Premiership run-in

[Puja]

Exeter - 70 points
Irish (A)
Sale (H)
Quins (A)

Saracens - 62
Bath (H)
Irish (A)
Gloucester (H)

Leicester - 56
Saints (H)
Newcastle (H)
Sale (A)

Wasps - 56
Worcester (H)
Saints (H)
Newcastle (A)

Newcastle - 54
Sale (H)
Leicester (A)
Wasps (H)

Sale - 52
Newcastle (A)
Exeter (A)
Leicester (H)

Gloucester - 51
Quins (H)
Bath (H)
Saracens (A)

Bath - 46
Saracens (A)
Gloucester (A)
Irish (H)

Harlequins - 36
Gloucester (A)
Worcester (A)
Exeter (H)

Northampton - 32
Leicester (A)
Wasps (A)
Worcester (H)

Worcester - 31
Wasps (A)
Quins (H)
Saints (A)

London Irish - 22
Exeter (H)
Saracens (H)
Bath (A)

[Puja]

Couple of things stand out from that. Firstly, Irish are utterly screwed, no matter what the maths say. They need a minimum of 10 points, have one of the hardest run-ins, and Worcester above them have one of the easier run-ins.

You'd also think that Newcastle might struggle to get into Europe now. They've gone off the boil somewhat and Leicester away and Wasps at home are very hard games, with Sale not being a gimme either. Their destiny's in their own hands, but you'd have to say they need a win next Friday.

Leicester and Wasps both have good run-ins they've both got 5 points wins lined up from Saints, with two other winnable games. You'd expect them to claim the last two play-off places. Bath are going to struggle to get Europe now - a loss to Saracens and Glaws beating Quins next weekend would leave them at least 8 points adrift of 6th with only 10 available.

At the bottom end, Worcester have Quins at home and Saints away and really should be looking to target 9th position from here. It's entirely plausible that neither Quins nor Saints could win again this season, although both have enough quality to ruin someone else's day out of the blue.

Puja

[fivepointer]

Dont think there's going to be any change in the top 4. Exeter, Saracens, Tigers & Wasps will contest the play offs.
Its 2 out of 3 for the last two top 6 places. I'm going for Falcons and Gloucester with Sale just missing out. Fridays game between Falcons and Sale could be decisive. Glos have two winnable home games that will probably be enough for them.
At the bottom, Irish are very unlikely to win two of their remaining games.

[francoisfou]

Yes, Tigers and Wasps for 3rd and 4th - although if you'd have said to me at Christmas that Tigers would be in the mix, I'd have laughed! The turnaround in their fortunes has been impressive, largely due to the significant improvement in their forward play since the arrival of Bakewell.
So where would they rather go for a semi-final? They got a win with a bp at Sarries not so long ago during a 6N weekend when both teams were short of first choice players. Either way, a semi-final is a one-off game and if I were a gambling man (which I'm not, sir!!), I'd put a tenner on Tigers to get to Twickers!

[Which Tyler]

Bath - 46
Saracens (A)
Gloucester (A)
Irish (H)

I don't like this thread

[CONVEX HULL]

Yes, Tigers and Wasps for 3rd and 4th - although if you'd have said to me at Christmas that Tigers would be in the mix, I'd have laughed! The turnaround in their fortunes has been impressive, largely due to the significant improvement in their forward play since the arrival of Bakewell.
So where would they rather go for a semi-final? They got a win with a bp at Sarries not so long ago during a 6N weekend when both teams were short of first choice players. Either way, a semi-final is a one-off game and if I were a gambling man (which I'm not, sir!!), I'd put a tenner on Tigers to get to Twickers!

Sarries were short of 23 first choice players, if I recall correctly. They were still short of three or four first choice players this weekend; Saracens will be hard to beat now they are out of the European competition.

[Tigersman]

Yes, Tigers and Wasps for 3rd and 4th - although if you'd have said to me at Christmas that Tigers would be in the mix, I'd have laughed! The turnaround in their fortunes has been impressive, largely due to the significant improvement in their forward play since the arrival of Bakewell.
So where would they rather go for a semi-final? They got a win with a bp at Sarries not so long ago during a 6N weekend when both teams were short of first choice players. Either way, a semi-final is a one-off game and if I were a gambling man (which I'm not, sir!!), I'd put a tenner on Tigers to get to Twickers!

