Wales' tour of NZ

[Lizard]

Saturday, 11 June
New Zealand v Wales (Eden Park)

Tuesday, 14 June
Chiefs v Wales (FMG Stadium Waikato)

Saturday, 18 June
New Zealand v Wales (Westpac Stadium)

Saturday, 25 June
New Zealand v Wales (Forsyth Barr Stadium)

Wales are already talking a big game (eg: http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/story/288919.html). Arguably, a loss to the world's 4th ranked side, alongside a draw with no. 7 and predictable wins over 8, 9 and 14 does not provide a rational basis for success against back-to-back World Champions who have held the no. 1 spot for seven years.

On the other hand, I haven't checked the teams but it seems likely that the touring side will have more experience of playing in New Zealand than any of the previous professional Welsh sides to set foot on NZ soil, assuming a number of survivors from the 2010 tour (two tests v NZ) and the 2011 RWC (7 tests, but none v NZ). Before that, there was only a one-off test in 2003.

In the amateur era, only two Welsh sides made it this far. The 1969 team was fairly easily beaten in two tests and probably contained a few players who had been subjected to the same results in 4 Lions tests in 1966. Understandably, Wales didn't come back to NZ until they absolutely had to, for RWC1987, and got absolutely steamrollered by the soon-to-be champion All Blacks although that match was actually played in Brisbane. Wales came back to NZ the following year, despite being ravaged by league defections, and got walloped in two more tests (aggregate score 109-12) and lost to Waikato, Wellington and North Auckland for good measure (they didn't play Auckland or Canterbury, the two top teams of the day). You can't blame them for taking a 15-year breather after that tour.

Famously, Wales haven't won against NZ in Wales in 15 matches over 62 years. In this decade they have not got within 12 points in any of their 3 tests (aggregate score 107 - 51).

On the other hand, Wales have a coach with some familiarity with NZ conditions. This will be the first time they have had three consecutive shots at defusing the All Black's machine, and that machine will have seven months' of rust to clear as well several key components missing.

It should be an interesting battle. I am certain that NZ will win the series and fairly comfortable that they will do so 3 - 0, but if Wales can do the unthinkable and be the first team beat NZ in their own backyard since September 2009 then it should be something incredible to witness.

Thoughts?

[bruce]

We're going to get marmalised.

[cashead]

I doubt Wales are in danger of winning in June.

[morepork]

I'm keen to see the Chiefs get a crack. Who in the Chufs is likely to be unavailable?

[zer0]

Their All Blacks, I'd imagine...

[morepork]

Thanks Captain Dry Balls.

[cashead]

I'm keen to see the Chiefs get a crack. Who in the Chufs is likely to be unavailable?

By position:

Hooker - probably at least one of Hika Elliot or Nathan Harris
Prop - Nepo Laulala and Pauliasi Manu are both gone for the year, while Hiroshi Yamashita will likely be appearing for Japan.

However, I'd be surprised if there are many Chiefs front-rowers getting called up. While they're at the top of the table, it is largely in spite of their scrummaging, which has been shocking.


Locks - Bird has played well, so he may be unavailable for them. Retallick goes without saying.

Loose forwards - Leitch will def. be playing for Japan in June, unless he gets injured between now and then, and Sam Cane will probably be the starting ABs 7.

Halfbacks - Tawera Kerr-Barlow's just done a mischief, and Gus Pulu got hurt a couple of months ago on Sevens duty. I doubt either will be fit in time for the Welsh, while on current form, Rennie's probably prepared to lose Brad Weber to the ABs as well.

Five-Eighths - Cruden will probably be the starting 10 for the ABs, so Donald may be the option available for Rennie, which would be a fairly enviable proposition.

Midfield - SBW and Ngatai will probably be gone. Tamanivula may not be available, but could get a call-up now that Rene Ranger is out.

Back Three - Would be surprised if Damien McKenzie is not called up, and James Lowe may get the nod as well.

[Spy]

I'm hearing a bit of talk about Wales having a chance of tipping over the AB's with so many experienced players missing, but I think it's unlikely myself. The best chance is almost certainly in in the first Test, when the AB's are often rusty, and probably even more so this year. Even so, I think 3-0 NZ is the most likely result.

I'm looking forward to this tour. I'm going to the Eden Park test, of course, but also heading to Forsyth Barr for the final test. My bro-in-law is Welsh and loves his rugby, so we've got a family road-trip planned. Flying to Queenstown with my Dad and son to where my sister lives, pick them up, and drive down to Dunners for a couple of days. Pretty excited about seeing a test at Forsyth-Barr. Should be a lot of fun.

