Why Boks will Win 2019 WC
Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2017 1:35 pm
To be honest, it would be great for the sport if they did. We'd have that old SA v NZ rivalry back at its peak, with 3 titles each and the All Blacks knocked off their perch for a while at least:
There will be no shortage of disagreement with this post, so let me enter with the following disclaimer: I am not suggesting they will beat the All Blacks, Wallabies or England during any regular seasonal tours for the next three years. I am saying that they will be in form to win the Rugby World Cup, in 2019. If they lose every game for the next two years, but maintain the current development trajectory, they will win it.
Below is why.
1. They have unnoticed depth, which will come into form at the right time.
It's almost too easy to point at the best players in Australia, England, and New Zealand. The recent drawn Lions series has informed the Southern Hemisphere audience of the talent apparent in Ireland too. There is no challenge is stating where the key members of each squad are in preparation for the Rugby World Cup. Usually one or two players emerge in that time - like Beauden Barrett or Israel Folau in 2013. But the meat of each side is generally realised well in advance.
With the springboks, this is less so. It could be for a variety of reasons - Super Rugby broadcasting times for South African based games; a lack of willingness to watch anyone other than our domestic teams. But the current crop of Springboks is building in both depth and form under the radar of much international commentary. Everyone know's who Eben Etzebeth is, but players like Combrinck, Marx, and Mohoje barely hit the radar.
Perhaps I'm not drinking at the right pub, or maybe it's the fact that a Lions series just toured, but I hear very little discussion about the form of the playing group in South Africa. To be honest, I normally couldn't care - I tend to focus too much on the Wallabies/All Blacks rivalry. A hang up of being a Wallabies fan, perhaps. But there is good reason to pay attention to South Africa. They are building a World Cup squad with serious potential in every key position.
There are four world class playmakers occupying spots in the South African Super Rugby franchises. And by World Class, I mean capable of leading the Springboks all the way to the Final in 2019. The old Stalwart is the still young Handre Pollard; the steady hand of their 2015 campaign, which only narrowly went down to New Zealand in the semi final 18-20. He's occupied a sleepy Bulls outfit for the past two seasons, but there is every bit of experience and talent in Pollard to spell danger again.
Elton Jantjies is the current selected Fly-half of a dominant Lions outfit. He is a running fly-half, who has proven useful in scoring tries as much as setting them up. Jantjies works within a forward dominant style of play, and he likes feeding attack from depth. Pat Lambie is currently injured, but started the season leading the sharks to a narrow loss against the Red's at Suncorp before building to beat the Brumbies in Canberra, and dismantling a host of sides back in Durban. Lambie is a brilliant kick, with two World Cup campaigns worth of experience behind him. Curwin Bosch, in my opinion, is the future of Springbok play making. He made his Super Rugby debut against the Waratahs, and had a damaging impact on the Australian franchise. He's fast, and deadly with the boot. Bosch needs to be blooded by the Springboks before he's given the responsibility of a World Cup, but he will be essential to their 2019 preparation. If you haven't watched this kid play rugby, you're missing out.
The Springboks are loaded with hungry outside backs. Jesse Kriel, Johan Janse van Rensburg, Ruan Combrinck, Raymond Rhule, Courtnall Skosane and Jan Serfontein all have a point to prove. The forward back is also heaving with young hungry talent including Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert, Lood de Jager and Oupa Mohoje, Jaco Kriel, Ruan Dreyer and Warren Whiteley. Watching the Lions pull apart the Brumbies forwards in Canberra this year was a demonstration in forcing turnovers, and controlling possession.
2. Their competition is peaking, two years too early.
The current competition is England and the All Blacks. Both teams are going to have great squads for the World Cup. Each has brilliantly structured play, which over the past two seasons has resulted in sustained victories. They have a great product, and employ a terrific method. However I also see two teams juggling for the top of a mountain with very distinct styles of play. They have been refining strategies, and will continue to spend the next two years perfecting every minor detail to maintain form.
The Springboks are not in the same league right now, and they don't need to be. What matters for them is the unification of the player group to refine an optimum combination in Japan. Watching their Super Rugby teams you might not see the flashy combinations in the New Zealand franchises, but you will see players attacking from depth in the Sharks, Bulls, Lions, and Stormers. Feeding ball to players moving at speed sounds rather pedestrian - but watch the Australian franchises play. You would think there is a tactic in standing still. Flat footed ball has never won a game, and it never will.
