RugbyRebels

Just been looking at the run ins of the bottom three clubs in the AP with just 6 games to go.

Worcester:
A Quins
H Irish
A Exeter
H Wasps
A Leicester
H Saracens

Newcastle:
A Bath
H Wasps
A Quins
H Irish
A Saracens
H Sale

Irish:
H Gloucester
A Worcester
H Sale
A Newcastle
H Quins
A Wasps

A few thoughts looking at that. The first is that Worcester are lucky to be 13 points up, as that run-in for the last four games is brutal. They want to be safe before then, as I don't see them getting a point out of those games.

Newcastle have a couple of games where they should hope to get points and they do have the theoretically easiest final day fixture (depending on if already qualified teams rest players for the play-offs of course). They're 8 league points and 82 points difference above Irish, so it's effectively a 9 point gap. They win the game vs the Exiles and it's game over, you'd have thought.

Irish have a pretty good run in - I'd say 5 of the 6 games are potentially winnable and their only game against a play-off contender is last when Wasps may be resting players for the play-offs. The escape is definitely on. However, they need to make up more than two victories worth of points on Newcastle and it basically needs to start this weekend.

Massive game on Friday - Newcastle go to an injury and international hit Bath.

Puja

Irish have to go to Wuss and Falcons. Lose those and I think thats them done for.

Agreed, Irish need to pull Wuss and Falcons down to them by winning away. But even with their easier run in, I'm not sure they can do it. They should have beaten Sarries on Saturday quite comfortably really, but somehow contrived to not get anything from the game.

I think and hope Wuss are safe. They've had a big turnaround in mentality since Hougaard arrived and belief is strong. May even scrape a point or two out of the last few games.
Irish look done in my view having been on the other side of the relegation battle with Wuss a few times. They look a beaten side and as winning is a mental game as much as an actual event they will struggle to get back into that mindframe

gthedog wrote:I think and hope Wuss are safe. They've had a big turnaround in mentality since Hougaard arrived and belief is strong. May even scrape a point or two out of the last few games.
Irish look done in my view having been on the other side of the relegation battle with Wuss a few times. They look a beaten side and as winning is a mental game as much as an actual event they will struggle to get back into that mindframe

I think a win in one of the next two games, coupled with Newcastle getting nothing, will see the belief come flooding right back. If Newcastle win against Bath and the gap goes out to 12 points, even if only for 2 days? I think you're right and they won't have the belief to pull themselves back up again.

There's a few good assets to be bought out of a relegation. I'd imagine the youngsters would either stay or already be on their way to Bath, but I can't imagine the likes of Franks, Aulika, Symons, or Cowan would be likely to follow them down to the Championship.

Puja

Puja wrote:Just been looking at the run ins of the bottom three clubs in the AP with just 6 games to go.

Worcester:
A Quins
H Irish
A Exeter
H Wasps
A Leicester
H Saracens

Newcastle:
A Bath
H Wasps
A Quins
H Irish
A Saracens
H Sale

Irish:
H Gloucester
A Worcester
H Sale
A Newcastle
H Quins
A Wasps

A few thoughts looking at that. The first is that Worcester are lucky to be 13 points up, as that run-in for the last four games is brutal. They want to be safe before then, as I don't see them getting a point out of those games.

Newcastle have a couple of games where they should hope to get points and they do have the theoretically easiest final day fixture (depending on if already qualified teams rest players for the play-offs of course). They're 8 league points and 82 points difference above Irish, so it's effectively a 9 point gap. They win the game vs the Exiles and it's game over, you'd have thought.

Irish have a pretty good run in - I'd say 5 of the 6 games are potentially winnable and their only game against a play-off contender is last when Wasps may be resting players for the play-offs. The escape is definitely on. However, they need to make up more than two victories worth of points on Newcastle and it basically needs to start this weekend.

Massive game on Friday - Newcastle go to an injury and international hit Bath.

Puja

Is that the game you think Newcastle should get points from, other than Irish?
Irish probably need at least 12 points. Two wins against their rivals is a big part of that. The rest...?

We're going down.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Puja wrote:Just been looking at the run ins of the bottom three clubs in the AP with just 6 games to go.

