Ridiculously early ABs calls

[cashead]

The NZ portion of the Super Rugby opening round is done. Time to make ridiculously early calls on who will be capped for the All Blacks by the end of the year.


Hookers:
James Parsons will add to his solitary test cap, and Liam Coltman will be an All Black by the end of the year.

Props:
Pauliasi Manu will finally be capped. It's not like he's eligible for anyone else. I think he may also be the only person without a test cap to have a World Cup winner's medal. With Nepo Laulala basically done for the year, Josh Hohneck will get an All Blacks call-up.

Loose Forwards:
Elliot Dixon and Blake Gibson will be All Blacks by the end of the year.

Halfback:
Bryn Hall will be an All Black.

Midfield:
Charlie Ngatai will be 1/2 of the All Blacks midfield, and it will simply be a matter of who will be partnered with him - either Malakai Fekitoa or SBW. Richard Buckman will be there in November.

Wingers:
Cory Jane will make a shock return to the All Blacks.

Fullbacks:
Damien McKenzie will be an All Black, as the second fullback option. He will start a test at some point, probably with Ben Smith on the wing.

[Len]

A lot of those players scream average to me. Bryn Hall especially. How you think he'll get past Smith, Perenara and Kerr-Barlow I'll never know. Parsons is old no? Buckman is a good player at super level but he doesn't look a test player to me. Charlie Ngatai is in the same boat.

[cashead]

A lot of those players scream average to me. Bryn Hall especially. How you think he'll get past Smith, Perenara and Kerr-Barlow I'll never know. Parsons is old no? Buckman is a good player at super level but he doesn't look a test player to me. Charlie Ngatai is in the same boat.

Keep in mind that "doesn't look like a test player" is the exact criticism that was directed at Ben Smith back in 2009. It was a bullshit non-argument then, and it's a bullshit non-argument now.

Perenara was poor at the world cup, and has yet to prove himself at the test stage. Just because he was the 3rd string halfback last year doesn't mean his spot is set in stone. Hall showed a hell of a lot fucking more than Perenara has in the last 30 hours, that's for sure.

Ngatai had a great 2015 for the Chiefs and was a key cog in just about everything that went right for them last year, and had a huge part in securing the Chiefs' win tonight. Damien McKenzie and Aaron Cruden may get the plaudits, but it would be hugely disingenuous to suggest Ngatai had nothing to do with it.

Buckman also had a huge hand in the Highlanders winning the comp last year, he can cover all back 3 positions and the midfield. He's a solid defender, tends to get over the gainline, his decision-making tends to be sound, and gets the ball to his supporters in contact more often than not. What's the problem?

And Parsons is in his late 20s, but so what? Or are you suggesting that there is a cut-off date for all test selections now? Does it operate under Logan's Run rules?

[Len]

A lot of those players scream average to me. Bryn Hall especially. How you think he'll get past Smith, Perenara and Kerr-Barlow I'll never know. Parsons is old no? Buckman is a good player at super level but he doesn't look a test player to me. Charlie Ngatai is in the same boat.

Keep in mind that "doesn't look like a test player" is the exact criticism that was directed at Ben Smith back in 2009. It was a bullshit non-argument then, and it's a bullshit non-argument now.

Perenara was poor at the world cup, and has yet to prove himself at the test stage. Just because he was the 3rd string halfback last year doesn't mean his spot is set in stone.

Ngatai had a great 2015 for the Chiefs and was a key cog in just about everything that went right for them last year, and had a huge part in securing the Chiefs' win tonight. Damien McKenzie and Aaron Cruden may get the plaudits, but it would be hugely disingenuous to suggest Ngatai had nothing to do with it.

Buckman also had a huge hand in the Highlanders winning the comp last year, he can cover all back 3 positions and the midfield. He's a solid defender, tends to get over the gainline, his decision-making tends to be sound, and gets the ball to his supporters in contact more often than not. What's the problem?

And Parsons is in his late 20s, but so what? Or are you suggesting that there is a cut-off date for all test selections now? Does it operate under Logan's Run rules?

Buckman or Crotty? Bryn Hall is below average IMO, never impressed me. Brad Shields above Dixon and you're missing Savea junior unless hes with the 7s at the moment. I'd rather we looked at a younger hooker for development reasons than Parsons.

And people give Cantabrians shit about provincial bias. How many titles have harbour won?

Jurys still out on Damien McKenzie too. Its early days yet.

Don't know who said Smith doesn't look a test player, wasn't me though. When All Blacks are selected for the first time its usually not for how they are playing at present but how much potential they have. Dixon is at his ceiling IMO, as is Buckman and Ngatai.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Ben Smith doesn't look like a Test player" said no one ever.

