Premiership run-in

[Puja]

Run-in:

Bristol 76 points:
Sale (A)
Leicester (A)
Irish (H)

Exeter 68 points:
Newcastle (H)
Saints (A)
Sale (H)

Sale 64 points:
Bristol (H)
Quins (H)
Exeter (A)

Harlequins 61 points:
Bath (H)
Sale (A)
Newcastle (H)

Northampton 50 points:
Wasps (H)
Exeter (H)
Bath (A)

Leicester 44 points:
Worcester (A)
Bristol (H)
Wasps (A)

Irish 43 points:
Glaws (A)
Wasps (H)
Bristol (A)

Wasps 42 points:
Saints (A)
Irish (A)
Leicester (H)

Bath 42 points:
Quins (A)
Glaws (A)
Saints (H)

Newcastle 39 points:
Exeter (A)
Worcester (H)
Quins (A)

Gloucester 36 points:
Irish (H)
Bath (H)
Worcester (A)

Worcester 22 points:
Leicester (H)
Newcastle (A)
Glaws (H)

[Puja]

What a run-in for Sale - the rest of the top four in their final three games!

The race for the top 4 is pretty much decided (bar Quins losing three in a row and Saints winning three in a row, probably with bonus points) and it's not inconceivable that the home semis could be all settled bar the shouting at the end of the next round (Bristol and Exeter both win). The big battle is in the midfield with 6th to 10th separated by just 5 points and only the top 8 getting into the top European competition next year. Could come down to whether some of the top 4 teams decide to rotate in their last few games.

From a Leicester perspective, you'd say the Worcester game is an absolute must-win if we want top 6. Frustrating - if we'd closed out winning positions against Saints and Bath, we'd be practically free and clear by this point. Guess we'll see how many fit bodies we have left after Friday night!

Puja

[16th man]

Saints losing did Sale a huge favour given the run in.

Sanderson can now choose if he wants to try to win games to fight for an unlikely 2nd place or rotate to keep players fresher for the play offs

[Scrumhead]

From a Quins POV, the pay offs are almost confirmed and third is still a reasonable possibility.

It creates a few dilemmas for us. It’s too risky to assume we’ve made it and rotate too much and I also think that form is important and I think we need to go in to the play-offs flying. However, Evans’ injury the suspensions for Brown and Esterhuizen have been major blows and have highlighted how paper thin our squad is. Another injury or suspension to one of our key players would really scupper us so I’d be inclined to rotate the squad out of caution.

If we get to the play-offs, I think we could cause an upset and TBH, I’d be tempted to look at what the odds are for a Sale vs. Quins final for a cheeky bet. Bristol and Exeter have more experience of winning things in recent times but in the play off format, Sale and Quins are the type of sides that could spring a surprise.

[Magic_sponge]

From a Quins POV, the pay offs are almost confirmed and third is still a reasonable possibility.

It creates a few dilemmas for us. It’s too risky to assume we’ve made it and rotate too much and I also think that form is important and I think we need to go in to the play-offs flying. However, Evans’ injury the suspensions for Brown and Esterhuizen have been major blows and have highlighted how paper thin our squad is. Another injury or suspension to one of our key players would really scupper us so I’d be inclined to rotate the squad out of caution.

If we get to the play-offs, I think we could cause an upset and TBH, I’d be tempted to look at what the odds are for a Sale vs. Quins final for a cheeky bet. Bristol and Exeter have more experience of winning things in recent times but in the play off format, Sale and Quins are the type of sides that could spring a surprise.

Do you think there's much benefit in pushing hard for third? Want to avoid Bristol, sure, but not much better getting Exeter! Probably better off securing playoffs then just making sure we're optimising fitness and selection for the semis. I'd rather play Bristol with 100% ready Smith than Exeter with him injured, suspended, or not suitably rested...

[TheNomad]

What a weird table this year.

6 to 11 is fairly tight, with some incredibly patchy form by everyone within it. London Irish above some teams with demonstrably better squads. All quite fun really.

And Bath. Bath...

I've been trying to figure out where it goes wrong in that team? I'm not a bath fan, so I ask objectively only, but the front row, the back row, the back three and the centres should all be top class. Genuinely international class.

