RugbyRebels

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:Not sure Doug Howlett deserves to be in amongst the decline group.

Don't think it's true of our wingers. They've mainly been steady eddies.

That’s not a “decline group”. It is literally every All Black with 12+ tries on the wing (except Umaga).

Lizard wrote:

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:Not sure Doug Howlett deserves to be in amongst the decline group.

Don't think it's true of our wingers. They've mainly been steady eddies.

That’s not a “decline group”. It is literally every All Black with 12+ tries on the wing (except Umaga).

Fair enough. My mistake. I remember thinking at the time that Dougie should have started the QF.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Lizard wrote:

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:Not sure Doug Howlett deserves to be in amongst the decline group.

Don't think it's true of our wingers. They've mainly been steady eddies.

That’s not a “decline group”. It is literally every All Black with 12+ tries on the wing (except Umaga).

Fair enough. My mistake. I remember thinking at the time that Dougie should have started the QF.

Yep. And Aaron Mauger should have at least been on the bench.

Looking at the available squad, the backline should've been:

9. Byron Kelleher
10. Dan Carter
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
12. Luke McAlister
13. Conrad Smith
14. Doug Howlett
15. Mils Muliaina

and a bench of:
20. Andy Ellis
21. Aaron Mauger
22. Leon MacDonald

Okay - back onto wingers' scoring rates declining. Requests first.

Cueto: Interesting one. He had a great first season and a half, and was then persisted with for 6 more years despite really not firing. To divide his 56 tests into equal parts he got: 8 in his first 8 tests (1.00), 3 in tests 9-16 (0.38), 2 in 17-24 (0.25), 2 in 25-32 (0.25), 0 in 33-40 (0.00), 1 in 41-48 (0.13) and 4 in his last 8 (0.50) aided by a hat-trick v Romania. Career rate of 0.36.

cashead wrote:Looking at the available squad, the backline should've been:

9. Byron Kelleher
10. Dan Carter
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
12. Luke McAlister
13. Conrad Smith
14. Doug Howlett
15. Mils Muliaina

and a bench of:
20. Andy Ellis
21. Aaron Mauger
22. Leon MacDonald

Stop it. It's still too raw. Bloody Facebook showed me a "Look what you were doing 12 years ago!" photo recently and it was me and Mrs Liz, NZ flag-draped and wearing our bespoke supporters' shirts we had designed and had printed, outside a backpackers in Cardiff heading off to see us win the Quarter final. That hurt.

The shirts were good though:

Back to wingers..

May: Sort of an inverse Cueto. 3 tries in first 10 tests (0.3), 4 in second 10 (0.4), 3 in third 10 (0.3), 8 in 4th 10 (0.80), 7 in his last 9 (0.78). Overall he’s on 0.51.

Seymour: maybe fits the profile a little better. 13 tries in your first 25 tests (0.52) isn't too bad when you're playing for Scotland, I guess. 7 tries in your next 30 tests (0.23) is pretty poor, especially when 6 of those 7 were scored against Georgia, Italy, Fiji (x3) and Russia. At 31 years old he hasn't got time to pull it back either.

Lizard wrote:Back to wingers..

May: Sort of an inverse Cueto. 3 tries in first 10 tests (0.3), 4 in second 10 (0.4), 3 in third 10 (0.3), 8 in 4th 10 (0.80), 7 in his last 9 (0.78). Overall he’s on 0.51.

May's even more interesting when you consider that you can split his first 20 caps as having 0 tries from his first 7 games and 7 from his next 13.

Puja

Habana: Quite a complicated picture here. Started out with a hiss and roar with 15 tries in his first 15 tests (1.00, obvs) in 2004-05. 2006 he picked up 1 in the 3N and 1 on tour playing 10 tests all up (0.20). IN 2007 he made hay against the weaker RWC oppo and against England in November with 13 in 11 tests (1.18). He then entered a serious slump for 2008-11 when he dotted down only 10 times in 38 tests (0.26) despite facing Italy four times and Namibia and Samoa at RWC2011. His fortunes recovered in 2012-13, scoring 13 tries in 21 tests (0.62), but he had another shit year in 2014 scoring only twice (v Italy and Arg) in 11 tests (0.18). He did get 7 tries in 11 tests (0.64) in 2015, bolstered by 5 in the RWC pool including a hat-trick v USA. His final season saw a mediocre 3 tries in 7 tests (0.43). Overall rate was 0.54. and the distinct impression is that of a flat-track bully who went missing when it counted. He got only 17 tries in 49 tests v NZ and Aust (0.35). 4 scores in 7 RWC play-offs (0.57) looks OK, but that was 2 each against Arg and Samoa.

