RugbyRebels

If the “incumbent” team is those with the most caps last year in their position (taking bench places as separate positions) then this is the current All Blacks team:

1. Hames (8)
2. Taylor (7)*
3. Laulala ( 9)
4. Retallick (8)**
5. S. Whitelock (12)**
6. Squire (6)
7. Cane (13)
8. Read (12)
9. A. Smith (13)
10. B. Barrett (13)
11. Ioane (11)
12. Williams (13)
13. Crotty (9)
14. Naholo (6)
15. McKenzie (10)

16. Coles (7)*
17. Crockett (13)
18. Tu’ungafasi (10)
19. S. Barrett (9)
20. A. Savea (8)
21. Perenara (12)
22. Sopoaga (9)
23. Lienert-Brown (8)


How is this likely to change this year? I see 2018 as a year of consolidation before RWC2019, with only probably 18 tests before then.*** Opportunities for uncapped players will be limited although with almost the entire Super Rugby campaign to go, chickens ought not be counted. Bolters seem most likely at hooker (Aumua, Riccitelli?), back-up 1st 5/8 (Mo'unga) and in the centres , especially if SBW goes AWOL one way or another.

Hookers
With Coles still out injured (as usual) the incumbents are Taylor to start with Harris on the bench. It does seem only a matter of time before the dynamic Asafo Aumua gets a shot though (perhaps more likely in November than the Championship or home tests).

Looseheads
To the relief of referee’s aching penalty arms, Crockett has retired so presumably Moody is back in the frame assuming he’s back from injury by June. If so there should be little argument that he takes the 1 jumper and Hames takes 17.

Tightheads
Owen Franks should be back from injury as well and I would not want to be the one to explain to him that he is no longer the incumbent. Although he’s been around for a while he’s only just hitting his prime as a prop at 30 years old. I would prefer Laulala on the bench, but Hansen may see Tu’ungafasi as a specialist in that role, having backed up Nepo in all 9 of his tests without a single rotation into the starting XV.

Locks
The best pairing in the world is not going to change, barring injury, anytime soon. At 29, Whitelock will fancy another RWC. Brodie (26) could conceivably aim for 2023. We might see some rotation on the bench, to test depth and potential new players but Barrett is a class act.

Loosies
Read (injuries permitting) and Cane are no-brainers. Squire is looking more and more like a permanent fixture with Kaino signing off, although there is competition. Ardie is likely to have to keep trying to prove himself from the bench, under fire from Fifita. It seems a bit weird not having a Collins/So’oialo/Kaino-type immovable Polynesian object in the starting back 3.

Halfback
Despite TJ’s best efforts, only a maniac would not be handing the 9 jersey to Smith before even sharpening their pencil to write a first draft XV.

1st 5/8
Ditto Barrett with even more daylight between him and the next best now that Sopoaga has signed for Wasps (and Cruden went to France). There’s a real opportunity for McKenzie to play in his preferred position for the All Blacks now (especially if Ben Smith stays fit) although Richia Mo’unga will have something to say about that.

2nd 5/8 & Centre
After some real musical chairs in 2016, 2017 was relatively settled with a favoured three emerging. Sonny Bill was nailed on at 12, but rumours of another code-hop could undo that (or perhaps strengthen it?). Crotty, when fit, seems to be the elderly, unflashy glue that holds the backline together so he won’t be lightly discarded. ALB has the goods but is not yet fully proven and Ngani Laumape will want another go, I’m sure.

Wings
On the wing, only Ioane seems a certainty. Naholo has done little wrong but I’m sure Julian Savea would be in France by now if he wasn’t determined to get back in Black. Izzy Dagg could become (I think) the All Black’s oldest ever winger (if he isn’t already) but surely his time is done? If NMS has found some sufficiently strong sticky-tape he remains a contender. And of course wing remains a position where young bolters can easily be given a shot.

Fullbacks
At fullback, Ben Smith remains the default choice. If Barret and/or McKenzie are in the 23 then back-up isn’t an issue.

