Ireland v All Blacks II: the Greenwash or the Blacklash?

[Lizard]

This will be tasty.

On the one hand, there will be some very experienced members of the Team Formerly Known as the Most Dominant in The World who will want to do everything they can to extract revenge. It is an impossible task to completely remove the stain of being the first ever All Blacks to lose to Ireland, but a solid win would be a good start. (Judging by the Welsh experience, the stigma starts to fade if we can beat them a couple of dozen times over 50 or 60 years without another loss.) The All Blacks have also developed a habit of following up a loss or a close-run thing with a serious step-up against the same opposition (e.g. Aussie 2014 & 2015, Ireland in 2012). I’m not sure how much of this is based on the personal attributed of the players and how much on the analysis of the poor performance and the consequential remedial work done.

On the other hand, Ireland did not win through the luck of the bounce, or passion on the day. They played the right game plan with great skill and determination. Their preparation was clearly excellent. There is no reason to think they will not be able to perform to that level again. Perhaps the only question mark is whether having achieved that remarkable result, there might be a degree of feeling that “the job’s done” amongst the Irish? I suspect that the opposite will be true. This team will not want their historic win to be seen as some sort of fluke or "plucky" flash–in-the-pan (see Japan v SA) but a true statement of their abilities.

Both sides ran B-sides against limited opposition over the weekend. Both will be putting out their best available XXIII regardless of any previous plans, I'm sure. I reckon Shag would rather lose to Ireland and France than to Ireland twice. Equally, Schmidt would consider a lost to Australia as more than compensated for by unprecedented Irish back-to-back wins* against the mighty All Blacks.

Assuming Whitelock is fit, the NZ pack picks itself as does Taylor In the reserves. For the balance of the fatties bench, you get two from Tu'ungafasi, Faumuina and Crockett. I like the first two but I'm relying on my recollection that they can each play both sides. Backing up the engine room, As effective as S. Barrett's introduction to the team has been, surely you go with experience and have Tuipulotu. Loose forward cover is a bit trickier. Savea is an impact talent but Squire's work rate is good and he has a habit of turning up in the right places. I think the added flexibility Squire provides edges it.

In the backs, I think we saw Dunny Smith regain some confidence so I would start him but be prepared to yank him for TJP at 40 if he isn't sparking. Cruden and Sopoaga both looked fine but dropping Barrett would be a huge call. His goal-kicking remains a worry, which perhaps favours Sopoaga slightly ahead as the bench option? (I'm not certain Shag will agree with me here.) The Savea/Naholo double threat thing was exposed defensively by Ireland's kicking. I would revert to Savea/Dagg/B. Smith as a back three - unfair perhaps on Naholo. Lienert-Brown is the answer at 12, with Fekitoa really the last man standing at 13. The final seat on the bus is toss-up between Reiko Ioane and Seta Tamanivalu. (McKenzie didn’t do enough v Italy to demand inclusion and leave us short of proper mid-field cover.) As the original squad member, presumably Ioane goes in.

Predicted squad:

1. J. P. T. Moody
2. D. S. Coles
3. O. T. Franks
4. B. A. Retallick
5. S. L. Whitelock
6. J. Kaino
7. S. J. Cane
8. K. J. Read (C)
9. A. L. Smith
10. B. J. Barrett
11. S. J. Savea
12. A. Lienert-Brown
13. M. F. Fekitoa
14. W I. J. A. Dagg
15. B. R. Smith

16. C. J. D. Taylor
17. O. Tu'ungafasi
18. C. Faumuina
19. P. T. Tuipulotu
20. L. I. Squire
21. T. T. R. Perenara
22. L.I Sopoaga
23. R. Ioane

*No one has achieved this since 2009

[WaspInWales]

Ireland by 50 points!

[Lizard]

Ireland by 50 points!

I'll take that bet.

[zer0]

Ireland's great weapon in Chicago was attacking our lineout. With a return to a fully operational lineout, Ireland should have a much harder time getting the field position they enjoyed last time. Similarly, once Barrett came on, we were able to disrupt their lineout and should be able to do so from the off this weekend. Add in a return to the sensible dual-fullback model, and Ireland shouldn't get the same mileage out of their kicking game as they did in Chicago. Those changes alone could lead to a very different dynamic this weekend.

Predicted squad:

1. J. P. T. Moody
2. D. S. Coles
3. O. T. Franks
4. B. A. Retallick
5. S. L. Whitelock
6. J. Kaino
7. S. J. Cane
8. K. J. Read (C)
9. A. L. Smith
10. B. J. Barrett
11. S. J. Savea
12. A. Lienert-Brown
13. M. F. Fekitoa
14. W I. J. A. Dagg
15. B. R. Smith

16. C. J. D. Taylor
17. O. Tu'ungafasi
18. C. Faumuina
19. P. T. Tuipulotu
20. L. I. Squire
21. T. T. R. Perenara
22. L.I Sopoaga
23. R. Ioane

Crockett ahead of Tu'ungafasi for mine. If Whitelock is unavailable then I can see Barrett starting, with Tuipulotu on the bench, either way. I am/we are, of course, assuming that Hansen will carry specialist lock cover, and won't provide lock cover on the cheap (Kaino) so as to get another loose forward on the bench (A.Savea). Speaking of which, Todd has been performing very well in his limited chances and I'd like to see him start, but it won't happen.

