RugbyRebels

There was an article in the Herald this morning reckoning there will be no bolters for the RWC2019 All Blacks squad. As a test, I’d thought I would see how many realistic All Blacks XVs I could make using players:
• capped since RWC2015
• named only in positions in which they had been capped
• still technically* available for the All Blacks
• assumed to be fit

The idea is for the teams to be in order of strength while following the above rules. E.g. you might think Kaino a better 6 than Dixon, but that would leave a gap at 3rd XV lock with no eligible player available (Kaino started at lock in the loss to Ireland, so qualifies).

This limits us to three XVs because we have only capped 3 half backs. It leaves us a bit stretched at lock and 10 (the task being complicated by the fact nearly every 10, wing and full-back has played in more than one of those positions, hence Sopoaga). Where do you reckon I have gone wrong?** It seems a bit rough using D-Mac as 3rd string fullback...

1st XV:
JPT Moody
DS Coles
OT Franks
SL Whitelock
BA Retallick
LIJ Squire
SJ Cane
KJ Read
AL Smith
BJ Barrett
RE Ioane
S Williams
RS Crotty
IJA Dagg
BR Smith

2nd XV:
GZK Tu'inukuafe
CJD Taylor
AOHM Tu'ungafasi
L Romano
SK Barrett
EC Dixon
MB Todd
LC Whitelock
TTR Perenara
R Mo'unga
WR Naholo
AR Lienert-Brown
MF Fekitoa
NR Milner-Skudder
JM Barrett

3rd XV
KS Hames
LJ Coltman
NE Laulala
PT Tuipulotu
J Kaino
VTL Fifita
SM Frizzell
AS Savea
TNJ Kerr-Barlow
LZ Sopoaga
SJ Savea
KH Laumape
EJ Goodhue
DK Havili
DS McKenzie

I believe (but I'm not 100% on this) the only unused, eligible players are NP Harris, G Moala, JN Hemopo and JW Parsons.

*I’ve been forced to include players who have stated their retirement but are still playing in NZ. Where possible genuine contenders have been preferred.
**I'm sure I will have included someone who's already playing overseas and thus unavailable

Hames/Laulala are the clear backup props to Moody/Franks. They were murdering just about everyone's scrum last season.

I like the idea of the Tu’ Twins. Although they are probably more your impact players than starters, yeah.

More on depth: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/football-soc ... d=12080801

For reference sake, here's the RWC2015 squad divided into categories:

RWC2019 candidate - no concerns
B. Barrett
S. Cane
O. Franks
N. Milner-Skudder
J. Moody
W. Naholo
T. Perenara
B. Retallick (possibly should be in the injury concern group?)
L. Romano
A. Smith
B. Smith
C. Taylor
S. Whitelock

RWC2019 candidate - age/injury concerns
D. Coles
K. Read
S. Williams

Available but bubbling under
J. Savea

Unavailable
D. Carter
W. Crockett
C. Faumuina
M. Fekitoa
B. Franks
J. Kaino
T. Kerr-Barlow
R. McCaw
K. Mealamu
L. Messam
M. Nonu
C. Slade
C. Smith
V. Vito
T. Woodcock

Lizard wrote: RWC2019 candidate - no concerns
B. Barrett
S. Cane
O. Franks
N. Milner-Skudder
J. Moody
W. Naholo
T. Perenara
B. Retallick (possibly should be in the injury concern group?)
L. Romano
A. Smith
B. Smith
C. Taylor
S. Whitelock

Retallick is fine. He doesn't seem to pick up any serious injuries. Romano, on the other hand, is 32 and, at this stage, should only be a 2019 candidate for emergency backup, should injury strike the squad.

Milner-Skudder is the second coming of Richard Kahui; a talented player who is massively injury prone. Like Kahui, still worth persevering with, regardless.

Lizard wrote:RWC2019 candidate - age/injury concerns
D. Coles
K. Read
S. Williams

Read is the most valuable, Williams the most expendable (as in easiest to replace), and Coles the most likely not to be seen again, unfortunately. Wouldn't be at all surprised in Read is the only one to make the 2019 squad.

Lizard wrote:Available but bubbling under
J. Savea

He's done.

There was also a nifty depth visualisation on the final 1014 show on Sky, but can't seem to find it online anywhere.

On reflection, you are right about NMS. He should be in the injury concern category.

I would be surprised if Julian Savea is still playing in NZ by when the World Cup rolls around.

Next issue is the level of new talent. 20 new All Blacks have been capped since RWC2015, and it’s not looking bad.