So are the half backs and locks really that bad? Not on paper they're not. I don't really get it. Hooper is doing a hilariously bad job there

[fivepointer]

Top four is pretty much set. There might be a positional change but the sides competing in the play offs wont change.
Bottom place is clear too. I do hope Wuss win one of their remaining games.
Its the battle for top eight where things get interesting. I wouldnt rule out Glos at this stage. They have three winnable games, two of them at home.

[Raggs]

All 3 of Wasps games are against teams also fighting for top 8 positions.

Kinda wish we hadn't lost so many games in the final few minutes , had we held on, we'd be fighting top 4 right now.

[Gloskarlos]

I'm actually semi confident Glos can make 8th. If Tigers beat Montpellier how does that affect the top 8 qualifying for Europe?

[Puja]

I'm actually semi confident Glos can make 8th. If Tigers beat Montpellier how does that affect the top 8 qualifying for Europe?

Excellent question; not a clue. One would assume that it would only affect it if Tigers finished <8th as I think the idea is 8 from each league.

I'm hoping your lot do have a late season run - you're playing most of our rivals!

Puja

[Peej]

Wasps may struggle to pick up another win, to be honest. Gloucester hitting a bit of form, Irish always quite strong, and then Leicester probably looking to finish the league strongly.

[16th man]

With De Jaeger and Manu fit, and having shown already that they can beat up the Bristol pack, you'd think Sale had a chance of making the final.

But with crowds back in, home advantage becomes a much bigger thing again, as demonstrated by the craven performance of the ref of Brighton vs Man City.

[Puja]

Wasps may struggle to pick up another win, to be honest. Gloucester hitting a bit of form, Irish always quite strong, and then Leicester probably looking to finish the league strongly.

Their next game is Saints, not Gloucester, which you'd've thought they stood a chance with on Northampton's recent form.

Puja

[jimKRFC]

With De Jaeger and Manu fit, and having shown already that they can beat up the Bristol pack, you'd think Sale had a chance of making the final.

"beating up" is stretching (quite a long way) the case... Bristol failed to manage the Sale rush defence and Sale got a couple of against the run of play tries. Hopefully Bristol are a little better at managing this type of defence now. We also had a bunch of key players missing that are now back:

Unavailable: Kyle Sinckler, Ben Earl, Callum Sheedy, Max Malins, Semi Radradra, Luke Morahan.

[Peej]

Wasps may struggle to pick up another win, to be honest. Gloucester hitting a bit of form, Irish always quite strong, and then Leicester probably looking to finish the league strongly.

Their next game is Saints, not Gloucester, which you'd've thought they stood a chance with on Northampton's recent form.

Puja

Maybe. But Saints at the Gardens with fans back in? Think that could swing it. And Wasps form seems to vary wildly between being utterly terrible and being sublime ball in hand but unable to defend and close out games.

[Puja]

Glaws do the rest of the midfield a favour by beating Irish (and keeping them to one bonus point) and the 5 points brings them right back into the hunt for top 8 (and possibly top 6 if results go their way).

Puja

[Scrumhead]

Sale looked ominously good. A great defence and flashes of what they can do in attack. Tuilagi and Ben Curry coming back at just the right time.

Quirke looks electric whenever he plays and James Harper looks like a great prospect who’s come out of nowhere.

[fivepointer]

Glos-Bath has been called off as covid outbreak at Glos. Presumably Bath get the 4pts?

[Spiffy]

Sale looked ominously good. A great defence and flashes of what they can do in attack. Tuilagi and Ben Curry coming back at just the right time.

Quirke looks electric whenever he plays and James Harper looks like a great prospect who’s come out of nowhere.

With a name like Quirke he must have Irish connections - wonder how far back?

(Trivia : Scrum half Johnny Quirke was selected by Ireland against England at Twickenham in 1962, aged 17. Ireland's youngest ever SH. There were 9 new caps in the team who were thumped in a game orchestrated by Richard Sharp. It was also Willie John McBride's first cap.)

[Puja]

Hands off Quirke, thank you very much.