The All Blacks run at pace, and they support - so what's the secret for the Springboks? Simple. No one has been challenging the All Blacks until the Lions series this year (let's put last years Ireland loss in Chicago down to an off-day). While the Lions did well to push for the drawn series, they were not the All Blacks greatest challenge. There were times during that series where it felt like New Zealand were their own worst enemies. The Lions series confirmed that the All Blacks are beatable; not that the Lions were a good team. There is a clear different.
The Springboks player-group is showing signs of consistently improvement (post 2015 World Cup). This only matters because they are developing greater consistency in their game. The Springboks are a great rugby team, but they have played a lot like Australia between World Cups over the past two decades: ambling throughout a few seasons before igniting for the occasion. The All Blacks have been significantly more consistent. With the Springboks showing signs of developing their player-group in long-term "team" oriented skill sets, they mark danger approaching 2019.
If evidence is needed - look at Springbok World Cup performances. Australia played the game of their lives to beat them in 1999, New Zealand put together some Wizardry to knock them out in 2003. They controlled England and the competition in 2007 (reminding me of the Wallabies win in 99). They went down by less than a try to the Wallabies in 2011, and were defeated by an even slimmer margins to All Blacks in 2015. This is a team which can shit the bed three years prior, and then arrive with a genuine shot for the Cup. I'm seeing the Springboks currently play a brand of Rugby they normally wouldn't start putting together until a year from now.
3. The Pool Structure
2019 Pool B makes the 2015 "Pool of Death" look like child's play. Italy wont survive, neither will whomever occupies "Africa 1" or "Repechage Winner". It's about New Zealand/South Africa. Because the key is this: the Springboks don't have to win that game, New Zealand do.
We can't predict who will win or be runner up in every group - but there are strong indications of the contenders. Despite the absence of an official draw as the pools remain to be finished, the quarter final structure has been the same at every World Cup:
Winner of B always faces the Runner up of A
Winner of C always faces the Runner up of D
These teams then always face each other in Semi Final 1
Winner of D always faces the Runner up of C
Winner of A always faces the Runner up of B
These teams then always face each other in Semi Final 2
So if the All Blacks win their Pool, they will likely face Scotland in the quarter, and England in the Semi. If they lose, it will be Ireland in the quarter final, and either Australia or Argentina in the Semi. The pool structure always ensures that some teams have a harder fight on their hands than others. New Zealand has always had a fairly straight forward pool, owing to their long held number one ranking and the absence of leading nations to fall below the top 5.
Having South Africa alongside in the pool is a challenge New Zealand has never faced. As mentioned above, at every World Cup the Springboks turn up for the big games. If they are defeated, it's by very little. During the pool game one of two things will happen. If South Africa wins, it will damage the mindset of the All Blacks, and they will face an uphill battle against their knock-out stage opponents whom will all smell blood, and have a renewed belief in their ability to become giant killers.
If the Springboks lose, it won't be by much. This will generate pressure for the All Blacks before they have traditionally experienced it. This will give England further strategic confidence toward the Semi Final. The Springboks will then re-group, patch the gaps, and then make their way through the to the Semi-Final against Australia/Argentina.
I see opportunity here for South Africa. I also see nothing but pressure for New Zealand.
4. The way South African players are moving and improving.
Rugby Union in many ways shares a philosophy commonplace in professional sports. Rugby is at heart a simple game made complicated by experts. We can all get lost in elaborate set piece plays, and tricky passing - but what wins games is ensuring success in best practices. I mentioned above that the current South African player group is showing strength toward best practices. Remember, the key is their rapid rate of improvement across all areas. Here is what I'm talking about:
Possession
You can't win the game if you don't have the ball. Possession is everything in Rugby. The Lions understand this better than most. When they have the ball, they are protecting it. When defending, they are trying to force turnovers - both in the ruck and through isolating attacking players into forced mauls.
Attack from depth
The Lions and Sharks run hard from depth. Flat footed attack will never break the England, or All Black line. The forwards are young, strong, and very fit. Over the next two years they will refine the combinations and determine the strongest pack to deliver on the strategy. The player group thinking of themselves as fast-paced battering rams may sound simplistic, but the collective focus on the "simple" is what inevitably works.
Support
South African players are getting better at supporting in both attack, and defence. They are protecting breakdowns well, feeding off into support, and disrupting play through a clever use of forced mauls. They are becoming better and better at isolating the opposition for one reasons - they all known they always need to support. It is not a finished product yet, but it will be.
