‘I think rugby will die in five-10 years if we do nothing’

[fivepointer]

Thoughtful, interesting piece in the Guardian about the current state of the game worldwide. All isnt well.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/ ... ca-decline

Because, without any question, a permanently sub-par Springboks side dangerously weakens the whole of Test rugby. The international game is not commercially bulletproof worldwide and relies on its trusty mix of delicious anticipation and competitive tension to keep interest alive. Increasingly the Boks are struggling on both counts: they have lost 14 of their last 16 Tests against the All Blacks, their once-impregnable aura has evaporated, many of their best players have relocated to clubs overseas to earn more money and even their most ardent fans are wondering aloud if their days as a rugby superpower are gone for good. One of South Africa’s most seasoned observers expressed it perfectly: Saturday was South Africa’s darkest night, and there may not be a dawn.

Worse still is the fear that many of the hyenas circling the stricken Boks are weakening themselves. Australia, despite a slight recent upturn, are struggling even to woo their own supporters, never mind the rest of the world – a crowd of 14,229 turned up to watch their first Test in Canberra in seven years last weekend. Argentina, for their part, have lost 13 of the last 15 Tests, beating only Japan and Georgia, with their policy of picking only homegrown players threatening to unravel completely.

Then there is the United States where, as underlined in Pennsylvania at the weekend, 15-a-side rugby only really appears to catch the mass imagination when the All Blacks pitch up in Chicago. Sevens may yet prove a different story but its confirmation last week as a guaranteed Olympic sport until 2024 at least could destabilise the traditional game even more, as is happening with Twenty20 and Test cricket.

And so it goes on: France have won the Six Nations just once in the past decade, Samoa have been slipping backwards, the spectre of concussion and player welfare in general still stalks the sport, the professional players of the Premiership are muttering about strike action, the Pro14 is expanding because the alternative is too horrible to think about and none of the big English clubs are making a significant profit either.

[twitchy]

Jesus I didn't realise they lost 57-0. That is painful.

[Puja]

I don't think it's actually a precipitous decline from the South Africans - a 5 match winning run against very average France and Argentina (of which 4 games were at home) appears to have made a lot of people forget that this is the same South African side that got clumped by 50 points and 40 points to New Zealand last year and lost all three of their Autumn Internationals, including one to Italy. They haven't become a bad team overnight; nothing has changed since last year and thus nothing has changed.

Puja

[Oakboy]

SA are suffering more from political correctness/interference than actual playing decline. A change of management could turn their performances around quite quickly.

France could change overnight too.

Australia have never had decent crowds. They don't even have the right shaped grounds.

I think the game itself is good enough to thrive. One good RWC could transform fortunes.

[kk67]

This AB's are pretty good. Only Ireland are giving them problems. Ireland playing technical rugby.
It can be done.

[twitchy]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/ ... d-cup-2023


France promises to prevent ‘death of rugby’ if awarded 2023 World Cup

[fivepointer]

Thats pretty stark and does go hand in hand with the Kitson piece from the Guardian i put up yesterday. I'm not sure awarding France the WC is going to solve all the issues but there is no doubt that the game faces considerable challenges over the next decade.
For perhaps the first time i'm not optimistic about the international game, and do have concerns about the long term viability of pro club rugby.

[Mellsblue]

SA are suffering more from political correctness/interference than actual playing decline. A change of management could turn their performances around quite quickly.

France could change overnight too.

Australia have never had decent crowds. They don't even have the right shaped grounds.

I think the game itself is good enough to thrive. One good RWC could transform fortunes.

If you look at the quality of players in Europe and Japan it's not just quotas.

[Banquo]

if you start to add in increasing nervousness at schools here about rugby and injuries you have a worrying situation

[Mellsblue]

The Times are running similar ideas. Slot has written on both the issues in the international arena, with the weakening of SH nation's due to the money in France and England, and, ironically, the money issues in the English club game.
Somebody somewhere is heavily briefing the papers.

[Mellsblue]

if you start to add in increasing nervousness at schools here about rugby and injuries you have a worrying situation

Is this actually happening or is it just a few 'experts' whipping up a storm? Genuine question, I've no idea.

[Puja]

SA are suffering more from political correctness/interference than actual playing decline. A change of management could turn their performances around quite quickly.

France could change overnight too.

Australia have never had decent crowds. They don't even have the right shaped grounds.

I think the game itself is good enough to thrive. One good RWC could transform fortunes.

Argentina could be a different team if they allowed selection from abroad - it's just not feasible to try and have all of their players playing for one Super Rugby team. If you look at the players missing, Imhoff, Isa, and Fernandez would definitely be starting and there's a dozen more that would be in and around the conversation.

Puja

[Banquo]

if you start to add in increasing nervousness at schools here about rugby and injuries you have a worrying situation

Is this actually happening or is it just a few 'experts' whipping up a storm? Genuine question, I've no idea.