Updated run-in*:

Bristol 76 points:
Leicester (A)
Irish (H)

Exeter 73 points:
Saints (A)
Sale (H)

Sale 68 points:
Quins (H)
Exeter (A)

Harlequins 66 points:
Sale (A)
Newcastle (H)

Northampton 54 points:
Exeter (H)
Bath (A)

Leicester 48 points:
Bristol (H)
Wasps (A)

Bath 47 points:
Saints (H)

Irish 44 points:
Wasps (H)
Bristol (A)

Wasps 43 points:
Irish (A)
Leicester (H)

Gloucester 43 points:
Worcester (A)

Newcastle 39 points:
Worcester (H)
Quins (A)

Worcester 23 points:
Newcastle (A)
Glaws (H)

*Assuming Glaws vs Bath is treated like every other Covided game.

Puja

[Puja]

So, due to all their rivals losing last week and Glaws getting a Covid 2 points from Bath, Leicester now are guaranteed to finish 9th or higher (Glaws can get 48 points, but they have fewer victories) so Borthwick has already surpassed last year. Need a minimum of one more win (potentially just a bonus point depending on other results) to confirm 8th place Europe, but the best case scenario is that this weekend we shock Bristol while Irish and Wasps have a 3-3 draw - that'd leave us guaranteed of 6th with one game spare to try and hunt down Saints for 5th.

Puja

[Puja]

And so, it has come to this:

Bristol 81 points:
Irish (H)

Exeter 73 points:
Saints (A)
Sale (H)

Sale 73 points:
Exeter (A)

Harlequins 66 points:
Newcastle (H)

Northampton 54 points:
Exeter (H)
Bath (A)

Leicester 49 points:
Wasps (A)

Wasps 48 points:
Leicester (H)

Bath 47 points:
Saints (H)

Irish 46 points:
Bristol (A)

Newcastle 44 points:
Quins (A)

Gloucester 43 points:
Worcester (A)

Worcester 23 points:
Glaws (H)

[Puja]

Any team from 11th upwards can qualify for Europe on the final weekend. That's fun! Reminder that the first divider of teams on equal points is number of victories (then points difference): Leicester 10, Wasps/Bath/Falcons 9, Glaws 7, and Irish an impressive 6 and flaunting their bonus points.

Leicester are in the box seat, as they can only be overtaken by 3 teams and would have to be overtaken by all three to miss out (technically if Newcastle win with a bonus and improve their points difference vs Leicester by 79 points they can, but practically no). If they win or draw with Wasps they're fine or if one of Bath or Irish lose (Saints A and Bristol A respectively) or if Irish don't get 4 more match points than them (so Leicester bonus point would require a 5 point Irish victory, two Leicester bonus points would guarantee (might be worth sending a few players to lick COVID wards to guarantee?)).

Wasps need a victory against Leicester to guarantee. Anything less leaves them open to being overtaken by Bath and Irish to fall to 9th. Could theoretically get overtaken by Newcastle (Quins A) as well to finish 10th, although I suspect that would depend on Quins giving their big names another week off.

Bath also have their destiny in their own hands - any win against Saints at home will confirm, even if Irish get a bonus point against a possibly rotating Bristol. A loss means they would need Irish and Falcons to lose as well.

Irish need to hope Bristol rotate hard. Away at Ashton Gate, against a team potentially fighting for top spot (and thus avoiding Sale) - they'll be cheering for Saints tomorrow to make the last game meaningless for Briz. They could finish 6th if results go their way. They could also finish 11th. They're not helped by having the lowest win total of any of the runners and riders, meaning that they will lose any draws on points. Their best hope next week is to win vs Bristol and hope for a Leicester win, a Saints win, or a Wasps win by >7 points.

Newcastle still have the dream alive after beating Worcester. They could reach 7th with a bonus point win over Quins and all other results going their way, but it's a long shot. Need a win of any kind and losses for both Bath and Irish (or a big loss for Wasps - 22 points difference between them and need Wasps not to get a bonus point).

Gloucester are the longest of the long shots and can only finish as high as 8th. They need a bonus point win over Worcester (not impossible), and then for Bath to get zero match points, Irish to get no more than 2, and Newcastle to not win (slightly longer odds, but not an impossible accumulator).

Puja

[16th man]

Result at Saints probably means a Sale 2nds and injury returnees going to Sandy Park next week.

[fivepointer]

Pretty sure Exeter will stand down a few regular starters too.