Worcester:
A Quins
H Irish
A Exeter
H Wasps
A Leicester
H Saracens

Newcastle:
A Bath
H Wasps
A Quins
H Irish
A Saracens
H Sale

Irish:
H Gloucester
A Worcester
H Sale
A Newcastle
H Quins
A Wasps

A few thoughts looking at that. The first is that Worcester are lucky to be 13 points up, as that run-in for the last four games is brutal. They want to be safe before then, as I don't see them getting a point out of those games.

Newcastle have a couple of games where they should hope to get points and they do have the theoretically easiest final day fixture (depending on if already qualified teams rest players for the play-offs of course). They're 8 league points and 82 points difference above Irish, so it's effectively a 9 point gap. They win the game vs the Exiles and it's game over, you'd have thought.

Irish have a pretty good run in - I'd say 5 of the 6 games are potentially winnable and their only game against a play-off contender is last when Wasps may be resting players for the play-offs. The escape is definitely on. However, they need to make up more than two victories worth of points on Newcastle and it basically needs to start this weekend.

Massive game on Friday - Newcastle go to an injury and international hit Bath.

Puja

Is that the game you think Newcastle should get points from, other than Irish?
Irish probably need at least 12 points. Two wins against their rivals is a big part of that. The rest...?

We're going down.

I think Bath's one of their best bets for a win. On the other hand, I could see potential for LBP against Bath, Quins, Irish and Sale, which would be just as good.

On the bright side for you, you will be playing Sale at the start of their week where they play Bath twice for the postponed game, so they might rotate a bit against you?

Puja

At what point will the top 4 start resting players for the semis? Some of those final brutal games might be good chances for 5 points.

Irish have the best run-in but I think they need to beat Newcastle to stand any chance. I think Wuss are safe and Newcastle seem to be able to intermittently pull a performance out of the bag.

If Irish do go down would they stay at the Mad Stad?

Mellsblue wrote:Irish have the best run-in but I think they need to beat Newcastle to stand any chance. I think Wuss are safe and Newcastle seem to be able to intermittently pull a performance out of the bag.

If Irish do go down would they stay at the Mad Stad?

You'd've thought so, at least for the first year to see if they bounced straight back. I can see them crushing the Championship unbeaten, as old club men like Paice and Ojo would likely stay on and the big name brand would stop them losing too many youngsters.

Puja

Puja wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:Irish have the best run-in but I think they need to beat Newcastle to stand any chance. I think Wuss are safe and Newcastle seem to be able to intermittently pull a performance out of the bag.

If Irish do go down would they stay at the Mad Stad?

You'd've thought so, at least for the first year to see if they bounced straight back. I can see them crushing the Championship unbeaten, as old club men like Paice and Ojo would likely stay on and the big name brand would stop them losing too many youngsters.

Puja

That place feels like a morgue at the best of times. Goodness knows what it'll be like with Champ crowds. I was hoping they could use relegation as a good opportunity to find their own digs.

You also assume Bristol will be promoted which, as history tells us, is not a done deal.

Mellsblue wrote:

Puja wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:Irish have the best run-in but I think they need to beat Newcastle to stand any chance. I think Wuss are safe and Newcastle seem to be able to intermittently pull a performance out of the bag.

If Irish do go down would they stay at the Mad Stad?

You'd've thought so, at least for the first year to see if they bounced straight back. I can see them crushing the Championship unbeaten, as old club men like Paice and Ojo would likely stay on and the big name brand would stop them losing too many youngsters.

Puja

That place feels like a morgue at the best of times. Goodness knows what it'll be like with Champ crowds. I was hoping they could use relegation as a good opportunity to find their own digs.

You also assume Bristol will be promoted which, as history tells us, is not a done deal.

Agree on Mad Stad - awful place
Would like to see Brizzle up

Mellsblue wrote:

Puja wrote: You'd've thought so, at least for the first year to see if they bounced straight back. I can see them crushing the Championship unbeaten, as old club men like Paice and Ojo would likely stay on and the big name brand would stop them losing too many youngsters.

Puja

That place feels like a morgue at the best of times. Goodness knows what it'll be like with Champ crowds. I was hoping they could use relegation as a good opportunity to find their own digs.

You also assume Bristol will be promoted which, as history tells us, is not a done deal.

