Six Nations countdown

[Scrumhead]

Probably a bit early, but with six weeks until we kick-off in Dublin, I thought it was worth starting a thread.

Pretty much anything would be an improvement on last season, but in a World Cup year, we really want to build as much momentum as possible and I think we have to be targeting 1st or 2nd as a minimum.

Starting in Dublin is the toughest opening fixture we could have, but as it stands, I think we have more to gain than we have to lose. I don’t think many are expecting us to win and I’d expect Ireland to beat everyone else, so as long as we don’t get hammered, I don’t think a defeat would be terminal. On the other hand, if we can pull off a win, it would give us a massive shot in the arm.

Team-wise, the AIs were more successful than I expected and as it stands, we’re not too badly hit by injuries. Underhill would be a loss given his recent form, but Tom Curry has come back strongly from injury. Cokanasiga will probably struggle to make it which is a shame, but we’re still fairly well stocked for wingers. No word on Watson AFAIK though?

Importantly, I hope we don’t rush Billy back in to action straight away. He may be fine come March, but he’s the type of player that needs a few games to get back up to speed and, as we’ve seen in the past, parachuting him back prematurely, has never worked out well.

I’d be fairly happy leaving the team pretty much as it was (Underhill’s fitness permitting) at the end of the AIs, with a couple of tweaks. Firstly, I really can’t see how Brad Shields can be selected on his current form. He’s been shocking for Wasps, seagulling in the wide channels to no effect and making lots of basic errors. As much as I’m not a massive fan of Hughes, I’d prefer to bring him back in at 8 (until Billy is fit) and shift Wilson to 6. Similarly, I can’t see how Te’o can justify being selected unless he plays more games for Worcester, so I’d be tempted to revert back to Farrell at 12 with Manu coming in at 13. Lastly, Brown has to come back in for Daly IMO. The experiment simply hasn’t worked and Brown is in great form. I’d move Daly back to wing, even if his form doesn’t really warrant selection currently.

Thoughts?

[Puja]

I can't really fault you on any of that. If Watson's fit, I think he has to be parachuted in at 15 - we have to know if that works at international level and give him as much time as possible there. Brown has enough experience and solidity that he doesn't need a long run to drop back in. However, unless Daly suddenly succeeds for Wasps at 15, it's a waste of games to pick him there.

Other than that, the team mostly picks itself with the only concerns being that we're going to continue deliberately hobbling ourselves with Te'o and Shields simply because they own Kiwi passports, and the fact that we still have no-one even challenging Youngs despite his best efforts to lower the bar.

Puja

[Scrumhead]

It’s been very quiet on Watson. I seem to recall he was due back in Jan/Feb, but that doesn’t seem likely ATM unless anyone know any better?

JJ has been ‘a week away’ for about 5 weeks now, but hopefully he’s imminent.

No word on Underhill yet, but I’m fairly optimistic that it’s a short term injury. It looked like he rolled his ankle, so unless there’s a proper sprain/ligament damage, it could be fine. Finger’s crossed anyway.

[Which Tyler]

Watson's never (that I recall) had a more accurate ETA than "early 2019".
And yes, JJ has been 1 week away for about 6 weeks now, and I'm starting to worry about that; it's more than just a reaction to returning to full training.

Underhill was apparently walking around with crutches, but no boot... and forgetting to use the crutches, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Puja]

The fact that they initially tried to strap Underhill up and keep him on made me optimistic. Mind, I'm always baffled by DoRs and medical teams trying to do that in general - if it's the Premiership final or RWC final, then sure, but it's surely better to lose them for an extra 20 minutes of a mid-season game than let them play on and exacerbate an injury that will then keep them out for weeks.

Puja

[Timbo]

According to The Mail Underhill not too bad, should be fine for England. Watson not due back for another 5/6 weeks, and given the nature of his injury I think he has to be considered unavailable until he has quite a few games for Bath under his belt. Joseph close, but same as Watson needs games before he comes into consideration.

[Oakboy]

The first point has to be that Jones must create a selection/preparation environment that gets us to Dublin expecting to win i.e. genuinely believing, not just hoping. That is possible and realistic IF he is capable of getting a best-possible performance from the team (I don't rate his chances too highly but the RFU should claim to be certain that he can as they've left him in the job).

What really counts, therefore, is that he only picks those who will rise to the occasion. Shields should not be in the 23. Others who have underperformed recently - Hughes, Itoje, Kruis, Youngs, Care, Ford, Daly, etc. - have to be at their very best. I hate Farrell at 12 but that's where he should play in Dublin.

The most important returning player would be Launchbury who never underperforms if fit.

I want to see us really rip into Ireland straight from the start. 'Give everything and win, you are good enough', should be Jones's message and anyone who underperforms should be discarded for the RWC regardless of the consequences (Youngs, for example).

[Digby]

Anyone who underperforms in a one off game being dropped from rwc plans is a hell of a standard, I've seen even the likes of McCaw have bad or at least below par games

[Scrumhead]

I simply want to see us play with the level of intensity we showed against NZ. Ireland are always able to raise their game against us and even if we’re not fuelled by the same innate animosity, we should be able to summon the competitive edge to want to wipe the smile of their faces.

