RugbyRebels

Lizard wrote:And for a bit of completeness:

Pumas (11) to France (8)

It's a bit weird that Argentina are ranked below Japan (who hasn't beaten them since 1998) and Fiji (last won in 1987)

It's the Italy effect - they're only organising tests against sides above them and have won something like 4 games in the last 3 years.

Puja

Puja wrote:

Lizard wrote:And for a bit of completeness:

Pumas (11) to France (8)

It's a bit weird that Argentina are ranked below Japan (who hasn't beaten them since 1998) and Fiji (last won in 1987)

It's the Italy effect - they're only organising tests against sides above them and have won something like 4 games in the last 3 years.

Puja

Well, to compare, Italy are ranked 13th. The only team ranked higher who they have beaten since RWC2015 is Georgia (and their entire place in world rugby was, to an extent, riding on that match). Unlike Argentina, there are no teams ranked higher who they have not played since RWC2015.

Since RWC2015, Argentina has beaten 4 teams now ranked above them: Japan, SA (twice), France and Australia. Italy has also beaten 4 teams now ranked higher: Georgia, Fiji, Japan and SA.

The main conclusion here is that occasionally the Springboks totally shit the bed.

Lizard wrote:

Puja wrote:

Lizard wrote:And for a bit of completeness:

Pumas (11) to France (8)

It's a bit weird that Argentina are ranked below Japan (who hasn't beaten them since 1998) and Fiji (last won in 1987)

It's the Italy effect - they're only organising tests against sides above them and have won something like 4 games in the last 3 years.

Puja

Well, to compare, Italy are ranked 13th. The only team ranked higher who they have beaten since RWC2015 is Georgia (and their entire place in world rugby was, to an extent, riding on that match). Unlike Argentina, there are no teams ranked higher who they have not played since RWC2015.

Since RWC2015, Argentina has beaten 4 teams now ranked above them: Japan, SA (twice), France and Australia. Italy has also beaten 4 teams now ranked higher: Georgia, Fiji, Japan and SA.

The main conclusion here is that occasionally the Springboks totally shit the bed.

Speaking of Boks shitting the bed: https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019 ... d-cup.html

The last time the Wallabies scored nil somewhere other than Eden Park was v Wales at Cardiff, 1973.

New RWC match-ups
These pool matches will be the first time these teams have met at a RWC:
Japan v Russia
Russia v Scotland
Italy v South Africa
Argentina v USA
Australia v Georgia
Fiji v Georgia
Georgia v Wales

Most common RWC match-ups
7 matches: France v NZ
6: Aus v Eng, Aus v Wal
5: Aus v Ire, Eng v Fra, Ita v NZ, NZ v Sco, SA v Sam

Bold will occur in RWC2019 pool play

Most common pool match ups are Aust v Wales and NZ v Italy with 5 each. Both will happen again this time.

Of the 9 most likely play-off contenders (5N + RC teams), the following would be new match ups in a playoff:
Arg v Eng
Arg v Wales
Eng v Ire
Fra v Sco
Ire v NZ
Ire v Sco
Ire v SA
Sco v SA
Sco v Wales

Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini

Lizard wrote:Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini

Leguizamon played 2007 as well.

Puja

Puja wrote:

Lizard wrote:Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini

Leguizamon played 2007 as well.

Puja

Bloody good point.

Lizard wrote:

Puja wrote:

Lizard wrote:Argentina has a very experienced RWC squad.

Of the 2019 squad, 4 played in RWC2011 and RWC2015. 16 played in 2015.

2011 & 2015: Agustin Creevy, Juan Figallo, Juan Manuel Leguizamón, Nicolás Sánchez

2015 only: Guido Petti Pagadizábal, Javier Ortega Desio, Jerónimo de la Fuente, Joaquín Tuculet, Julián Montoya, Matías Alemanno, Matías Moroni, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Pablo Matera, Santiago Socino, Tomás Cubelli, Tomás Lavanini

Leguizamon played 2007 as well.

Puja

Bloody good point.

Possibly played in 1907 as well, given how old he is.

Puja

Do pre-RWC warm up games tell us anything?

In 2015:
France had 3 close warmups, a win & a loss to England and a win over Scotland. In the tournament, France beat the minnows in its pool, was comfortably beaten by Ireland in the top of the pool clash and thrashed by NZ in the QF.