Own digs cost money though and it's not like there's lots of building space or free stadia around London. If Irish do stay down for more than one season, I think they could be in a lot of trouble. The Madejski wouldn't be affordable beyond one season and without a ground, without a big backer, and facing an uncertain number of years out of the Premiership, they could pull an Orrell.

One interesting factoid - if London Irish Scottish Richmond Ltd (to give them their full name) do go down, then they'll end up in the same league as the two teams that they absorbed in the "merger" back in 1999, as it looks like Richmond will get promotion to the Championship. I think there may still be a few bitter Richmond stalwarts looking forward to that.

Puja

Puja wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Puja wrote: You'd've thought so, at least for the first year to see if they bounced straight back. I can see them crushing the Championship unbeaten, as old club men like Paice and Ojo would likely stay on and the big name brand would stop them losing too many youngsters.

Puja

That place feels like a morgue at the best of times. Goodness knows what it'll be like with Champ crowds. I was hoping they could use relegation as a good opportunity to find their own digs.

You also assume Bristol will be promoted which, as history tells us, is not a done deal.

Own digs cost money though and it's not like there's lots of building space or free stadia around London. If Irish do stay down for more than one season, I think they could be in a lot of trouble. The Madejski wouldn't be affordable beyond one season and without a ground, without a big backer, and facing an uncertain number of years out of the Premiership, they could pull an Orrell.

One interesting factoid - if London Irish Scottish Richmond Ltd (to give them their full name) do go down, then they'll end up in the same league as the two teams that they absorbed in the "merger" back in 1999, as it looks like Richmond will get promotion to the Championship. I think there may still be a few bitter Richmond stalwarts looking forward to that.

Puja

Now that would be amusing and I am sure there are a lot who would want to see that happen

Puja wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Puja wrote: You'd've thought so, at least for the first year to see if they bounced straight back. I can see them crushing the Championship unbeaten, as old club men like Paice and Ojo would likely stay on and the big name brand would stop them losing too many youngsters.

Puja

That place feels like a morgue at the best of times. Goodness knows what it'll be like with Champ crowds. I was hoping they could use relegation as a good opportunity to find their own digs.

You also assume Bristol will be promoted which, as history tells us, is not a done deal.

Own digs cost money though and it's not like there's lots of building space or free stadia around London. If Irish do stay down for more than one season, I think they could be in a lot of trouble. The Madejski wouldn't be affordable beyond one season and without a ground, without a big backer, and facing an uncertain number of years out of the Premiership, they could pull an Orrell.

One interesting factoid - if London Irish Scottish Richmond Ltd (to give them their full name) do go down, then they'll end up in the same league as the two teams that they absorbed in the "merger" back in 1999, as it looks like Richmond will get promotion to the Championship. I think there may still be a few bitter Richmond stalwarts looking forward to that.

Puja

The Mad Stad isnt that profitable for them with crowd numbers as they are. They'd be moving towards losing money if they were getting Championship attendances. Might be a good excuse to rip up the plan and start again.

That would be a lovely bit of irony. Though, assuming Bristol and Richmond up and Irish and Moseley down, it's pretty much becoming a London league.

Mellsblue wrote: The Mad Stad isnt that profitable for them with crowd numbers as they are. They'd be moving towards losing money if they were getting Championship attendances. Might be a good excuse to rip up the plan and start again.

Not denying that, but start again where? And with what?

Mind, the Kassam's looking for a new tenant...

Puja

Puja wrote:

Mellsblue wrote: The Mad Stad isnt that profitable for them with crowd numbers as they are. They'd be moving towards losing money if they were getting Championship attendances. Might be a good excuse to rip up the plan and start again.

Not denying that, but start again where? And with what?

Mind, the Kassam's looking for a new tenant...

Puja

No idea and I believe the owners are pretty minted. Wasn't there talk of being co-owners with Brentford or was that Wasps? Either way, it gives them the incentive to think again in a season where the don't need a large stadium and where they are going to take a financial hit either way. I think everyone knows that being tenant isn't the business model for a successful Prem club.

Brentford's stadium is for football only - the planning permission doesn't allow an expansion of "event" days for matches.