"He got only 17 tries in 49 tests v NZ and Aust (0.35)."

That's not terrible against two of the best teams in the world at the time is it?

It's not terrible, but it puts into perspective his overall career rate of 0.54.

For comparison, during Habana's career, against Oz and NZ, the higher strike rates (excluding NZ and AU players, minimum 3 tries) were by:
Jongi Nokwe: 4 in 2 (2.00)
Chris Ashton: 5 in 10 (0.50)
Marland Yarde: 3 in 6 (0.50)
Shane Williams: 6 in 14 (0.43)
Rhys Webb: 3 in 7 (0.43)
Breyton Paulse: 4 in 10 (0.40)
Francois Trinh-Duc: 3 in 8 (0.38)
Jasque Fourie: 10 tries in 28 tests (0.36)
Cedric Heymans: 4 in 11 (0.36)

Campese:63 tries in first 88 tests (0.72), 1 in his last 13 (0.08). That 1 try was his only score from 7 May 1995 to 1 December 1996. I guess you can't really say he stuck around too long, consider the previous 13 years!

Shane Williams: Doesn't fit the model. Scored 1 a test in his first 10, 8 in his second 10 and then went at 5 or 6 each set of 10 tests except for tests 31 to 10 when he only got 1, and tests 51 to 60 when he made up for that dip with 12. Career rate 0.66.

Rory Underwood: Three phase career, rather than two.Started out very slowly (2 tries in his first 10 tests) and remained non-prolific up to about when he was 13 tries off 37 tests (0.35). 5 in a match v Fiji in 1989 seems to have sparked something and he got 19 in 16 matches including that Fiji test (1.19). In his final 39 tests he reverted back to his former self, only getting 15 tries (0.38).

And finally...

North 9 in his first 12 (0.75), then only 1 in his next 10 (0.1) bringing his over all record to 10 in 22 (0.45). His strike rate from then until now is 31 off 70 (0.44) and has stayed pretty much the same (between 0.39 and 0.48, 0) over that whole period.

Pool stage stats, that could've been timelier:

New Zealand stand alone as the one country that has come first in their respective pools in every tournament since 1987, reflective of the fact that they have won every pool fixture that they've played.

Statistically, the next best will be the Springboks, who topped their respective pools in 1995, 1999, 2007, 2011 and 2015, giving them a 5 out of 7 record. Their pool stage defeat in 2003 was to eventual winners England (who managed a Tri Nations cleansweep that year), during a period of relative weakness in the early 2000s. Similarly, their 2019 outcome can be seen as a consequence of their poor form immediately after the 2015 RWC, where their performances seemed to fall off a cliff during their horror season of 2016. South Africa were also the second team to ever top a pool despite losing a game in 2015, which also indicates just how close the competition was in Pool B four years ago.

Australia, as reflected by their World Cup record, have done well here, only failing to top their pool stage on 3 occasions, giving them a record of 6 out of 9. Some interesting things to note: there is some indication in Australia's recent decline in their pool stage performances, as prior to the 2011 tournament, they had failed to top their pool just the once - in 1995, when eventual winners South Africa beat them in the opening fixture. In the three tournaments played in the 2010s, Australia have only topped their pool on one occasion - 2015, when they were grouped with a Welsh team that seemed to be unable to get the job done against them, and a disappointing England team that failed to cope with playing a tournament at home.

France topped their pool in the first 5 tournaments, and has failed to do so since 2007 - although based on 2011, this has not stopped them from making the finals every 12 years like clockwork. They were also the first team to top their pool and fail to progress beyond the quarters in 1991 (the pool winners in 1987 all made the semifinals).

England have been the next best performers, topping their pool on 4 different occasions. They are also the first team to have made the finals despite not coming first in the pool stages, coming 2nd in a pool that included the All Blacks in 1991, only to make the finals. This means they also played a final before they were able to come first in their pool at a World Cup. Since 1995, they've also come first in their pool every other tournament, which means they'll probably lose a game at the pool stages in 2023 if the pattern holds.

Wales have come first in their pool on 3 occasions - 87, 99 and 2019. They also became the first team to top their pool while also losing a fixture in 1999, where they got through off the back of points differential.

Ireland have achieved it twice, coming first in 2011 and 2015, which also reflects how recent their dominance has been. At this stage, they have also been the consistently worst performing pool stage winners, failing to progress beyond the quarters on both occasions (although in all fairness, there were significant extenuating factors in 2015).

Scotland and Argentina have managed to come first in their pools on just 1 occasion each - 1991 and 2007 respectively. Both teams went on to make the semifinals.