Winning the World Cup is not about having the best record leading up to the World Cup. There is more than enough evidence to support this.
https://www.rugbytimes.co/single-post/2 ... -World-Cup
There will be no shortage of disagreement with this post, so let me enter with the following disclaimer: I am not suggesting they will beat the All Blacks, Wallabies or England during any regular seasonal tours for the next three years. I am saying that they will be in form to win the Rugby World Cup, in 2019. If they lose every game for the next two years, but maintain the current development trajectory, they will win it.
Below is why.
1. They have unnoticed depth, which will come into form at the right time.
It's almost too easy to point at the best players in Australia, England, and New Zealand. The recent drawn Lions series has informed the Southern Hemisphere audience of the talent apparent in Ireland too. There is no challenge is stating where the key members of each squad are in preparation for the Rugby World Cup. Usually one or two players emerge in that time - like Beauden Barrett or Israel Folau in 2013. But the meat of each side is generally realised well in advance.
With the springboks, this is less so. It could be for a variety of reasons - Super Rugby broadcasting times for South African based games; a lack of willingness to watch anyone other than our domestic teams. But the current crop of Springboks is building in both depth and form under the radar of much international commentary. Everyone know's who Eben Etzebeth is, but players like Combrinck, Marx, and Mohoje barely hit the radar.
Perhaps I'm not drinking at the right pub, or maybe it's the fact that a Lions series just toured, but I hear very little discussion about the form of the playing group in South Africa. To be honest, I normally couldn't care - I tend to focus too much on the Wallabies/All Blacks rivalry. A hang up of being a Wallabies fan, perhaps. But there is good reason to pay attention to South Africa. They are building a World Cup squad with serious potential in every key position.
There are four world class playmakers occupying spots in the South African Super Rugby franchises. And by World Class, I mean capable of leading the Springboks all the way to the Final in 2019. The old Stalwart is the still young Handre Pollard; the steady hand of their 2015 campaign, which only narrowly went down to New Zealand in the semi final 18-20. He's occupied a sleepy Bulls outfit for the past two seasons, but there is every bit of experience and talent in Pollard to spell danger again.
Elton Jantjies is the current selected Fly-half of a dominant Lions outfit. He is a running fly-half, who has proven useful in scoring tries as much as setting them up. Jantjies works within a forward dominant style of play, and he likes feeding attack from depth. Pat Lambie is currently injured, but started the season leading the sharks to a narrow loss against the Red's at Suncorp before building to beat the Brumbies in Canberra, and dismantling a host of sides back in Durban. Lambie is a brilliant kick, with two World Cup campaigns worth of experience behind him. Curwin Bosch, in my opinion, is the future of Springbok play making. He made his Super Rugby debut against the Waratahs, and had a damaging impact on the Australian franchise. He's fast, and deadly with the boot. Bosch needs to be blooded by the Springboks before he's given the responsibility of a World Cup, but he will be essential to their 2019 preparation. If you haven't watched this kid play rugby, you're missing out.
The Springboks are loaded with hungry outside backs. Jesse Kriel, Johan Janse van Rensburg, Ruan Combrinck, Raymond Rhule, Courtnall Skosane and Jan Serfontein all have a point to prove. The forward back is also heaving with young hungry talent including Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert, Lood de Jager and Oupa Mohoje, Jaco Kriel, Ruan Dreyer and Warren Whiteley. Watching the Lions pull apart the Brumbies forwards in Canberra this year was a demonstration in forcing turnovers, and controlling possession.
2. Their competition is peaking, two years too early.
The current competition is England and the All Blacks. Both teams are going to have great squads for the World Cup. Each has brilliantly structured play, which over the past two seasons has resulted in sustained victories. They have a great product, and employ a terrific method. However I also see two teams juggling for the top of a mountain with very distinct styles of play. They have been refining strategies, and will continue to spend the next two years perfecting every minor detail to maintain form.
The Springboks are not in the same league right now, and they don't need to be. What matters for them is the unification of the player group to refine an optimum combination in Japan. Watching their Super Rugby teams you might not see the flashy combinations in the New Zealand franchises, but you will see players attacking from depth in the Sharks, Bulls, Lions, and Stormers. Feeding ball to players moving at speed sounds rather pedestrian - but watch the Australian franchises play. You would think there is a tactic in standing still. Flat footed ball has never won a game, and it never will.