Irish's new facilities (having sold their lovely old amateur ground for housing) are fine as a training base, but have less capacity than Richmond does now. I wonder if - bizarrely - their best bet wouldn't be to play there!

In terms of plucking the squad, Symons would be a good addition anywhere, young Williams and Lewington would also be welcome in any squad. It was noticeable that Franks didn't refer to Irish as "we" once when he was doing the punditry (if you could call it that) for BT on Saturday night, so I very much doubt he would stick around.

Great win for Wuss.

Good win for Irish this weekend. I think it's massively turned things around in terms of mindset and belief - if Newcastle has taken their chance against Bath, it'd've been a 12 point gap going into Sunday and all the pressure that entailed. Now it's only a 5 point gap and Irish have to be looking at their fixtures and believing that the escape is on.

Newcastle badly need Worcester to do them a favour this weekend. If Irish win, then it's likely a 1 point gap at the bottom and the momentum will all be against the Falcons.

Puja

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Puja wrote:Just been looking at the run ins of the bottom three clubs in the AP with just 6 games to go.

Worcester:
A Quins
H Irish
A Exeter
H Wasps
A Leicester
H Saracens

Newcastle:
A Bath
H Wasps
A Quins
H Irish
A Saracens
H Sale

Irish:
H Gloucester
A Worcester
H Sale
A Newcastle
H Quins
A Wasps

A few thoughts looking at that. The first is that Worcester are lucky to be 13 points up, as that run-in for the last four games is brutal. They want to be safe before then, as I don't see them getting a point out of those games.

Newcastle have a couple of games where they should hope to get points and they do have the theoretically easiest final day fixture (depending on if already qualified teams rest players for the play-offs of course). They're 8 league points and 82 points difference above Irish, so it's effectively a 9 point gap. They win the game vs the Exiles and it's game over, you'd have thought.

Irish have a pretty good run in - I'd say 5 of the 6 games are potentially winnable and their only game against a play-off contender is last when Wasps may be resting players for the play-offs. The escape is definitely on. However, they need to make up more than two victories worth of points on Newcastle and it basically needs to start this weekend.

Massive game on Friday - Newcastle go to an injury and international hit Bath.

Puja

Is that the game you think Newcastle should get points from, other than Irish?
Irish probably need at least 12 points. Two wins against their rivals is a big part of that. The rest...?

We're going down.

The rest has been taken care of!! Wins against Wuss and Falcons need to follow and a cheeky bonus point here and there would help. I've suddenly got hope.

Puja wrote:Good win for Irish this weekend. I think it's massively turned things around in terms of mindset and belief - if Newcastle has taken their chance against Bath, it'd've been a 12 point gap going into Sunday and all the pressure that entailed. Now it's only a 5 point gap and Irish have to be looking at their fixtures and believing that the escape is on.

Newcastle badly need Worcester to do them a favour this weekend. If Irish win, then it's likely a 1 point gap at the bottom and the momentum will all be against the Falcons.

Puja

A fantastic effort from Newcastle to keep the relegation battle alive, from missing easy kicks at goal, missing easy tackles in the middle of the pitch, to cretinous discipline from Lawson they snatched a LBP from an easy win. I even saw Richards say the ref went against them, which is one way to comment on a game when you had 15 Vs 13 for a decent period.

Digby wrote:

Puja wrote:Good win for Irish this weekend. I think it's massively turned things around in terms of mindset and belief - if Newcastle has taken their chance against Bath, it'd've been a 12 point gap going into Sunday and all the pressure that entailed. Now it's only a 5 point gap and Irish have to be looking at their fixtures and believing that the escape is on.

Newcastle badly need Worcester to do them a favour this weekend. If Irish win, then it's likely a 1 point gap at the bottom and the momentum will all be against the Falcons.

Puja

A fantastic effort from Newcastle to keep the relegation battle alive, from missing easy kicks at goal, missing easy tackles in the middle of the pitch, to cretinous discipline from Lawson they snatched a LBP from an easy win. I even saw Richards say the ref went against them, which is one way to comment on a game when you had 15 Vs 13 for a decent period.

I think Glos also deserve a mention.

Mellsblue wrote:
I think Glos also deserve a mention.

I'm spending the day trying to be happy with rugby, so I'll avoid mentioning them for now.

Another one in the bag for Wuss