[cashead]

Ben Smith doesn't look like a Test player" said no one ever.

Oh you'll be surprised. It was the exact statement made about him by several in the SHMB two incarnations of this board ago, and it was also directed at Anthony Boric and Adam Thomson back when they were within the selection frame in 2008~2009. I could also throw in comments like how Dane Coles was a "selection mistake" as well.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Ben Smith doesn't look like a Test player" said no one ever.

Oh you'll be surprised. It was the exact statement made about him by several in the SHMB two incarnations of this board ago, and it was also directed at Anthony Boric and Adam Thomson back when they were within the selection frame in 2008~2009. I could also throw in comments like how Dane Coles was a "selection mistake" as well.

I would be surprised because I'm not exactly in infrequent visitor to the SHMB and whilst I certainly remember people preferring Dagg at various stages i don't recall a single person suggesting that Smith looked like he would never be capable of playing Test rugby.

I can completely understand it being directed at Boric, I don't recall it being directed at Thomson and yes it was directed at Coles. For the avoidanc o doubt I'm not suggesting that no one has used the phrase ever.

[cashead]

Buckman or Crotty? Bryn Hall is below average IMO, never impressed me.

I guess you missed the Blues v. Highlanders game, then.

Brad Shields above Dixon and you're missing

Shields had a strong first season in Super Rugby, and hasn't done much since. Blade Thomson had a better season than him last year as well.

Savea junior unless hes with the 7s at the moment.

Mmmhmmm.

I'd rather we looked at a younger hooker for development reasons than Parsons.

You mean like Codie Taylor? Besides, Parsons may have a few more years on him than other options like Harris, but A) he wouldn't have the wear that a front-rower in his late 20s would due to the lack of mileage on him and B) his maturity and captaincy experience makes him a great middle-management selection, something that is a highly underrated commodity around here.

And people give Cantabrians shit about provincial bias. How many titles have harbour won?

By that logic, no Hurricanes players should ever be selected. How many titles have they won?

Jurys still out on Damien McKenzie too. Its early days yet.

So, you want a young player to be selected for development elsewhere, but when McKenzie shows tremendous promise and potential, it's "oh no, jury's still out! It's early days yet!"

Don't know who said Smith doesn't look a test player, wasn't me though. When All Blacks are selected for the first time its usually not for how they are playing at present but how much potential they have. Dixon is at his ceiling IMO, as is Buckman and Ngatai.

Going to have to call bullshit on the latter part re: Buckman and Ngatai - they both play in the midfield where it's not unusual for players to hit their peak in the latter stages of their careers. Nonu and Smith were playing better than they ever had in the last few years, for example. Buckman's a great utility option, gets over the gainline, is a strong defender, makes the right call and has great timing on attack. What's the problem?

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Whilst we're at it, no one has said that Ngatai had nothing to do with the Chiefs victory but surely the benchmark for being an AB is higher than mere presence? Going purely on the weekends games Moala was at least as good and Sa'u looks interesting. Looking more widely I'd be surprised if it weren't SBW and Fekitoa who were in prime position assuming that SBW comes back with the right conditioning. If Rene Ranger gets a haircut he could also be a contender.

[cashead]

Whilst we're at it, no one has said that Ngatai had nothing to do with the Chiefs victory but surely the benchmark for being an AB is higher than mere presence? Going purely on the weekends games Moala was at least as good and Sa'u looks interesting. Looking more widely I'd be surprised if it weren't SBW and Fekitoa who were in prime position assuming that SBW comes back with the right conditioning. If Rene Ranger gets a haircut he could also be a contender.

Ngatai had a quiet first half where play didn't go his way, but he was absolutely huge in the second half, frequently getting the Chiefs attacking momentum and being a rock in their midfield defence, making crucial tackles. Basically, he's the logical replacement for Conrad Smith, who would probably be the single biggest loss out of the All Blacks departures from last year.

Also, there is no way for Male Sa'u to ever play for the All Blacks, let alone be eligible. He's been capped 26 times by Japan since 2013, including that game against the Springboks.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Whilst we're at it, no one has said that Ngatai had nothing to do with the Chiefs victory but surely the benchmark for being an AB is higher than mere presence? Going purely on the weekends games Moala was at least as good and Sa'u looks interesting. Looking more widely I'd be surprised if it weren't SBW and Fekitoa who were in prime position assuming that SBW comes back with the right conditioning. If Rene Ranger gets a haircut he could also be a contender.