*Tie broken by total caps. Taylor played in all 14 tests, Coles only played in the 7 he started. Harris also sat on the bench 7 times.
**I’ve counted 4 & 5 as the same position. When not playing together both Whitelock and Retallick occasionally wore the other number.
*** 3 v France, July’18, 7 in TRC2018 + Bled III, 4 in Nov’18 tour, 1 PI warmup July’19, 3 in reduced TRC’19

I've seen the "Tu’ungafasi is a specialist reserve" pop up a few times here and there. But I have absolutely no idea what the rationale for a specialist reserve prop is these days. Especially one as average as Tu’ungafasi. Laulala has to be the reserve tighthead as far as I'm concerned.

I don't think McKenzie will cut it as a five eighth, and I think Mo’unga will surpass him by the end of this year. Indeed he may even be surpassed for the 3rd choice spot by someone like Perofeta or Gatland by 2019. He could make it as a fullback, tho.

As for the midfield, I think that the RWC combo will be Crotty and one of Leinert-Brown or Goodhue. I can also see Laumape easily going the Nonu or Moala route equally well.

Given he can evidently kick the ball, I hope Duffie gets a few runs at fullback for the Blues. Would really help further his test credentials.

At loosehead, it'll definitely be Moody, then Hames with probably Tim Perry as the 3rd choice. We're also seeing interesting movement in the fringes, with Pauliasi Manu probably aiming for an injury-free season, and Dan Lienert-Brown seeking to join his brother in the All Blacks.

I'm not sure Aumua will be ready at hooker. He's already shown there may be fitness concerns with him, so he'll need to work on that. Other than that, there are a few promising young guys coming though, like Liam Polwart, who was nabbed by the Chiefs after only just a handful of games for the Steamers, Leni Apisai, as well as potentially interesting options like Matt Moulds, a front-rower with high-level Sevens experience, and Ricky Riccitelli, who did not put a foot wrong as Coles' replacement at the Canes last year.

Tighthead is fairly straight forward with Franks and Laulala as the incumbents. Tu'ungafasi will likely be seen as the 3rd choice here, and Prop 5 in the 31-man squad for next year. After him, we're looking at probably Jeff Toomaga-Allen and then Atu Moli as possibles.

The top 3 locks are more-or-less nailed in (Retallick, Whitelock, Romano). Barrett has the head start over plenty of other guys, but Tuipulotu will be eager to regain his test jersey, and seeing as how he was included in the extended squad for the EOYT, it's likely Dom Bird is still in Hansen's mind. It will be interesting to see if they also finally pull the trigger on blooding Tom Franklin at the test level, as a lot of these guys feel more like replacements for Retallick, while Franklin is closer to Whitelock in his style.

Blindside looks a bit thin, with just two obvious candidates in Squires and Fifita. I really like Dixon, but he never really was able to make that transition to the test level, and feels a bit like a forgotten man, while Luke Whitelock is really making a case for himself as a 6/8 option. Ethan Blackadder was quite impressive for the Makos, but if he's got RWC ambitions, 2023 will be the likelier one for him.

Openside on the other hand looks exceedingly healthy, with Cane being the front-runner and Savea and Todd being the next guys. We're also seeing some stiff competition emerge with Dillon Hunt coming in out of nowhere to make the ABs last year, and the likes of Kara Pryor and Blake Gibson making a strong case for inclusion as well.

No. 8 will be Read, obviously, but his workload will have to be managed intelligently. Whitelock stepped up last year, and Akira Ioane is also a potential long-term player as the strong ball-carrier. I like Whitelock's workrate, but Ioane's upped his in the last couple of years.

Halfback has no definite top 3 at the moment, with Smith and Perenara streets ahead of others. Weber and Pulu are potentials, but both Bryn Hall and Mitch Drummond have made strong cases for consideration as well.