England had the aforementioned close, split series with France and a moderate win over Ireland. It went on to totally shit the bed, losing narrowly to Wales and heavily to Australia and not exit the pool.

Ireland warmed up with a win & a loss to Wales, a win over Scotland and the loss to England. In the tournament they swept their pool, including an easy win over France before being humiliated by Los Pumas for their traditional QF exit.

Scotland warmed up by narrowly losing to France and Ireland, and beating Italy twice (once heavily, once not so much). At the tournament they lost to SA in the pool, and narrowly beat Samoa, before being pipped in the QF by eventual finalists Australia.

As noted, Wales split 2 games with Ireland and also scraped past Italy in August/early Sept. In the Cup they accounted for England, were not far off the pace v Aust, and were within a score of upsetting the Boks in the QF.

And if you can see any sort of predictive pattern in that lot, you’re a better stats dog than me.

Highest percentage of each nation's RWC matches by one player

Zimbabwe: Martin, 6 from 6 = 100.0%
Portugal: 10 from 2007, 4/4 = 100.0%
Russia: 9 from 2011, 4/4 = 100.0%
Ivory Coast: 13 from 1995, 3/3 = 100.0%
Spain: 9 from 1999, 3/3 = 100.0%
Georgia: Kvirikashvili , 15/16 = 93.8%
Samoa: Lima, 18/28 = 64.3%
Uruguay: 8 players from 1999/2003, 7/11 = 63.6%
Namibia: Burger/du Plessis/Horn/Jantjies/Redelinghuys, 11/19 = 57.9%
South Africa: Burger, 20/36 = 55.6%
England: Leonard, 22/44 = 50.0%
Fiji: Little, 14/28 = 50.0%
Italy: Castrogiovanni/Troncon, 14/28 = 50.0%
Romania: Gontineac/Tonita, 14/28 = 50.0%
Argentina: Ledesma, 18/37 = 48.6%
Wales: Jenkins, 18/37 = 48.6%
Ireland: POC/BOD, 17/35 = 48.6%
Canada: Cudmore/Snow, 14/29 = 48.3%
New Zealand: McCaw, 22/50 = 44.0%
Tonga: Lilo/Tonga'uiha, 11/25 = 44.0%
United States of America: McDonald/Wyles, 11/25 = 44.0%
Japan: Onozawa, 12/28 = 42.9%
Australia: Gregan, 20/48 = 41.7%
Scotland: Paterson, 15/38 = 39.5%
France: Ibanez, 18/48 = 37.5%

Most tries by forwards
33 D Ormaechea (Uru)
32 T Kikutano (Jpn)
27 R McCaw (NZ)
26 M Gorgodze (Geo)
26 K Read (NZ)

Read and Gorgodze are both playing in RWC2019. Both may well go past McCaw but are unlikely to break into the top 2.

RWC best winning and worst losing streaks
New Zealand: Winning 14*, Losing 2
Australia: W 12, L 2
South Africa: W 11, L 2**
England: W 8, L 2***
France: W 6, L 3
Argentina: W 5, L 8
Wales: W 4, L 2*
Ireland: W 4, L 3
Scotland: W 4, L 3
Italy: W 2, L 4
Canada: W 2, L 5
Samoa: W 2, L 5
Tonga: W 2, L 5
Fiji: W 2, L 6
Japan: W 2, L 13
Uruguay: W 1, L 5
Georgia: W 1, L 6
Romania: W 1, L 7
USA: W 1, L 10
Ivory Coast: W 0, L 3
Spain: W 0, L 3
Portugal: W 0, L 4
Russia: W 0, L 4*
Zimbabwe: W 0, L 6
Namibia: W 0, L 19*

I did not remember that Argentina lost every match in 1991 and 1995 (mind you, those were 16-team tournaments)

*Ongoing streak and qualified for RWC2019
**Only team to have a 2 match worst losing streak across 2 tournaments
***Only team to have 2 match worst losing streak in one pool

rowan wrote:Julian & Ardie Savea become the first brothers to score for the All Blacks in the same test - ever!

Since the above (v SA, 17.09.2016), Ardie and Julian have repeated the feat (v Samoa, 16.06.2017).

In 4 matches both Jordie and Beauden Barrett have scored, although only one of those involved both scoring a try (v Italy, 24.11.2018). Scott Barrett has scored tries in 3 matches in which Beauden has kicked goals. Scott and Jordie have not yet scored in the same match (they've played together 8 times with Beauden and once without him).