Solid – should be in the RWC squad
JM Barrett
SK Barrett
KS Hames
RE Ioane
KH Laumape
AR Lienert-Brown
DS McKenzie
AOHM Tu'ungafasi

Adequate – good enough but not demanding selection
LJ Coltman
VTL Fifita
AS Savea
LIJ Squire

Jury out – promising but not enough game time to tell
SM Frizzell
EJ Goodhue
JN Hemopo
R Mo'unga
GZK Tu’inukuafe

Tried and found wanting
DK Havili
S Tamanivalu
EC Dixon

Lizard wrote:Next issue is the level of new talent. 20 new All Blacks have been capped since RWC2015, and it’s not looking bad.

Solid – should be in the RWC squad
JM Barrett
SK Barrett
KS Hames
RE Ioane
KH Laumape
AR Lienert-Brown
DS McKenzie
AOHM Tu'ungafasi

Adequate – good enough but not demanding selection
LJ Coltman
VTL Fifita
AS Savea
LIJ Squire

Jury out – promising but not enough game time to tell
SM Frizzell
EJ Goodhue
JN Hemopo
R Mo'unga
GZK Tu’inukuafe

Tried and found wanting
DK Havili
S Tamanivalu
EC Dixon

Squire is fine, and Ardie Savea, barring injury, will probably be on the plane to Japan next year. My preference for Dillon Hunt is no secret, but I think Todd is probably more in danger from Hunt than Savea is.

A bit harsh on Havili as well, as he played rather well last year when used, but is clearly suffering from a bit of second season blues. That said, he's a valuable player to have around as backline cover, and he can kick from around 60m out, so he's probably worth revisiting at some stage. Right now, he's probably on the same boat as Crotty 4 years ago - valuable to have around, but a bit lost in the shuffle due to depth.

The good thing about the handling of Ardie Savea is that he was a definite “project” being the tour apprentice in 2013, but the selectors have not preferred him over others with better form nor dropped him completely when he didn’t step up as expected.

The depth chart, as I see it:

Loosehead
Moody - The guy
Tuinukuafe, Perry, Hames - 3 guys fighting for 1 spot, and the "Moody spot."
Manu - jury's out on this guy, he's a good veteran, they're keen, but boat's probably sailed. But, stranger things have happened.
Lienert-Brown - Probably 2020 as a likely year for selection


Hooker
Coles, Taylor - Coles obviously will get the nod, but he's perpetually injured, so Taylor's the guy
Harris, Parsons, Coltman, Riccitelli - The likely third hookers. Pretty much a revolving door, with Harris being the favoured one for now
Aumua - 2020

Tighthead
Franks, Tu'ungafasi - Both are first-choice in their selected roles - Owen starts and softens them up, Ofa finishes the game
Laulala - The next cab off the rank as a starting 3
Toomaga-Allen, Moli - Probably 2020 onwards, realistically.
Alaalatoa - Expect to see him capped once he's eligible, assuming he opts to play for NZ

At this stage, expect Moody, Tuinukuafe/Perry/Hames, Coles, Taylor, Harris, Franks, Tu'ungafasi, Laulala as the first choice front-row boys.


Locks
Retallick, Whitelock - The starting pairing, the best in the world
Barrett, Romano - The next set off the rank, but both are closer to Brodie than Whiteock
Franklin - The next aerial specialist lock, i.e., straight Whitelock replacement
Hemopo - The lock/loose forward cover that Hansen has a jones for
Bird, Tuipulotu - The next set of guys. Could make a comeback, but inconsistent form.
Fatialofa, Strange, Goodhue - 2020 onwards


Blindside
Squire - the starting 6
Frizzel, Fifita, Tuafua, Dixon* - The next potential set
Hemopo, Barrett - the lock/loose forwards to be fielded in a pinch

Openside
Cane - duh
Savea - the point of difference
Todd - the perpetually unlucky guy, next cab off the rank. If Savea is not up to it, he'll be there.
Hunt, Blake - At least one of these guys will be the 3rd openside after 2020.


No. 8
Read - the undisputed choice
Whitelock - the next guy
Tuafua, Dixon - potentials, although like with blindside, I'm not sure how Dixon's Japanese contract would affect his availability
Ioane - the selector are clearly interested, and will likely move up, but at the moment, they have reason to be gunshy with him.


Halfback
Smith - the man
Perenara - the back-up
Pulu, Drummond, Weber, Tahuriorangi, Hall - 3rd halfback spot is in flux at the moment, so it could end up being any of these three.


First-five
Barrett - Yep
McKenzie - jury's still out, but obvious potential here
Mo'unga - Probably the long-term second choice 10
Gatland, West, Perofeta - potential call-ups, expect Gatland to make a serious statement at the Highlanders, while West has contributed reasonably with Hawke's Bay and the Hurricanes. Yet to be convinced by Perofeta, who has yet to live up to the hype that surrounds him.