The All Blacks run at pace, and they support - so what's the secret for the Springboks? Simple. No one has been challenging the All Blacks until the Lions series this year (let's put last years Ireland loss in Chicago down to an off-day). While the Lions did well to push for the drawn series, they were not the All Blacks greatest challenge. There were times during that series where it felt like New Zealand were their own worst enemies. The Lions series confirmed that the All Blacks are beatable; not that the Lions were a good team. There is a clear different.
The Springboks player-group is showing signs of consistently improvement (post 2015 World Cup). This only matters because they are developing greater consistency in their game. The Springboks are a great rugby team, but they have played a lot like Australia between World Cups over the past two decades: ambling throughout a few seasons before igniting for the occasion. The All Blacks have been significantly more consistent. With the Springboks showing signs of developing their player-group in long-term "team" oriented skill sets, they mark danger approaching 2019.
If evidence is needed - look at Springbok World Cup performances. Australia played the game of their lives to beat them in 1999, New Zealand put together some Wizardry to knock them out in 2003. They controlled England and the competition in 2007 (reminding me of the Wallabies win in 99). They went down by less than a try to the Wallabies in 2011, and were defeated by an even slimmer margins to All Blacks in 2015. This is a team which can shit the bed three years prior, and then arrive with a genuine shot for the Cup. I'm seeing the Springboks currently play a brand of Rugby they normally wouldn't start putting together until a year from now.
3. The Pool Structure
2019 Pool B makes the 2015 "Pool of Death" look like child's play. Italy wont survive, neither will whomever occupies "Africa 1" or "Repechage Winner". It's about New Zealand/South Africa. Because the key is this: the Springboks don't have to win that game, New Zealand do.
We can't predict who will win or be runner up in every group - but there are strong indications of the contenders. Despite the absence of an official draw as the pools remain to be finished, the quarter final structure has been the same at every World Cup:
Winner of B always faces the Runner up of A
Winner of C always faces the Runner up of D
These teams then always face each other in Semi Final 1
Winner of D always faces the Runner up of C
Winner of A always faces the Runner up of B
These teams then always face each other in Semi Final 2
So if the All Blacks win their Pool, they will likely face Scotland in the quarter, and England in the Semi. If they lose, it will be Ireland in the quarter final, and either Australia or Argentina in the Semi. The pool structure always ensures that some teams have a harder fight on their hands than others. New Zealand has always had a fairly straight forward pool, owing to their long held number one ranking and the absence of leading nations to fall below the top 5.
Having South Africa alongside in the pool is a challenge New Zealand has never faced. As mentioned above, at every World Cup the Springboks turn up for the big games. If they are defeated, it's by very little. During the pool game one of two things will happen. If South Africa wins, it will damage the mindset of the All Blacks, and they will face an uphill battle against their knock-out stage opponents whom will all smell blood, and have a renewed belief in their ability to become giant killers.
If the Springboks lose, it won't be by much. This will generate pressure for the All Blacks before they have traditionally experienced it. This will give England further strategic confidence toward the Semi Final. The Springboks will then re-group, patch the gaps, and then make their way through the to the Semi-Final against Australia/Argentina.
I see opportunity here for South Africa. I also see nothing but pressure for New Zealand.
4. The way South African players are moving and improving.
Rugby Union in many ways shares a philosophy commonplace in professional sports. Rugby is at heart a simple game made complicated by experts. We can all get lost in elaborate set piece plays, and tricky passing - but what wins games is ensuring success in best practices. I mentioned above that the current South African player group is showing strength toward best practices. Remember, the key is their rapid rate of improvement across all areas. Here is what I'm talking about:
Possession
You can't win the game if you don't have the ball. Possession is everything in Rugby. The Lions understand this better than most. When they have the ball, they are protecting it. When defending, they are trying to force turnovers - both in the ruck and through isolating attacking players into forced mauls.
Attack from depth
The Lions and Sharks run hard from depth. Flat footed attack will never break the England, or All Black line. The forwards are young, strong, and very fit. Over the next two years they will refine the combinations and determine the strongest pack to deliver on the strategy. The player group thinking of themselves as fast-paced battering rams may sound simplistic, but the collective focus on the "simple" is what inevitably works.
Support
South African players are getting better at supporting in both attack, and defence. They are protecting breakdowns well, feeding off into support, and disrupting play through a clever use of forced mauls. They are becoming better and better at isolating the opposition for one reasons - they all known they always need to support. It is not a finished product yet, but it will be.
Winning the World Cup is not about having the best record leading up to the World Cup. There is more than enough evidence to support this.
https://www.rugbytimes.co/single-post/2 ... -World-Cup