Ngatai had a quiet first half where play didn't go his way, but he was absolutely huge in the second half, frequently getting the Chiefs attacking momentum and being a rock in their midfield defence, making crucial tackles. Basically, he's the logical replacement for Conrad Smith, who would probably be the single biggest loss out of the All Blacks departures from last year.

Also, there is no way for Male Sa'u to ever play for the All Blacks, let alone be eligible. He's been capped 26 times by Japan since 2013, including that game against the Springboks.

Ngatai is definitely an option. I thought he had a very good season last year. I think it's the wrong approach to look for a natural replacement to Smith. I think yo want to pick the best team you can which to me is likely to be SBW and Fekitoa who I admire greatly.

I hadn't realised Sa'u was japanese. Was a new name to me so assumed he''d just come through the ranks.

[J Dory]

. If Rene Ranger gets a haircut he could also be a contender.

I'm hoping this is his year, when he came on he showed glimpses of what he's capable of. Agree about the haircut, currently looks like he could have animals living in that mane.

[Spy]

Could have been me on the Ben Smith call. I always thought he was an excellent footballer, but in his early years doubted he had the attacking X factor to be the best fullback in NZ. I was completely wrong in that, although in fairness to myself, I think Smith just kept getting better and better.

[Banquo]

How about Lowe from the Chiefs? Looks sparky. Agreed on Mackenzie looks very special to me.

[cashead]

How about Lowe from the Chiefs? Looks sparky. Agreed on Mackenzie looks very special to me.

Lowe has been lost a bit in the shuffle simply due to the depth in the position. It's not really his fault though, but with Naholo out for the long-term, his prospects are looking rather good.

[Lizard]

Statistically, we should try to avoid selecting any of:

Owen Franks
Corey Jane
Kieran Read
Jerome Kaino
Liam Messam

If we can leave them out, then no-one in the entire All Blacks playing squad will have any experience of losing a home test.

Personally, however, I would be prepared to for us to carry the 5 losing home caps that would come with Kieran (2), Kaino (2) and Franks (1).

[cashead]

Liam Messam won't be eligible for the ABs until 2017, due to Japanese club commitments.

Taking stock in the positions, looking at who's available or eligible, and would probably be in contention:

Loosehead
Wyatt Crockett
Joe Moody
Ofa Tu'ungafasi

Hooker
Dane Coles
Codie Taylor
Hika Elliot
James Parsons
Nathan Harris
Liam Coltman
Rhys Marshall
Ben Funnell

Tighthead
Owen Franks
Charlie Faumuina
Josh Hohneck
Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen

Locks
Brodie Retallick
Sam Whitelock
Luke Romano
Patrick Tuipulotu
Dominic Bird
Blade Thomson
Joe Wheeler
Jimmy Tupou

Blindside
Jerome Kaino
Steven Luatua
Jordan Taufua
Elliot Dixon
Brad Shields

Openside
Sam Cane
Matt Todd
Ardie Savea
Blake Gibson

Number Eight
Kieran Read
Luke Whitelock
Akira Ioane
Liam Squire

Halfback
Aaron Smith
Tawera Kerr-Barlow
TJ Perenara
Brad Weber
Gus Pulu
Andrew Ellis
Bryn Hall
Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi

First Five
Beauden Barrett
Lima Sopoaga
Aaron Cruden
Stephen Donald
Richie Mo'unga
Ihaia West

Second Five
Charlie Ngatai
Sonny Bill Williams
Ryan Crotty
George Moala

Centre
Malakai Fekitoa
Rene Ranger
Seta Tamanivalu
Rieko Ioane

Wingers
Julian Savea
Waisake Naholo
James Lowe
Tevita Li
Patrick Osborne
Cory Jane

Fullbacks
Ben Smith
Israel Dagg
Damien McKenzie
Jason Woodward
James Marshall

Loosehead looks rather light at the moment, but Hohneck can cover there. In all likelihood, should he be called up, he will probably do the Ben Franks role of covering either side. Tu'ungafasi is good with ball in hand and has stacks of potential, but his technique is still suspect.
Number 8 also looks a bit thin behind Read, but Blade Thomson, Brad Shields and Elliot Dixon can cover there as well. We're actually not lacking in talented 6/8 cover, but the loss of Vito and Messam reduces the experience on hand.

In the backs, 13 looks a it thin, but Ngatai can cover there no problem.

With Nehe Milner-Skudder's likely season-ending injury, it leaves one of the fullback/winger spots wide open, and it's a good chance for Jason Woodward to stake his claim. Fullback is actually a position we're pretty good with, and Damien McKenzie could conceivably end up with the Colin Slade role of being able to play across the backline as a super utility.