I don’t really want Hughes in the side - IMO, he’s always looked laissez faire at best playing for England. However, I doubt Billy will be fully fit, Shields doesn’t even look close to being up to it and Robshaw will barely have had any game time (if any), so playing Hughes at 8 and moving Wilson back to 6 may be the best option.

As an alternative, I’d be tempted to consider leaving Wilson at 8 and playing Underhill at 6 and Curry at 7. Based upon how effective Bath’s back row was with two opensides against Leinster, I think it’s potentially worth trying.

[Which Tyler]

As an alternative, I’d be tempted to consider leaving Wilson at 8 and playing Underhill at 6 and Curry at 7. Based upon how effective Bath’s back row was with two opensides against Leinster, I think it’s potentially worth trying.

This, and I'd rather Mercer on the bench than Hughes

[Scrumhead]

Me too, but I think Mercer will be tainted (in Eddie’s mind) by the Japan game.

It would be nice to see us do something a bit unexpected. The Leinster back row is basically Ireland minus O’Mahony. I don’t see any reason why Underhill, Curry and Wilson couldn’t be effective in a similar way to Underhill, Ellis and Louw. Obviously we’d be weaker in the lineout, but I don’t think any of our back row options are as good a jumper as O’Mahony is anyway. We may as well try to focus on our strengths rather than make inferior selections to try to compensate in an area we’re going to be second best in anyway.

[Oakboy]

Anyone who underperforms in a one off game being dropped from rwc plans is a hell of a standard, I've seen even the likes of McCaw have bad or at least below par games

Normally, I'd agree but it's too late to be sentimental. This is by far the most important competitive game in Jones's time with England. Anyone who can't rise to this occasion simply cannot be worth a place. I don't imagine many players would disagree. The odd mistake or penalty conceded is irrelevant and not what I'm talking about. It's attitude, character and skill under pressure that counts.

[Mikey Brown]

I simply want to see us play with the level of intensity we showed against NZ. Ireland are always able to raise their game against us and even if we’re not fuelled by the same innate animosity, we should be able to summon the competitive edge to want to wipe the smile of their faces.

I don’t really want Hughes in the side - IMO, he’s always looked laissez faire at best playing for England. However, I doubt Billy will be fully fit, Shields doesn’t even look close to being up to it and Robshaw will barely have had any game time (if any), so playing Hughes at 8 and moving Wilson back to 6 may be the best option.

As an alternative, I’d be tempted to consider leaving Wilson at 8 and playing Underhill at 6 and Curry at 7. Based upon how effective Bath’s back row was with two opensides against Leinster, I think it’s potentially worth trying.

Ugh. I'm torn. I'd love to look at Morgan or Mercer (or even one of the Harlequins backrows) ahead of Hughes, as he really hasn't consistently delivered, but against Ireland doesn't seem like a great time to do it. Wilson definitely starts, ideally at 6 but he did far better at 8 than I expected.

Doesn't matter anyway, I'll be shocked if both Shields and Hughes aren't in the 23.

[Timbo]

Sarries have said Billy will definitely be involved this week. If he comes through their next 3 games, with some good minutes under his belt, then he’d probably make my starting team.

[Scrumhead]

We’ll see. Past evidence suggests that Billy needs a little while to regain his sharpness after a lay off. He’s not been at the races when we’ve parachuted him in too quickly before.

If he looks up to it, I’d be more than happy for him to start, but if he doesn’t, I’d rather we didn’t rush him.

[Digby]

Anyone who underperforms in a one off game being dropped from rwc plans is a hell of a standard, I've seen even the likes of McCaw have bad or at least below par games

Normally, I'd agree but it's too late to be sentimental. This is by far the most important competitive game in Jones's time with England. Anyone who can't rise to this occasion simply cannot be worth a place. I don't imagine many players would disagree. The odd mistake or penalty conceded is irrelevant and not what I'm talking about. It's attitude, character and skill under pressure that counts.

I'd reject the premise it's sentimentality to continue to include players who might for a number of reasons simply have a bad game.

One likely example is Sinckler, he's not always shone when starting,and he can lose the plot a little when it comes to discipline.But no way would a bad game from him justify jettisoning the lad

[Which Tyler]

Watson's never (that I recall) had a more accurate ETA than "early 2019".
And yes, JJ has been 1 week away for about 6 weeks now, and I'm starting to worry about that; it's more than just a reaction to returning to full training.

Underhill was apparently walking around with crutches, but no boot... and forgetting to use the crutches, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

OK; so this just in: https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/sport/ot ... iqDpdeJmQc

Sam Underhill also injured an ankle, but his was ligament damage rather than broken and not as serious.
Blackadder expects a minimum of a four-week lay-off for the flanker who has been in great form recently.

Jonathan Joseph is back in full training but is highly unlikely to be in action on the artificial pitch at Sixways.
Blackadder said: "He's coming through and training well. We're hoping he'll be ready in the next two or three weeks."