Other observations include:
There has been an even split between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere on 5 occasions. 1987, 1991, 1995, 2003 and 2011 all saw each Hemisphere get 2 pool winners each.

2007 featured all 4 pools being won by Southern Hemisphere teams, while 2015 and 1999 featured a majority of SH teams (the weird 5 pool structure saw all three Tri Nations teams coming first in their pools, while the other two were won by France and Wales).

2019 is the first tournament in which the majority of the pool groups were won by NH teams. It is also the first time a Tier 2 team has won a pool (although arguably, Japan's current position is largely consistent with Argentina around 2007: too big for their local region, and starved of consistent fixtures against Tier 1 sides, against whom they are, at the very least, reasonably competitive).

Five Irishmen have now joined three other players who have lost three RWC quarter-finals. None of these poor chaps have ever won a QF:

N Francis (Ire), 1987-95
B Mullin (Ire), 1987-95
K Logan (Sco), 1995-2003
R Best (Ire), 2011-19
K Earls (Ire), 2011-19
C Healy (Ire), 2011-19
R Kearney (Ire), 2011-19

Three All Blacks have equaled the record of most QFs without losing one, now shared by:

S Fitzpatrick (NZ), 1987-1995
I Jones (NZ), 1991-99
J du Randt (SA), 1995-2007
C Dominici (Fra), 1999-2007
R Ibanez (Fra), 1999-2007
I Harinordoquy (Fra), 2003-11
K Mealamu (NZ), 2003-15
K Read (NZ), 2011-2019
S Whitelock (NZ), 2011-2019
S Williams (NZ), 2011-2019

S Whitelock has an outside chance of extending that record at the next World Cup although I suspect he'll be gone by then

Cameo wrote:S Whitelock has an outside chance of extending that record at the next World Cup although I suspect he'll be gone by then

He’s signed on to 2023, and will turn 35 during that tournament. So it’s possible but unlikely looking at the average retirement age of AB locks.

Recent(ish) retired All Black locks have played their last tests aged as follows:
Thorn*: 36
Romano: 31
Williams: 31
Robinson: 30
Thrush: 30
Flavell: 30
Jack: 29
Donnelly: 29
Maxwell: 28
Willis:27
Boric: 27
Eaton: 27

*Obviously a freak

Here's a couple I've just noticed:

Dane Coles and Codie Taylor are tied on 11 tries each, one behind the record for an All Blacks hooker currently shared by Fitzpatrick and Mealamu on 12 each.

Kieran Read has 26 tries (all scored at No. 8) which is 1 behind McCaw's record of 27 for an All Black forward (26 scored on the flank, 1 at No. 8)

Lizard wrote:

cashead wrote:Looking at the available squad, the backline should've been:

9. Byron Kelleher
10. Dan Carter
11. Sitiveni Sivivatu
12. Luke McAlister
13. Conrad Smith
14. Doug Howlett
15. Mils Muliaina

and a bench of:
20. Andy Ellis
21. Aaron Mauger
22. Leon MacDonald

Stop it. It's still too raw. Bloody Facebook showed me a "Look what you were doing 12 years ago!" photo recently and it was me and Mrs Liz, NZ flag-draped and wearing our bespoke supporters' shirts we had designed and had printed, outside a backpackers in Cardiff heading off to see us win the Quarter final. That hurt.

The shirts were good though:

I had a seat three rows from the roof and dead in line with the michelak pass. Yes that one. Even the french fans around us couldn’t believe it was let go. They were great sports about the whole night.

I wish I hadn’t replied to my Welsh friends half time text to the effect that being behind was all cool and that we would pull effortlessly away in the final quarter.

I have a stat request for you if you fancy it Lizard.

I keep reading that NZ are a team that kick a lot but I think a lot of it is based on some stats from years ago. Is it still true and, if so, is it still true if you don't count things like kick passes (as opposed to contestable cross kicks) and dinks near the line?

Basically, the claim is used to argue that New Zealand are a territory team and gain the territory by kicking but I'm not sure that is true.

Depends on the little voice, don't kick it, pass it, or, don't pass it, kick it.

Bronze Finals

The most pointless game in the World Cup Cycle (except perhaps the Asia 1/Oceania 4 play-off eliminator) is nearly upon us. NZ has the statistical edge here with greater experience and a better overall record:

South Africa: 2 wins from 2 matches (100%)
New Zealand: 2 wins from 3 (67%)
Argentina, Australia, Wales: 1 win from 2 (50%)
France: 1 from 3 (33%)
England, Scotland: 0 wins from 1 (0%)