Unavailable
Pauliasi Manu (ruptured Achilles' tendon, out for the year)
Nepo Laulala (busted knee ligaments, out for the year)
James Broadhurst (concussion, will be back when he's back, maybe)
Victor Vito (signed with La Rochelle)
Nehe Milner-Skudder (dislocated shoulder, probably gone until the EOYT, or latter stages of the Rugby Champs at the earliest)

[Lizard]

Tu'ungafasi looks a bit all horn and no balls to me - the sort of player who would be given Demi God status at the Ospreys or something but can't quite step up to All Black level. I hope he proves me wrong.

[Len]

Jason Woodward!

I wouldn't mind if a NH team poached him TBH.

[cashead]

Tu'ungafasi looks a bit all horn and no balls to me - the sort of player who would be given Demi God status at the Ospreys or something but can't quite step up to All Black level. I hope he proves me wrong.

Tu'ungafasi is basically the Auckland stereotype, of the huge Pacific Island kid who bulldozes everyone at the schoolboy level, and when he goes pro, gets found out because everyone else had been working on their technique to work around their comparative lack of size, which results in him falling behind.


So, if I had to pick a 31-man squad out of that:

Coles, Taylor, Harris or Parsons
Crockett, Moody, Franks, Faumuina, Hohneck
Retallick, Whitelock, Romano
Thomson
Kaino, Luatua, Cane, Todd, Read (Akira Ioane, if Kaino's not fit)

Smith, TKB (if he's had enough game time), Hall or Weber
Barrett, Cruden, Sopoaga
Ngatai, SBW (if he's available) or Crotty
Fekitoa, Tamanivalu or Ioane
Savea, Li
B Smith, McKenzie

[Maltarugby]

Tu'ungafasi looks a bit all horn and no balls to me - the sort of player who would be given Demi God status at the Ospreys or something but can't quite step up to All Black level. I hope he proves me wrong.

Tu'ungafasi is basically the Auckland stereotype, of the huge Pacific Island kid who bulldozes everyone at the schoolboy level, and when he goes pro, gets found out because everyone else had been working on their technique to work around their comparative lack of size, which results in him falling behind.


So, if I had to pick a 31-man squad out of that:

Coles, Taylor, Harris or Parsons
Crockett, Moody, Franks, Faumuina, Hohneck
Retallick, Whitelock, Romano
Thomson
Kaino, Luatua, Cane, Todd, Read (Akira Ioane, if Kaino's not fit)

Smith, TKB (if he's had enough game time), Hall or Weber
Barrett, Cruden, Sopoaga
Ngatai, SBW (if he's available) or Crotty
Fekitoa, Tamanivalu or Ioane
Savea, Li
B Smith, McKenzie

Naholo, Lowe and Osbourne are ahead of Li for me. Also Ardie Savea should be in the mix if he's not playing 7s.

[cashead]

Tu'ungafasi looks a bit all horn and no balls to me - the sort of player who would be given Demi God status at the Ospreys or something but can't quite step up to All Black level. I hope he proves me wrong.

Tu'ungafasi is basically the Auckland stereotype, of the huge Pacific Island kid who bulldozes everyone at the schoolboy level, and when he goes pro, gets found out because everyone else had been working on their technique to work around their comparative lack of size, which results in him falling behind.


So, if I had to pick a 31-man squad out of that:

Coles, Taylor, Harris or Parsons
Crockett, Moody, Franks, Faumuina, Hohneck
Retallick, Whitelock, Romano
Thomson
Kaino, Luatua, Cane, Todd, Read (Akira Ioane, if Kaino's not fit)

Smith, TKB (if he's had enough game time), Hall or Weber
Barrett, Cruden, Sopoaga
Ngatai, SBW (if he's available) or Crotty
Fekitoa, Tamanivalu or Ioane
Savea, Li
B Smith, McKenzie

Naholo, Lowe and Osbourne are ahead of Li for me. Also Ardie Savea should be in the mix if he's not playing 7s.

Naholo is out with an injury, and Osborne is pushing 30. Lowe would be in his mid-20s, but Li would likely have more long-term mileage due to his age.

Also, Savea is likely to be on 7s duty.

[Eugene Wrayburn]

Why on earth would you be worrying about further than the next RWC, cas? Are you seriously suggesting that Li should be preferred to Lowe because Lowe might not quite make it to 2023?

[zer0]

Much like Tu'ungafasi, Li has thus far proved to be nothing but a flat track bully. If you want a skillful winger go for Lowe. If you want a strike winger (or want to give that fat bus driver Savea a kick in the pants) go for Osborne.

[morepork]

Savea is going all KFC again?