Sarries were short of 23 first choice players, if I recall correctly. They were still short of three or four first choice players this weekend; Saracens will be hard to beat now they are out of the European competition.

Well that's a bit of an exaggeration would like to see your first choice 23 involving none of the players in the Saracens v Tigers game
Saracens: Goode; Earle, Bosch, Barritt, Wyles; Lozowski, Spencer; Barrington, Brits, Figallo, Day, Isiekwe, Clark, Burger, Wray.

Replacements: Spurling, Thompson-Stringer, Lamositele, Flanagan, Vailanu, Whiteley, Malins, Segun.

I'm not saying that isn't close to your full squad but would say at least 8 of those get into the 23.

[Puja]

Bath - 46
Saracens (A)
Gloucester (A)
Irish (H)

I don't like this thread

The money men might be pleased about Bath playing at Twickenham, but I can't help wonder if they might've got a result against Leicester at the Rec. I think there's still a 7th place play-off against a French side for the last spot in the ERC this year? That could still be on.

Yes, Tigers and Wasps for 3rd and 4th - although if you'd have said to me at Christmas that Tigers would be in the mix, I'd have laughed! The turnaround in their fortunes has been impressive, largely due to the significant improvement in their forward play since the arrival of Bakewell.
So where would they rather go for a semi-final? They got a win with a bp at Sarries not so long ago during a 6N weekend when both teams were short of first choice players. Either way, a semi-final is a one-off game and if I were a gambling man (which I'm not, sir!!), I'd put a tenner on Tigers to get to Twickers!

Sarries were short of 23 first choice players, if I recall correctly. They were still short of three or four first choice players this weekend; Saracens will be hard to beat now they are out of the European competition.

Not an unreasonable point - it was a good time to play Sarries, so I'm not sure how much can be read into it.

I'd back a Saracens vs Exeter final every day of the week, but Wasps and Leicester are going to be dangerous opposition, so it could be anyone's title. Normally, I'd feel a bit ambivalent on the thought of us winning the title while being such a number of league points behind the leaders, but we're finishing this season so strongly and there's been such a change in our play that we definitely deserve to be up there in the conversation.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

Bath - 46
Saracens (A)
Gloucester (A)
Irish (H)

I don't like this thread

The money men might be pleased about Bath playing at Twickenham, but I can't help wonder if they might've got a result against Leicester at the Rec. I think there's still a 7th place play-off against a French side for the last spot in the ERC this year? That could still be on.

TBH, with the teams available, I'm not sure it would have gone differently - Knight and Delmas would still have been too weak to cope with Genge; and we'd still have suffered from the bludgeoning up front, and absolute refusal to keep the ball for more than 2 phases; and consequent knackerdness in the last 15 minutes to let the score board flatter you.

The other aspect to the big days at Twickenham, isn't just the £££ of the day itself, but to a degree providing proof of concept for a larger stadium on the Rec. We can sell out 14,400 there, and sell 60k+ at Twickers, it will be much easier to attract investors than if we did neither of those things.

[Mellsblue]

Bath - 46
Saracens (A)
Gloucester (A)
Irish (H)

I don't like this thread

The money men might be pleased about Bath playing at Twickenham, but I can't help wonder if they might've got a result against Leicester at the Rec. I think there's still a 7th place play-off against a French side for the last spot in the ERC this year? That could still be on.

Yes, Tigers and Wasps for 3rd and 4th - although if you'd have said to me at Christmas that Tigers would be in the mix, I'd have laughed! The turnaround in their fortunes has been impressive, largely due to the significant improvement in their forward play since the arrival of Bakewell.
So where would they rather go for a semi-final? They got a win with a bp at Sarries not so long ago during a 6N weekend when both teams were short of first choice players. Either way, a semi-final is a one-off game and if I were a gambling man (which I'm not, sir!!), I'd put a tenner on Tigers to get to Twickers!

Sarries were short of 23 first choice players, if I recall correctly. They were still short of three or four first choice players this weekend; Saracens will be hard to beat now they are out of the European competition.

Not an unreasonable point - it was a good time to play Sarries, so I'm not sure how much can be read into it.