Five-Eighths - Don't rate McKenzie as a 10, never have and unless things change dramatically, probably never will. Beaudy is the clear incumbent, and I suspect Mo'unga is the next guy now that Sopoaga's headed to England. Honestly, I think both Mo'unga and Mini-Gats will be the guys seen as the next two 10s behind him.

Midfield - Sonny Bill, Crotty, ALB. I'm not really convinced with Laumape at the test level (although I'm happy to take into account that he's still fairly new to rugby union), and the coaches are clearly interested in my boy Buckman, who was at the training camp last year. It's a real shame about my other midfield boy Charlie Ngatai though, who got injured at the worst time. Definitely a case of "what could've been." Jack Goodhue is another name to keep an eye out for. Keep an eye out for Caleb Clarke here, by the way.

Wings - Ioane is the incumbent power winger, and I'd say Savea and Naholo are fighting for the same spot. Naholo occasionally has some clangers (although not to the degree as before), while a motivated and fit Savea is easily one of the best wingers in the game. The basically-a-fullback-but-on-the-wing slot is somewhat more interesting. Dagg was excellent last year, and assuming he's in form, I don't see why he shouldn't be considered as an option. As for NMS, as much as I like the guy, it's clear that he's going to start to struggle due to injuries and I'm not sure if his body is built for test rugby. If he's injured again, I can see his spot going to Matt Duffie, and it'll be quite difficult for him to regain it. Another one that could be interesting is Brayden Ennor, although I can see him ending up like Scott Hamilton or Johnny McNicol - technically fine wingers, who may get a cap or two, but consistently overshadowed by others (back in the day, I felt like I was the only person that liked Scott Hamilton - he may have looked awkward, and consistently the guy who benefited by being on the wing of a champion side - how's that his fault, exactly? - but his timing was impeccable, his defence was solid and he was reliable under the high ball. He's more-or-less the NZ Rugby equivalent of Chad Bradford, a relief pitcher that was easily one of the most reliable and talented of his generation, who was consistently overlooked because "he threw funny" until Billy Beane picked him up for his Island of Misfit Toys Oakland A's team).

Fullback - Ben Smith is the obvious incumbent, with McKenzie and Jordie Barrett as the next guys, not necessarily in that order.

Good Fred. Great up to date snap shot for the likes of me wot don't live locally.

morepork wrote:Good Fred. Great up to date snap shot for the likes of me wot don't live locally.

Wot he said.

Anyone see Jordie Barrett potentially moving to 12?

zer0 wrote:I've seen the "Tu’ungafasi is a specialist reserve" pop up a few times here and there. But I have absolutely no idea what the rationale for a specialist reserve prop is these days. Especially one as average as Tu’ungafasi.

"Average" based on what? His value is based not on his scrummaging (which has improved considerably), but what he brings elsewhere. That's why he's selected. How many rucks does he hit? Does he police the fringes? What's his effectiveness? How many defenders break through his tackles? How many of them are dominant? How many defenders does it take, on average, to stop him? What's his average gain when doing pick-and-goes? What does he do in the lineout? Does he lift? Does he screen? What about mauls? Does he make a difference when he's there, adding a push? That sort of stuff.

It was like when people were appalled at Reuben Thorne being selected, or Kevin O'Neill getting a call-up, etc. When you start to break down the statistics and run the numbers, you see why these guys are getting selected. It's pretty much sabermetrics 101.

I think a lot of us still have a tendency to be fooled by perception and bias, concious or otherwise (think back to a few years ago when people were jizzing themselves over the young pretender Michael Hooper "outplaying" McCaw in a Bledisloe Cup test where the Wallabies got belted by the All Blacks anyway, only for the stats to come through, showing that McCaw was roughly 300% more effective than Hooper - people wanted to believe that the seasoned veteran was on his last legs in a position with a traditionally higher attrition rate, and were fooled by Hooper's tendency to run around like a headless chicken, not actually doing much). So, when you're wondering why a player is selected, and what their role is, look at the numbers. They don't lie.

I hope that answers your question.

