Ban Petrol and Diesel Cars or I will not face the apocalypse in a Prius

[Zhivago]

Wouldn't it be a great idea to simply ban sales of petrol and diesel cars?

[gthedog]

No

Next?

[Dacre]

Wouldn't it be a great idea to simply ban sales of petrol and diesel cars?

How would you get to the pub?

[morepork]

There is no way I am driving a leccy hairdrier through the snow.

[Zhivago]

Gotcha, not my idea

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... an-by-2025

[onlynameleft]

It's not altogether clear whether they are looking to ban sales of diesel and petrol which is one thing or also to insist that any new cars are electric which is something entirely different. I doubt anyone really has a handle on where things will be as regards alternative propulsion in 40 or 50 years' time, hydrogen for example is in its infancy but may be a better bet long term. Does the proposed ban apply to hybrids? It's like committing to Betamax to the exclusion of all else.

[UKHamlet]

The internal combustion engine as a mobile unit is in its death throes. It's only a matter of time before it gets booted... Oh, and a few technological advances.

[onlynameleft]

The internal combustion engine as a mobile unit is in its death throes. It's only a matter of time before it gets booted... Oh, and a few technological advances.

I agree as it happens I'm just stuck on the fence about whether electric is the answer. It is telling that the Netherlands doesn't have much of a motor industry though. Donkervoort and Spyker probably employ a few hundred between them if that (and neither make their own engines). DAF trucks was Dutch but is now American owned and they are mainly built in Brazil these days. Can't see the likes of Germany, Korea and Japan following suit.

[OptimisticJock]

Wouldn't it be a great idea to simply ban sales of petrol and diesel cars?

Fuck aye. Who wants a policeman, paramedic or doctor to get to a scene no more than 3 miles away really slowly?

[Sandydragon]

Too soon. Electric cars are advanced enough yet and hybrids still require some kind of fuel. You also have to wonder where the electricity to charge them will be coming from given how close to the edge our power production already is.

Hydrogen looks interesting for the future. Perhaps in 10 years when there is an alternative, which has good range and doesn't mean re-mortgaging your home to buy then I'd agree with more drastic measures to get polluting vehicles off the road. At the moment, for much of the country there just isn't an alternative.

[Zhivago]

Too soon. Electric cars are advanced enough yet and hybrids still require some kind of fuel. You also have to wonder where the electricity to charge them will be coming from given how close to the edge our power production already is.

Hydrogen looks interesting for the future. Perhaps in 10 years when there is an alternative, which has good range and doesn't mean re-mortgaging your home to buy then I'd agree with more drastic measures to get polluting vehicles off the road. At the moment, for much of the country there just isn't an alternative.

Ban is from 2025... read the article

[canta_brian]

Doesn't every other Dutchman spend the entire summer towing a carravan around the smaller highways of Europe? Can't see them changing to electric all that fast.

Might drive people to change their old bangers for a newer internal combustion car over the next few years to see them into the future a bit so it could be a fiscal stimulus for the standard car market. Can always cross a border to fill them up on the continent. I would be looking at selling my petrol stations soonish if I was a shell franchisee that's for sure.

[onlynameleft]

Too soon. Electric cars are advanced enough yet and hybrids still require some kind of fuel. You also have to wonder where the electricity to charge them will be coming from given how close to the edge our power production already is.

Hydrogen looks interesting for the future. Perhaps in 10 years when there is an alternative, which has good range and doesn't mean re-mortgaging your home to buy then I'd agree with more drastic measures to get polluting vehicles off the road. At the moment, for much of the country there just isn't an alternative.

Ban is from 2025... read the article

That's not the question. The question is whether now is the time to commit to electricity instead of other alternative methods of propulsion which seems to me to be what the article is saying the Dutch hope to do. They are also seeking to commit to a ban now regardless of when it starts, hence, without wishing to put words in Sandy's mouth, the too soon comment.

[onlynameleft]

Doesn't every other Dutchman spend the entire summer towing a carravan around the smaller highways of Europe? Can't see them changing to electric all that fast.

Might drive people to change their old bangers for a newer internal combustion car over the next few years to see them into the future a bit so it could be a fiscal stimulus for the standard car market. Can always cross a border to fill them up on the continent. I would be looking at selling my petrol stations soonish if I was a shell franchisee that's for sure.

There was a car scrappage scheme here a few years back, guaranteed sum for your old banger. It had a very positive effect on sales of smaller and (on the whole) less polluting cars although, as I recall, even Porsche sold 10 new ones under the scheme.

[Numbers]

The new Tesla does 0-60 in under 6 seconds.

[Stones of granite]

For a country that already imports 15% of its electricity, and uses fossil fuels to generate 83% of what it generates itself, this doesn't seem like the most coherent idea anyone ever had.

[Sandydragon]

Too soon. Electric cars are advanced enough yet and hybrids still require some kind of fuel. You also have to wonder where the electricity to charge them will be coming from given how close to the edge our power production already is.

Hydrogen looks interesting for the future. Perhaps in 10 years when there is an alternative, which has good range and doesn't mean re-mortgaging your home to buy then I'd agree with more drastic measures to get polluting vehicles off the road. At the moment, for much of the country there just isn't an alternative.

Ban is from 2025... read the article

If new tech is any good by then, big if, then fine. Otherwise still too soon.