Taulupe Faletau is also back in full contact training at Farleigh House and, all going well, should make his return from a fractured forearm at some point this month.

Anthony Watson (Achilles), meanwhile, revealed he is hoping to be back in about six weeks when interviewed pitchside before the Tigers game.

So Underhill is still thought to be a reasonably serious sprain - but not known for sure, as that's Todd's expectation to the press; not the the specialist's opinion.
That looks the furthest JJ has come in his return to action; makes it sound like delays now are to do with caution vs valour
Faletau back just in time for Wales
Watson to come back during the 6N - first actual ERA I've seen for him.

[Timbo]

We’ll see. Past evidence suggests that Billy needs a little while to regain his sharpness after a lay off. He’s not been at the races when we’ve parachuted him in too quickly before.

If he looks up to it, I’d be more than happy for him to start, but if he doesn’t, I’d rather we didn’t rush him.

Yes, but each situation after injury (depending on injury and time out etc) is going to be different. I don’t think you can apply a hard and fast rule. For eg, when he came into the team against Ire a couple of years ago he’d had a knee injury, played zero minutes for Sarries and had a cameo off the bench against Sco the week before. In the summer against SA he had been struggling with a hamstring injury for several weeks, so doubt he was training fully.

[fivepointer]

Dublin is 4 games away (2 Feb) - 1 prem, 2 Europe and 1 Prem Cup. Basically the players in contention have 3 games to make their case. For JJ, Watson, Launchbury, Robshaw, Billy and possibly Underhill time may beat them. Its going to be very tight to get in any meaningful game time.
I suspect the squad is going to look very similar to the the one in the autumn. I dont see any bolters on the horizon, though a case could be made for a proper look at our 3rd hooker (LCD?), 3rd choice TH (Schonert, Thomas or a recall for Cole?) or one of the form back rowers (Kvesic, Ellis?) to be given a go at some point during the 6N's.
There is obviously a decision to be made on whether Daly stays at 15, who plays at centre and what to do at 6. Injuries are bound to make things complicated. We deserve a bit of luck on that front.
Expectations must be that we improve on a very poor 2018. We have 3 home games which we should be looking to win. The 2 away games are immensely tricky and will take some winning. Ireland is going to be the toughest of openers.

[Mellsblue]

We’ll see. Past evidence suggests that Billy needs a little while to regain his sharpness after a lay off. He’s not been at the races when we’ve parachuted him in too quickly before.

If he looks up to it, I’d be more than happy for him to start, but if he doesn’t, I’d rather we didn’t rush him.

Yes, but each situation after injury (depending on injury and time out etc) is going to be different. I don’t think you can apply a hard and fast rule. For eg, when he came into the team against Ire a couple of years ago he’d had a knee injury, played zero minutes for Sarries and had a cameo off the bench against Sco the week before. In the summer against SA he had been struggling with a hamstring injury for several weeks, so doubt he was training fully.

He’s also been pretty honest that during the first couple of layoffs he didn’t look after himself very well.

[Digby]

In fairness he did think jellybabies were good for him

[Danno]

Made from actual babies

[Scrumhead]

Dublin is 4 games away (2 Feb) - 1 prem, 2 Europe and 1 Prem Cup. Basically the players in contention have 3 games to make their case. For JJ, Watson, Launchbury, Robshaw, Billy and possibly Underhill time may beat them. Its going to be very tight to get in any meaningful game time.
I suspect the squad is going to look very similar to the the one in the autumn. I dont see any bolters on the horizon, though a case could be made for a proper look at our 3rd hooker (LCD?), 3rd choice TH (Schonert, Thomas or a recall for Cole?) or one of the form back rowers (Kvesic, Ellis?) to be given a go at some point during the 6N's.
There is obviously a decision to be made on whether Daly stays at 15, who plays at centre and what to do at 6. Injuries are bound to make things complicated. We deserve a bit of luck on that front.
Expectations must be that we improve on a very poor 2018. We have 3 home games which we should be looking to win. The 2 away games are immensely tricky and will take some winning. Ireland is going to be the toughest of openers.

Yep. Realistically, it’s a maximum of three games for most players. Given most of the teams involved in European competitions have nothing to play for, they may even rest some of the England players, so it might even be less.

As good as he’s been, Kvesic is highly unlikely to make the squad so I suspect we’ll see more of Bad Shields and Hughes. Hopefully, not at the expense of Wilson.

Improvement on last year should be a given. I just can’t even contemplate us being that bad again.

As I said in the OP, I think Dublin is an opportunity for us. If we win, it’s massive and if we lose, it won’t be a great surprise. Obviously, getting spanked would be bad news for us, but our games with Ireland are typically low-scoring, so I don’t see that happening. They’re arguably the side under greater pressure, they don’t like being favourites and they’re often slow starters.

[Digby]

If Kvesic makes the squad it's either Eddie pandering to the press, unlikely, or Eddie changing tactics, still less likely. For better or worse Eddie has set his stall out and Kvesic doesn't do what he wants

[twitchy]

When was the last time we went into the 6 nations with a first choice back row? I can't even remember that far.