No other brothers have scored in the same test for NZ.

Heaps of good stattage in this https://tier2rugby.blogspot.com/2019/09 ... rends.html

Most tries in a RWC match

By an individual: 6, Marc Ellis v Japan 1995
By a team 22: Australia v Namibia 2003

There's been some talk of these sort of records falling, especially in Pool B, where SA and NZ come up against Namibia. Russia and Uruguay might struggle to contain the the likes of Ireland, Wales and Aussie, too.

I reality, I don't think this will happen.

Any player with 3 or 4 individual tries is likely to be subbed off these days. In 1995, substitutions were technically only allowed for injuries (tactical subs were permitted from 1996). So in Ellis's match, each team used only 1 of their 6 bench players. In 2003, Latham scored 5 in the thrashing of Namibia and was replaced by Matt Burke. So 6 tries only seems likely if two players covered by the same sub rack up a good total (like Green and Gallagher getting 4 each v Fiji in RWC1987) or there's a very late flurry once all the subs are rolled.

The team record seems unlikely to go because these days, teams well up in easy pool games tend to hold something back and ease up. In the past, they went more hard out. Since increasing the RWC to 20 teams, we have seen some evolution in the way the top sides play the minnows (In 2007 the All Blacks totally took the piss playing Hayman at lock and Mealamu at flanker against Portugal.)

Number of matches with 60+ pt margins:
1987: 2*
1995: 5*
1999: 4**
2003: 8
2007: 6
2011: 7
2015: 2

* 16-team tournament
** 20-team tournament butwith 5 4-team pools

The exception might be if, say NZ & SA draw (or cancelled due to typhoon) and need to rely on points difference to qualify to (and play a QF v Scotland instead of Ireland). That could lead to some fearful batterings.

RWC2019 Pool Match-up history

(Through to the end of Sunday 22 Sept)

Japan v Russia
All time: Japan 5, Russia 1
RWC: Never met
Last Match: 24 Nov 2018 (Gloucster), Japan 32 v Russia 27

Australia v Fiji
All time: Aus 18, Fiji 2, 1 draw
RWC: Aus 2, Fiji 0
Last Match: 10 Jun 2017 (Melbourne), Aus 37 v Fiji 14

France v Arg
All time: France 36, Arg 14, 1 draw
RWC: France 1, Arg 2
Last Match: 17 Nov 2018 (Lille), France 28, Arg 13

NZ v SA
All time: NZ 58, SA 36, 4 draws
RWC: NZ 2, SA 2
Last Match: 27 Jul 2019 (Wellington), NZ 16 v SA 16

Italy v Namibia
All time: Italy 1, Namibia 2
RWC: Never met
Last Match: 23 Jun 2001 (Windhoek), Italy 49 v Namibia 24

Ireland v Scotland
All time: Ireland 63, Scotland 67, 5 draws
RWC: Ireland 0, Scotland 1
Last Match: 9 Feb 2019 (Murrayfield), Ireland 22 v Scotland 13

England v Tonga
All time: England 2, Tonga 0
RWC: England 2, Tonga 0
Last Match: 28 Sept 2007 (Parc des Princes), England 36, Tonga 20

RWC Pool records

The All Blacks have been the sole members of the Never-Lost-a-RWC-Pool-Match Club since Argentina beat their French hosts on 7 September 2007. The overall records are:

NZ: 30 wins from 30 pool games, 100% success rate
Aust: 27/30, 90.0% (first loss 1995)
SA: 21/24, 87.5% (2003)
France: 25.5*/30, 85.0% (2007)
Eng: 24/30, 80.0% (1987)
Ire: 22/30, 73.3% (1987)
Sco: 21.5*/30, 70.0% (1995)
Wales: 20/30, 66.7% (1991)
Arg: 16/30, 53.3% (1987)
Samoa: 13/28, 46.4% (1991**)
Italy: 13/30, 43.3% (1987)
Fiji: 10/28, 35.7% (1987)
Georgia: 5/18, 27.8% (2003**)
Canada: 8*/30, 26.7% (1987)
Tonga: 7/27, 25.9% (1987)
Japan: 7/30*, 23.3% (1987)
Uruguay: 3/13, 23.1% (1999**)
Romania: 6/28, 21.4% (1987)
USA: 3/27, 11.1% (1987)
Ivory Coast: 0/3, 0.0% (1995**)
Spain: 0/3, 0.0% (1999**)
Portugal: 0/4, 0.0% (2007**)
Russia: 0/6, 0.0% (2011**)
Zimbabwe: 0/6, 0.0% (1987)
Namibia 0/21, 0.0% (1999**)