...its happening. Litigation is the big worry; and the schools themselves is only one element.....refs too.

[Peat]

SA are suffering more from political correctness/interference than actual playing decline. A change of management could turn their performances around quite quickly.

France could change overnight too.

Australia have never had decent crowds. They don't even have the right shaped grounds.

I think the game itself is good enough to thrive. One good RWC could transform fortunes.

If you look at the quality of players in Europe and Japan it's not just quotas.

The quotas go all the way down though, don't they? It could be affecting competition and therefore development right at the bottom.

But in any case, yes, remove the quotas and you still have a team that's not good enough to take on the All Blacks and a country that's not rich enough to keep its best in house.

France won't change overnight either. They are turning into the English football of rugby - a considerable deficit in player development topped off with a cut throat, import heavy league that forces kids to concentrate on being Top 14 ready rather than being the best player they can be. You can't change that overnight.

I believe the game is strong enough to overcome a crash in the pro game, but there's a genuine risk that a crash is coming and its not guaranteed the game does come out in decent shape.

[Timbo]

The World Cup makes loads of money. Lions tours make loads of money. The European club game makes loads of money. Rugby is more entertaining and accessible from a spectator point of view than ever.

So that's a pretty strong position to be starting from. What's needed is strong leadership and administration to channel all those things into something cogent and relatively streamlined.

[Stom]

I wonder what agenda is being pushed and by who? As this is all rather sudden and co-ordinated. As if someone has something to sell. Or maybe a group of people.

[Digby]

Simply to avoid another thread I'll mention here that as per The Times today England are mooting a change to the 6N schedule. Basically England and France will play the tournament over a reduced timeframe and only have a 1 week break during the 6N, which means the first round of the tournament would only see games involving Italy, Scotland, Ireland and Wales, and that during one of the rest weekends for those four we'd see the England Vs France fixture.

It's maybe an idea to get the ball rolling, it'll make the clubs happy perhaps. But it will see England and France going in cold with the other teams already a game up, it'll give the players less rest and there's already talk of strikes, and I don't know the others would trust that England and France wouldn't make that change decide it isn't working and then demand the others move to play in a shortened format anyway.

[Puja]

I wonder what agenda is being pushed and by who? As this is all rather sudden and co-ordinated. As if someone has something to sell. Or maybe a group of people.

And the France 2023 bid has now come out with the ridiculous statement that without them getting the World Cup, the game will be dead within 10 years. There's a suspect for you.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

I've just read how France are going to stop world rugby dying. I suppose it's a different way of saying "here is a bribe".

[Peat]

I wonder what agenda is being pushed and by who? As this is all rather sudden and co-ordinated. As if someone has something to sell. Or maybe a group of people.

Fair question but its not like the issues being covered here are new.

Of course, the real answer is to rein in the spending and cut games for a better spectacle, not hand France the World Cup and pray for the money tree to grow...


edit: Can we have the two threads merged? Seems to make sense.

[Puja]

edit: Can we have the two threads merged? Seems to make sense.

Can do - any objections from anyone?

Puja

[Mellsblue]

edit: Can we have the two threads merged? Seems to make sense.

Can do - any objections from anyone?

Puja

Democracy but only asMugabe would know it. You've changed.

[Puja]

edit: Can we have the two threads merged? Seems to make sense.

Can do - any objections from anyone?

Puja

Democracy but only asMugabe would know it. You've changed.

No, I've always been this much of a tw*t. I've just got power now

Puja

[Puja]

So, modhat off again, I think this is just general purpose doom-mongering. In 1999, the game was going to die because NZ were failing and would surely be on a downward spiral fom there. It was due to die in 2003 because South Africa was a basket-case and minnows were getting centuries put on them by the established teams. In 2007, the game was due to die because everyone just kicked the ball. In 2015, it was going to die because the Home Nations had failed and the 4N had the game sewn up forever.

To spoil the ending, the game is unlikely to die. It will adapt and it will prosper in different directions. Change will happen, people will complain, doom will be predicted. La plus ça change and all that.

Puja

[Banquo]

So, modhat off again, I think this is just general purpose doom-mongering. In 1999, the game was going to die because NZ were failing and would surely be on a downward spiral fom there. It was due to die in 2003 because South Africa was a basket-case and minnows were getting centuries put on them by the established teams. In 2007, the game was due to die because everyone just kicked the ball. In 2015, it was going to die because the Home Nations had failed and the 4N had the game sewn up forever.

To spoil the ending, the game is unlikely to die. It will adapt and it will prosper in different directions. Change will happen, people will complain, doom will be predicted. La plus ça change and all that.

Puja

I genuinely think the most likely doom bringer is injuries followed by litigation and rugby slowly eradicated through fear at schoolboy level. Even that is probably a long way off, if ever, in truth.