 562k

Was 617k at lunchtime

Nevada is concerning, but mostly from 1 update, and were still waiting on Las Vegas mail-ins, which should be about 2:1 for Biden. No point worrying there though, as the counters have been sent home to get some sleep. They haven't finished counting the votes they have, and their mail-on deadline is this evening

Just read we probably won't know Nevada until the 10th and NC until the 12th.............

Banquo wrote:Just read we probably won't know Nevada until the 10th and NC until the 12th.............

Officially, Alaska as well - all 3 because of mail-on deadlines.
Of course, Alaska won't be close anyway

Which Tyler wrote:

Banquo wrote:Just read we probably won't know Nevada until the 10th and NC until the 12th.............

Officially, Alaska as well - all 3 because of mail-on deadlines.
Of course, Alaska won't be close anyway

yep. But as you say, very unlikely Vegas and Reno postal votes will favour Trump. So looks like a done deal, given most of the MI votes awaited are from Detroit.

Then it starts to get nasty.

Just been listening to an American academic on the BBC talk very passionately about how the electoral college is an anachronism.

Given that more people voted for Hillary in 2016 and its almost certain that more people will vote for Biden this time around, its hard to disagree with that assessment.

At least unless you are a dyed in the wool Republican.

Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

Just a thought, in terms of contesting the results... Did Biden play a blinder with his grandstanding to say nothing much?

That goaded Trump to grandstand, during which he inevitably couldn't be diplomatic, and may have compromised his contesting of results by trying to call the election early and accusing fraud whilst votes are still being counted.

Which Tyler wrote:Just a thought, in terms of contesting the results... Did Biden play a blinder with his grandstanding to say nothing much?

That goaded Trump to grandstand, during which he inevitably couldn't be diplomatic, and may have compromised his contesting of results by trying to call the election early and accusing fraud whilst votes are still being counted.

Think tump was in a rage after fox called arizona for biden....he said it in speech and you could see the rage on him

Which Tyler wrote:Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

These would need to go to court to delay a clear result. If only Pennsylvania and Georgia go to court it doesn't prevent Biden winning.

Zhivago wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:Current expectations...

Nevada goes to Biden
Arizona goes to Biden
Wisconsin goes to Biden
Michigan goes to Biden
Pennsylvania goes to Trump
Georgia goes to Biden
NCarolina goes to Trump

Which puts Biden in the White House with 281-282

Pennsylvania and Georgia are both refuted and go to recount/court. Arizona and Nevada may join them in court in respect to votes currently stuck in the mail.

These would need to go to court to delay a clear result. If only Pennsylvania and Georgia go to court it doesn't prevent Biden winning.

I'd assume Michigan too?