So NZ is in its 9th tournament yet to lose a pool game. Of the 24 other RWC participants, 19 dropped a pool match in their first tournament. Of the remaining 5:

France did not lose until its 6th RWC
Australia, Scotland and SA until their 3rd RWC
Wales in their 2nd

*Draws counting as half a win
**First tournament for team

France's victory over Tonga last night was the first they've managed in a Rugby World Cup year since 1995, having lost to them in at mid-year international in 1999, and famously, at the 2011 RWC pool stages.

The two tests played between the teams in non-RWC years (2005 and 2013) were both won by France.

There have been six 100+ scores in RWCs. Only one of them has been scored by the eventual champion.

1995: NZ 145 v Japan 17
1999: NZ 101 v Italy 3; Eng 101 v Tonga 10
2003: Eng 111 v Uruguay 13
2007: NZ 108 v Portugal 13

Out of the top 10 scores so far at the 2019 edition of the RWC, the top 7 have all come from Pool B, featuring the same 4 teams: NZ, South Africa, Italy, Canada and Namibia.

NZ 71 v. Namibia
SA 66 v. Canada
NZ 63 v. Canada
SA 57 v. Namibia
SA 49 v. Italy
Italy 48 v. Canada
Italy 47 v. Namibia

The next 3 highest scores are all 8th equal, at 45 points each (England's 45 points against the USA, Fiji's 45 against Georgia and Australia's 45 against Uruguay).

Japan has the highest score in Pool A, when they put 38 points on Samoa.

Lizard wrote:There have been six 100+ scores in RWCs. Only one of them has been scored by the eventual champion.

1995: NZ 145 v Japan 17
1999: NZ 101 v Italy 3; Eng 101 v Tonga 10
2003: Eng 111 v Uruguay 13
2007: NZ 108 v Portugal 13

Your list is missing the 142-0 for Aus against Namibia in 2003

cashead wrote:Out of the top 10 scores so far at the 2019 edition of the RWC, the top 7 have all come from Pool B, featuring the same 4 teams: NZ, South Africa, Italy, Canada and Namibia.

NZ 71 v. Namibia
SA 66 v. Canada
NZ 63 v. Canada
SA 57 v. Namibia
SA 49 v. Italy
Italy 48 v. Canada
Italy 47 v. Namibia

The next 3 highest scores are all 8th equal, at 45 points each (England's 45 points against the USA, Fiji's 45 against Georgia and Australia's 45 against Uruguay).

Japan has the highest score in Pool A, when they put 38 points on Samoa.

Adds extra weight to the idea of expansion to 24 teams in 2023. Not a single 100 score since 2007, only two scores over 65 in the last two tournaments - while no-one suggests the likes of Kenya, Hong Kong, Brazil, and Spain would be in any danger of winning a game, they wouldn't disgrace themselves any more than Canada have and it's be invaluable prestige for the development of the game in those countries. Not to mention that we could go to 6 pools of 4 with a second round and end the 3 day turnarounds that blight the current pool stages.

Puja

Puja wrote:Adds extra weight to the idea of expansion to 24 teams in 2023. Not a single 100 score since 2007, only two scores over 65 in the last two tournaments - while no-one suggests the likes of Kenya, Hong Kong, Brazil, and Spain would be in any danger of winning a game, they wouldn't disgrace themselves any more than Canada have and it's be invaluable prestige for the development of the game in those countries. Not to mention that we could go to 6 pools of 4 with a second round and end the 3 day turnarounds that blight the current pool stages.

Ross. S wrote:

Lizard wrote:There have been six 100+ scores in RWCs. Only one of them has been scored by the eventual champion.

1995: NZ 145 v Japan 17
1999: NZ 101 v Italy 3; Eng 101 v Tonga 10
2003: Eng 111 v Uruguay 13
2007: NZ 108 v Portugal 13

Your list is missing the 142-0 for Aus against Namibia in 2003

True. Good pick up.