J Dory wrote:Anyone see Jordie Barrett potentially moving to 12?

His selection is based on being a utility, so it could happen. I'm not sure it's relevant anyway, since the 15 often plays as second receiver in the NZ system.

And yeah, I have been thinking a lot about sabermetrics* and sports analytics recently, and it's basically why it took so long for the selectors to pull the trigger on Akira Ioane - until recently, he was the new Lauaki. Do a run or two early in the game, and maybe halfway through, stand out a lot, and then disappear into the ether when on defence. In this day and age, a player like Sione Lauaki will NEVER get selected, unless they get their shit together and start upping their workrate. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Wayne Smith had read Moneyball at some point between 2005 and 2008.

It's also why "doesn't look like an All Black" or "just not test class" is a bullshit excuse that needs to fuck off the nearest cliff, because the intangibles are just that - intangible, unquantifiable and pointless, much like "X-factor" that some players supposedly have because even that shit can be quantified into numbers. I'd rather see a player that grinds away and delivers tangible numbers and stats relevant to their core roles be called up because those have value and those help build a platform - because those numbers are real and that sort of thing is what victories are built off of.


*It's where the concept of moneyball comes from, for those who aren't familiar with the term (and I'm sure you've probably heard of that one). I won't call it moneyball here, since that's the term applied when a team without much money puts together a strong team of contenders built on a platform of misfits from all over on a budget. With the NZRU, money's not really a problem, obviously.

I'd imagine sabremetrics is much less applicable to a more complex/messier sport like rugby than it is to the likes of baseball, cricket or even the NFL. Pretty sure Smith has indeed read Moneyball. There was an article about it prior to 2011 (or maybe 2015) talking about the stats guy they hired to rework their metrics. One of the major ones I recall was 'time to get off the ground', or some-such. The English would know the proper name for it, as Steady Eddie went on about it a hell of a lot in his first year or two. Maybe he still does.

Just because something cannot be quantified does not make it pointless. How do you quantify "leadership"? "Culture"? If all you cared about was quantified metrics -- which may or may not be useful in the first instance -- then you might as well take all your player profiles, throw them through some machine learning, and select whatever comes out the end. Would probably make for an unusual team, I'd wager.

Actually you can quantify "leadership" and "culture" and come up with tangible statistics to back it up. And of course the statistics are only part of it, but you can actually see a poor culture affect results on the field.

Look at the Wallabies under Deans and McKenzie, where when you put a team where the senior players that can model their behaviour for their younger team mates were sidelined (like Nathan Sharpe) and a toxic mix of bad personalities (O'Connor, Cooper and Beale, to varying degrees - all three of whom are still paying for it today) created what was clearly an awful environment which came to a head ultimately with McKenzie's resignation, O'Connor being run out of Aussie rugby shortly after, Cooper ending up now as a persona non grata who can't even hold down a spot in the fucking Reds, let alone the Wallabies, and Beale, who still has to assure the public that he'll be on his best behaviour because of his rap sheet which is as long as your arm.

As for "leadership," aside from looking at who would fit the role, you can easily measure a player's temperament, how they're perceived by their peers (I think this was how the Irish chose Rory Best as their captain under Schmidt - the guy that the team almost unanimously respected), how do they interact with the official, are they willing to speak their mind, etc. I've been on the side to select a captain, albeit at a 2nd XV school level, and this was the sort of stuff we discussed as a coaching team.

Analytics is not the be-all and end-all of selection, and is only part of the picture, but you can not underplay its importance in this day and age. It's probably also why the trial games aren't a thing any more, other than timing - you can't really get a full picture based on one game played in a semi-festival atmosphere. It might provide some insight, but there are far too many variables that can affect a player's performance.

If you were to boil it down, it would be:

Step 1: Run the numbers and call them into the training camp.
Step 2: How do they fit in with each other? Do they get along? Is he a bit of a cunt?
Step 3: Is their skillset where it needs to be? Can he be taught? Does he have a growth mindset, and if not, can he be taught to have one?