I'd back a Saracens vs Exeter final every day of the week, but Wasps and Leicester are going to be dangerous opposition, so it could be anyone's title. Normally, I'd feel a bit ambivalent on the thought of us winning the title while being such a number of league points behind the leaders, but we're finishing this season so strongly and there's been such a change in our play that we definitely deserve to be up there in the conversation.

Puja

I think the organisers have seen sense and the spare place is going to the winners of the Challenge Cup.

[Puja]

I think there's still a 7th place play-off against a French side for the last spot in the ERC this year? That could still be on.

Puja

I think the organisers have seen sense and the spare place is going to the winners of the Challenge Cup.

A quick google tells me that one of Glaws and Newcastle are guaranteed to be in the final - what happens if one of them wins and they're already in the top 6? Does that mean the 7th place just qualifies automatically?

Puja

[Scrumhead]

Dunno? I would imagine it would go to the losing finalist instead?

[CONVEX HULL]

Yes, Tigers and Wasps for 3rd and 4th - although if you'd have said to me at Christmas that Tigers would be in the mix, I'd have laughed! The turnaround in their fortunes has been impressive, largely due to the significant improvement in their forward play since the arrival of Bakewell.
So where would they rather go for a semi-final? They got a win with a bp at Sarries not so long ago during a 6N weekend when both teams were short of first choice players. Either way, a semi-final is a one-off game and if I were a gambling man (which I'm not, sir!!), I'd put a tenner on Tigers to get to Twickers!

Sarries were short of 23 first choice players, if I recall correctly. They were still short of three or four first choice players this weekend; Saracens will be hard to beat now they are out of the European competition.

Well that's a bit of an exaggeration would like to see your first choice 23 involving none of the players in the Saracens v Tigers game
Saracens: Goode; Earle, Bosch, Barritt, Wyles; Lozowski, Spencer; Barrington, Brits, Figallo, Day, Isiekwe, Clark, Burger, Wray.

Replacements: Spurling, Thompson-Stringer, Lamositele, Flanagan, Vailanu, Whiteley, Malins, Segun.

I'm not saying that isn't close to your full squad but would say at least 8 of those get into the 23.

None of that bench, other than Malins, would get into a 23. I didn't say the entire starting 23 wouldn't be in a first team, rather that 23 players that might reasonably get into the squad for a 'serious' match were not available. Saracens has rather more than 23 players available as 'first choice'.

Mako V
Billy V
Farrell
Maitland
Williams
George
Kruis
Itoje
Koch
Taylor
Wigglesworth
Rhodes
Tolofua

..all of those, and a few I have probably missed, would have got into the 23 you posted above. That includes eleven internationals and a few Lions.

[Puja]

Dunno? I would imagine it would go to the losing finalist instead?

Good guess!

In accordance with a decision of the EPCR Board comprising the nine unions, federations and league bodies, the 20th place in the Champions Cup will be determined as follows:

i) Champions Cup winner, if not already qualified
ii) Challenge Cup winner, if not already qualified
iii) Challenge Cup losing finalist, if not already qualified
iv) Play-off match between the losing Challenge Cup semi-finalists, if not already qualified
v) Highest ranked non-qualified club by virtue of league position from the same league as the Champions Cup winner

However, as things stand, i, ii, iii, and iv all result in teams that are in qualification spots (although Cardiff and Pau are hardly secure in those positions) and so a Newcastle or Gloucester win would result in the 7th placed team qualifying.

Puja

[Puja]

Exeter - 75 points
Sale (H)
Quins (A)

Saracens - 67
Irish (A)
Gloucester (H)

Wasps - 61
Saints (H)
Newcastle (A)

Newcastle - 59
Leicester (A)
Wasps (H)

Leicester - 57
Newcastle (H)
Sale (A)

Gloucester - 56
Bath (H)
Saracens (A)

Sale - 54
Exeter (A)
Leicester (H)

Bath - 46
Gloucester (A)
Irish (H)

Harlequins - 36
Worcester (A)
Exeter (H)

Northampton - 36
Wasps (A)
Worcester (H)

Worcester - 31
Quins (H)
Saints (A)

London Irish - 22
Saracens (H)
Bath (A)

[Puja]

So, upshots of this weekend - Bath can only mathematically get into 6th place by two 5 point wins and Gloucester not picking up another point; despite being 3rd at the start of the weekend, Leicester's inability to finish against Saints puts them at worrying risk of dropping out of Europe, let alone the play-offs; Quins vs Worcester looks like it might be the game to see who finishes 11th; and London Irish are screwed if they can't get 5 points against Saracens.