[Sandydragon]

Too soon. Electric cars are advanced enough yet and hybrids still require some kind of fuel. You also have to wonder where the electricity to charge them will be coming from given how close to the edge our power production already is.

Hydrogen looks interesting for the future. Perhaps in 10 years when there is an alternative, which has good range and doesn't mean re-mortgaging your home to buy then I'd agree with more drastic measures to get polluting vehicles off the road. At the moment, for much of the country there just isn't an alternative.

Ban is from 2025... read the article

That's not the question. The question is whether now is the time to commit to electricity instead of other alternative methods of propulsion which seems to me to be what the article is saying the Dutch hope to do. They are also seeking to commit to a ban now regardless of when it starts, hence, without wishing to put words in Sandy's mouth, the too soon comment.

Quite. You commit to a ban once you have a proven and affordable solution. Even then you need to give a reasonable amount of time to allow for people to adjust.

[Sandydragon]

Doesn't every other Dutchman spend the entire summer towing a carravan around the smaller highways of Europe? Can't see them changing to electric all that fast.

Might drive people to change their old bangers for a newer internal combustion car over the next few years to see them into the future a bit so it could be a fiscal stimulus for the standard car market. Can always cross a border to fill them up on the continent. I would be looking at selling my petrol stations soonish if I was a shell franchisee that's for sure.

There was a car scrappage scheme here a few years back, guaranteed sum for your old banger. It had a very positive effect on sales of smaller and (on the whole) less polluting cars although, as I recall, even Porsche sold 10 new ones under the scheme.

I'd prefer this approach to a ban, at least at first.

[onlynameleft]

The new Tesla does 0-60 in under 6 seconds.

Range is the real day to day issue with electric though isn't it? There's no doubt electric power produces tremendous acceleration because the engines produce maximum torque from zero revs. This is the main reason cars like La Ferrari and Porsche 918 use hybrid power, it's not about fuel economy.
Besides, the electricity still has to be produced somewhere, quite often in a polluting coal fired power station. And of course disposing of the batteries at the end of their life.
Hydrogen looks promising. Just needs some infrastructure.

[Stones of granite]

The new Tesla does 0-60 in under 6 seconds.

Range is the real day to day issue with electric though isn't it? There's no doubt electric power produces tremendous acceleration because the engines produce maximum torque from zero revs. This is the main reason cars like La Ferrari and Porsche 918 use hybrid power, it's not about fuel economy.
Besides, the electricity still has to be produced somewhere, quite often in a polluting coal fired power station. And of course disposing of the batteries at the end of their life.
Hydrogen looks promising. Just needs some infrastructure.

Not just disposing of batteries. There's a race on right now to secure access to Lithium, and it's about the only commodity that is rapidly rising in price. Volume production is meant to bring down the price of batteries, but it won't if Lithium supply can't keep up with demand.

[Sandydragon]

The new Tesla does 0-60 in under 6 seconds.

Range is the real day to day issue with electric though isn't it? There's no doubt electric power produces tremendous acceleration because the engines produce maximum torque from zero revs. This is the main reason cars like La Ferrari and Porsche 918 use hybrid power, it's not about fuel economy.
Besides, the electricity still has to be produced somewhere, quite often in a polluting coal fired power station. And of course disposing of the batteries at the end of their life.
Hydrogen looks promising. Just needs some infrastructure.

This.

The issues around recharge points can be overcome in time, but unless you are just driving around town, you need some greater range. The idea of sitting in a service station for 6 hours or more whilst my battery recharges isn't appealing.

For an alternative power source to be effective, and embraced by users, it needs to be as quick and easy (or at least close) to refill as it currently is.

[Stones of granite]

The internal combustion engine as a mobile unit is in its death throes. It's only a matter of time before it gets booted... Oh, and a few technological advances.

I doubt that we're even at the peak of internal combustion engine use, never mind close to the death throes.

[J Dory]

I'm not sure I'm emotionally ready to give up petrol power. I still have cars and bikes I dream of buying and vroomming about on. Battery just doesn't hold the same appeal.

[Donny osmond]

The new Tesla does 0-60 in under 6 seconds.

found a great article on Tesla and new model auto companies versus Ford and the, ahem, 'establishment'

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/What ... 83375.html


first couple of paragraphs below. it would seem that demand for electric cars is ready to fund their development. add in big players with cash to burn on development, like apple and tesla, and you might be forgiven for thinking that new manufacturers pushing electric cars could over turn the established big players who're still pushing petrol and diesel.

Two interesting events took place this month. Tesla announced its Model 3, a relatively affordable electric car, and it attracted around 180K preorders on the same day. That was before the company actually revealed the car. There were more than 250K preorders in the first 36 hours. Oh, and the run rate is about 1,500 per hour of preorders for this car right now.

To be clear, that means a huge number of people now have deposits down on a car they likely won't get until late next year.

Ford opened preorders for its new Ford GT, and only 500 people actually will get to buy this US$400K car -- and as of right now, you still can order one of those 500. There have been no lines for this arguably even more amazing car.

It likely cost more to develop the Ford GT than it did to develop the Model 3, and assuming it sells them all, Ford will make a total of around $200M. By the time it ships the Model 3, Tesla should have at least 500K preorders at an average price of around $40K each. That's about $20B in revenue.