On the backs, halfback is a conundrum indeed. Smith has been out of sorts since his stand down, and starting him risks enduring another poor start, as we did in Chicago. I'd start Perenara, but it'll probably be Smith. This isn't too much of a biggie for mine. As long as Kerr-Barlow isn't playing, anyway. While I'd enjoy seeing Sopoaga get a run, I don't see it happening, unfortunately. As you say, the strike wing position is a toss-up between Naholo and Savea. He's been hit and miss, but Naholo has at least been getting involved, whereas Savea has just sat around doing nothing (too complacent, again?). I'd start Naholo, in that basis.

All in all, I'm looking forward to this one.

[J Dory]

Sopoaga ahead of Cruden for me, he's due his shot.

[hellovating]

There should be a couple of changes to the Irish 23 from Chicago, at least on the bench. Peter O'Mahony and Sean O'Brien will probably fight it out for the vacant back row spot (Jordi Murphy is out for the season after rupturing his ACL in Chicago). Either of them, or Josh Van der flier could start, with one on the bench. Could be a change in the second row too, Iain Henderson is back, though I have a feeling he;ll be held back for Australia. Ultan Dillane could force his way into the starting 15, after being named man of the match against Canada.

In the backs, it will probably be the same again, with Keith Earls coming onto the bench. I would still prefer Payne at 15 and Ringrose partnering Henshaw in midfield, but that probably won't happen.

My guess....

15. Kearney, 14. Trimble, 13. Payne, 12. Henshaw, 11, Zebo, 10. Sexton, 9. Murray
8. Heaslip, 7. O'Brien, 6. Stander, 5. Ryan, 4. Toner, 3. Furlong, 2. Best (c), 1. McGrath

16. Cronin, 17. Healy, 18. Bealham, 19. Dillane, 20. Van Der Flier, 21. Marmion, 22. Jackson, 23. Earls

1 changed to the starting lineup (enforced) and 2 changes in the replacement backs.

[scuzzaman]

Ireland's great weapon in Chicago was attacking our lineout.

Ireland's great weapon in Chicago was the complacency of the All Blacks. Both the team and the management thought they could just show up and collect the prize.

The poor discipline, the consistent lack of application and focus throughout the game, and the failure to adjust on-field tactics; all speak to a side and a leadership that didn't prepare to be seriously challenged.

I don't know if the management deliberately risked this loss in order to jolt the team out of such complacency, and nor do I really care. But I expect better.

In the words of the Irish captain, I'll be watching to see we get the performance we deserve, not the result.

[hellovating]

New Zealand: Ben Smith, Israel Dagg, Malakai Fekitoa, Anton Lienert-Brown, Julian Savea, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Smith, Kieran Read (captain), Sam Cane, Liam Squire, Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Owen Franks, Dane Coles, Joe Moody

Replacements: Codie Taylor, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumuina, Scott Barrett, Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara, Aaron Cruden, Waisake Naholo

[dk4]

So Kaino does not even make the bench and Naholo is covering the backs.
What is the forum opinion about Squire?
Could we have selected a more utility option instead of Naholo?

And Barrett covering lock from bench..

[zer0]

So Kaino does not even make the bench and Naholo is covering the backs.
What is the forum opinion about Squire?
Could we have selected a more utility option instead of Naholo?

And Barrett covering lock from bench..

Out injured, I believe. As for Squire, I think he's a much, much better #8 than he is a blindside. All of his best test rugby has come when he's let the mullet run free in open space, or over people. Thanks to his versatility, Luatua would've been better option to start or sit on the bench, but I his fitness problems against Italy wouldn't have helped his cause much.

[hellovating]

Ireland: Rob Kearney, Andrew Trimble, Rob Henshaw, Jared Payne, Simon Zebo, Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray; Jack McGrath, Rory Best (capt), Tadhg Furlong, Devin Toner, Donnacha Ryan, CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip.

Replacements: Sean Cronin, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier, Kieran Marmion, Paddy Jackson, Garry Ringrose.

[Spy]

Looks a better balanced NZ side.

[Lizard]

Seems a little short of midfield cover.

[Len]

Much better side

[Spiffy]

Looks a better balanced NZ side.

It is. Lucky for Ireland that Kaino is out. Cane and Squires are good, but not outstanding, flankers. The backrow battle might just shade this game. Stander is in great form and O'Brien will be out to nail back his starting slot. I think it will be a close one.

[Lizard]

I'm a bit concerned that the strength we usually get off the bench will be a bit lacking.

[Spy]

Seems a little short of midfield cover.

I agree that Naholo is very much a winger. If he comes on for anyone other than Savea or Dagg then the players on the field will need to be shuffled. Just wondering who else we could have picked, though? Crotty and Moala are gone. ALB and Fekitoa might be the only midfielders left in the squad.

[Lizard]

Ioane can play centre

[Eugene Wrayburn]

My money is on Blacklash. I hope that I'm wrong but I'm thinking a 20 point loss.

[Len]

ABs need to get into the game faster. Can't let Ireland get a headstart again. If they can do that and go into half time in the lead then I'd say a win is on the cards.

[Len]

Great start. More of that. Great pressure.

[dk4]

unlucky tackle. not Kane's fault.

Hope Irish player is ok.

[morepork]

Their loosies are rampaging. Need tto stamp that shit out.

[Len]

Irish commentators asking for a red minimum yellow. Fuck off idiots.

[morepork]

He bounced off Reid and into Cane. No headhunting going on at all.