[morepork]

That's quite a few chunks taken out of the Chufs.

[Len]

Wales were no great shakes in the 6N. Really poor actually so if we don't chin them 3-0 it'll be disappointing.

They play like a div 3 team. The ball never gets to the wings.

[morepork]

Len luvs Whales.

[J Dory]

Wales will be up for this and in with a shot. I like most will be picking 3-0 for the hosts, but it's far from a foregone conclusion IMO.

[morepork]

Shall we start a referee thread now....?

[canta_brian]

Shall we start a referee thread now....?

Add the cheating refs to the unfair advantage of the haka and I am not sure why Wales are bothering.

[Lizard]

Shall we start a referee thread now....?

Add the cheating refs to the unfair advantage of the haka and I am not sure why Wales are bothering.

And I'm predicting that Sam Cane will be permanently offside and ignored by the ref for the whole series, too.

[UKHamlet]

Wales will lose 3-0 and our dirt trackers will lose both the regional games. We're pretty average at the moment and will have no answer to the Blacks' pack. Man for man, your backs are better in every position and maybe only George North would be considered for selection if he were a New Zealander. Even then you have plenty of options in his position, most of whom are as good or better than he is at the moment. Having said all that, I'm looking forward to the tests, just to see if we can get close for a while.

[morepork]

I interested to see if Wawwen can finesse his game plan over a three test series. Or stick with the tried and tried and tried and tested.

[Lizard]

Wales will lose 3-0 and our dirt trackers will lose both the regional games. We're pretty average at the moment and will have no answer to the Blacks' pack. Man for man, your backs are better in every position and maybe only George North would be considered for selection if he were a New Zealander. Even then you have plenty of options in his position, most of whom are as good or better than he is at the moment. Having said all that, I'm looking forward to the tests, just to see if we can get close for a while.

There's only 1 midweek match, v the Chiefs between the 1st and 2nd tests.

We've got a lot of guys lining up for the back 3. Assuming we keep playing 1 big winger and 2 wing/fullback type players, with a utility on the bench, North would need to oust Julian "the Bus" Savea to have a look in (not to mention Waisake Naholo). 38 tries in 41 tests is a hard record to ignore, even if big Jules started the season out of shape. North's 27 in 60 is off the pace and he's not the player he was in terms of looking for work and creating space (at least in a Wales game plan). We might take a close look at your props, as Woodcock leaves a bit of a gap.

[Mellsblue]

Wales will lose 3-0 and our dirt trackers will lose both the regional games. We're pretty average at the moment and will have no answer to the Blacks' pack. Man for man, your backs are better in every position and maybe only George North would be considered for selection if he were a New Zealander. Even then you have plenty of options in his position, most of whom are as good or better than he is at the moment. Having said all that, I'm looking forward to the tests, just to see if we can get close for a while.

There's only 1 midweek match, v the Chiefs between the 1st and 2nd tests.

We've got a lot of guys lining up for the back 3. Assuming we keep playing 1 big winger and 2 wing/fullback type players, with a utility on the bench, North would need to oust Julian "the Bus" Savea to have a look in (not to mention Waisake Naholo). 38 tries in 41 tests is a hard record to ignore, even if big Jules started the season out of shape. North's 27 in 60 is off the pace and he's not the player he was in terms of looking for work and creating space (at least in a Wales game plan). We might take a close look at your props, as Woodcock leaves a bit of a gap.

Not sure tries per match is a fair comparison. Tries per player's possession of the ball would be a better comparison. I've had a quick look for the stats, and I can't vouch for their accuracy, but on the WMB it is claimed North scores two tries for every possession of the ball. This, scarily, is the same as Cuthbert's knock-on per possession stats.

[Lizard]

That's not bad, but it seems North is still not up with Shane who, as I recall it from WMB boards past, could score tries regardless of possession simply by being named in the XV.

[cashead]

Hell, he'd basically scored about 8 tries in the time between him being named and kick-off.

[morepork]

Shane Williams makes all the ladies in the first 20 rows pregnant every time he touches his balls.

[J Dory]

Do you think we can entice HWNTW back for the match day thread?

[zer0]

If we all haka really hard, and truly believe, then he just might appear.

Or the fat f*ck will keep ranting about bungalows in some rural English pub.

[morepork]

You make him sound like Uncle Monty.