Midfield
SBW, Ryan Crotty - the top boys
ALB, Laumape - next cab off the rank. Lienert-Brown can fit in at 13, while Laumape has shown value as an impact player off the bench.
Goodhue - potential as a long-term 13. Could be a starter by the end of the year.
Tamanivalu - has struggled to step up to international rugby
Aso, Proctor, Faddes - they probably have an eye on them


Wingers
Ioane, Naholo - the premier traditional wingers
Bridge, Ennor, Li, Lam - likely to be on the radar


Fullback/14s
Smith - the obvious choice
McKenzie, Barrett - both can be utilised elsewhere, which makes them useful in a squad where places are limited.
NMH - worth the punt when fit, but is far too injury-prone to be considered reliable
Duffie, Havili, Dagg - the next likely options, not necessarily in this order. All three have their clear strengths.

cashead wrote:The depth chart, as I see it:

Loosehead
Moody - The guy
Tuinukuafe, Perry, Hames - 3 guys fighting for 1 spot, and the "Moody spot."
Manu - jury's out on this guy, he's a good veteran, they're keen, but boat's probably sailed. But, stranger things have happened.
Lienert-Brown - Probably 2020 as a likely year for selection


Hooker
Coles, Taylor - Coles obviously will get the nod, but he's perpetually injured, so Taylor's the guy
Harris, Parsons, Coltman, Riccitelli - The likely third hookers. Pretty much a revolving door, with Harris being the favoured one for now
Aumua - 2020

Tighthead
Franks, Tu'ungafasi - Both are first-choice in their selected roles - Owen starts and softens them up, Ofa finishes the game
Laulala - The next cab off the rank as a starting 3
Toomaga-Allen, Moli - Probably 2020 onwards, realistically.
Alaalatoa - Expect to see him capped once he's eligible, assuming he opts to play for NZ

At this stage, expect Moody, Tuinukuafe/Perry/Hames, Coles, Taylor, Harris, Franks, Tu'ungafasi, Laulala as the first choice front-row boys.


Locks
Retallick, Whitelock - The starting pairing, the best in the world
Barrett, Romano - The next set off the rank, but both are closer to Brodie than Whiteock
Franklin - The next aerial specialist lock, i.e., straight Whitelock replacement
Hemopo - The lock/loose forward cover that Hansen has a jones for
Bird, Tuipulotu - The next set of guys. Could make a comeback, but inconsistent form.
Fatialofa, Strange, Goodhue - 2020 onwards


Blindside
Squire - the starting 6
Frizzel, Fifita, Tuafua, Dixon* - The next potential set
Hemopo, Barrett - the lock/loose forwards to be fielded in a pinch

Openside
Cane - duh
Savea - the point of difference
Todd - the perpetually unlucky guy, next cab off the rank. If Savea is not up to it, he'll be there.
Hunt, Blake - At least one of these guys will be the 3rd openside after 2020.


No. 8
Read - the undisputed choice
Whitelock - the next guy
Tuafua, Dixon - potentials, although like with blindside, I'm not sure how Dixon's Japanese contract would affect his availability
Ioane - the selector are clearly interested, and will likely move up, but at the moment, they have reason to be gunshy with him.


Halfback
Smith - the man
Perenara - the back-up
Pulu, Drummond, Weber, Tahuriorangi, Hall - 3rd halfback spot is in flux at the moment, so it could end up being any of these three.


First-five
Barrett - Yep
McKenzie - jury's still out, but obvious potential here
Mo'unga - Probably the long-term second choice 10
Gatland, West, Perofeta - potential call-ups, expect Gatland to make a serious statement at the Highlanders, while West has contributed reasonably with Hawke's Bay and the Hurricanes. Yet to be convinced by Perofeta, who has yet to live up to the hype that surrounds him.


Midfield
SBW, Ryan Crotty - the top boys
ALB, Laumape - next cab off the rank. Lienert-Brown can fit in at 13, while Laumape has shown value as an impact player off the bench.
Goodhue - potential as a long-term 13. Could be a starter by the end of the year.
Tamanivalu - has struggled to step up to international rugby
Aso, Proctor, Faddes - they probably have an eye on them


Wingers
Ioane, Naholo - the premier traditional wingers
Bridge, Ennor, Li, Lam - likely to be on the radar


Fullback/14s
Smith - the obvious choice
McKenzie, Barrett - both can be utilised elsewhere, which makes them useful in a squad where places are limited.
NMH - worth the punt when fit, but is far too injury-prone to be considered reliable
Duffie, Havili, Dagg - the next likely options, not necessarily in this order. All three have their clear strengths.

Im tempted to do one of these for England but I think Id be disappointed with what lackof depth we have in some positions.

There’s 3rd, 4th and 5th choice players there other countries would start without hesitation.

Our depth is better now in Wales, but nowhere near this.

In all fairness, no one saw Tuinukuafe coming. Hell, he was barely even known in his own home province on January 1st last year.