I really do want Newcastle to get into the play-offs this year, but I'd like Leicester to get into Europe more. Wouldn't mind a 4-try each draw in a fortnight and Wasps to lose their last two to make everyone happy.

Puja

[Tigersman]

So, upshots of this weekend - Bath can only mathematically get into 6th place by two 5 point wins and Gloucester not picking up another point; despite being 3rd at the start of the weekend, Leicester's inability to finish against Saints puts them at worrying risk of dropping out of Europe, let alone the play-offs; Quins vs Worcester looks like it might be the game to see who finishes 11th; and London Irish are screwed if they can't get 5 points against Saracens.

I really do want Newcastle to get into the play-offs this year, but I'd like Leicester to get into Europe more. Wouldn't mind a 4-try each draw in a fortnight and Wasps to lose their last two to make everyone happy.

Puja

How about
Saints beat Wasps
Tigers beat Falcons
Falcons beat Wasps
Tigers beat Sale

And then Tigers and Falcons are in the pay-offs.

[Scrumhead]

Still lots to play for plenty of teams. Realistically it’s only Quins, Saints, Worcester and London Irish that are playing for pride. The other eight sides all have something to play for.

[CONVEX HULL]

The last round will be entertaining, by which time Exeter and Saracens may not be obliged to put out their strongest teams, although my guess is that Saracens will want to give Billy V, Koch and Rhodes game time. Exeter's squad is so strong that even their reserves should cause Quins a degree of trouble.

[Puja]

The last round will be entertaining, by which time Exeter and Saracens may not be obliged to put out their strongest teams, although my guess is that Saracens will want to give Billy V, Koch and Rhodes game time. Exeter's squad is so strong that even their reserves should cause Quins a degree of trouble.

If Sarries need to rest anyone, would they not be more tempted by the Irish game, so they can then have a run-up to the semis? Or do you think they're likely to want to 100% mathematically guarantee the home semi before rotating?

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Billy V, Koch and Rhodes game time.

These three coming back is huge. Assuming they hit their straps immediately, I’d change Exeter from favourites to joint favourites.

[fivepointer]

Ideal (but highly unlikely) sequence of results for the neutral.

Sale win at Exeter leaving with on 58 pts.
Tigers beat Falcons without BP leaving them with 61 pts.
Falcons get a losing BP leaving them on 60 pts.
Saints beat Wasps who do get a losing BP leaving them on 62 pts.
Glos beat Bath with a BP leaving them on 61 pts.

So on the final weekend we have Falcons v Wasps, Sale v Tigers and Saracens v Glos to decide the final top 4 and 6 places.

[Stom]

Say what you will, but aside from the very bottom and top of the table, at least the AP has competition!

Shame the quality has been so low this year.

[Mellsblue]

The quality has been low but, bar LI, Quins and Saints, I’d say everyone has improved as the season has gone on. If Quins and Saints sort their lives out next season and Bruzzle recruit well, next season could be a humdinger.

[Puja]

Exeter - 75 points
Sale (H)
Quins (A)

Saracens - 67
Irish (A)
Gloucester (H)

Wasps - 61
Saints (H)
Newcastle (A)

Newcastle - 59
Leicester (A)
Wasps (H)

Leicester - 57
Newcastle (H)
Sale (A)

Gloucester - 56
Bath (H)
Saracens (A)

Sale - 54
Exeter (A)
Leicester (H)

Bath - 46
Gloucester (A)
Irish (H)

Harlequins - 36
Worcester (A)
Exeter (H)

Northampton - 36
Wasps (A)
Worcester (H)

Worcester - 31
Quins (H)
Saints (A)

London Irish - 22
Saracens (H)
Bath (A)

Show me a Bath supporter at this point that thought 6th place was still on! Incredible set of results for them to squeeze in by the skin of their teeth.

Puja