RugbyRebels

Hey buttasses, Hansen is going to announce his first squad this weekend. Get yer predictions in, jerks.

There will be 31 spots open, so make your calls. Edit: Apparently it's 32.


Hooker:
Dane Coles
Codie Taylor
Nathan Harris, Hika Elliot or James Parsons

Harris would be the promising young prospect, but Elliot and Parsons will both bring leadership and experience in a squad that has just lost literally hundreds of test caps. Coles and Taylor are probably locked in at this stage.


Props
Wyatt Crockett
Joe Moody
Owen Franks
Charlie Faumuina
Jeffery Toomaga-Allen or Ofa Tu'ungafasi

With the ill-timed injuries to Pauliasi Manu and Nepo Laulala, and the relative good form of these players, it's fairly unlikely there will be any new caps. I'm leaning towards Toomaga-Allen as the prospect picked, or Tu'ungafasi. Toomaga-Allen has the form, while Tu'ungafasi has improved dramatically after shifting back to his more natural tighthead spot.

Locks
Brodie Retallick
Sam Whitelock
Luke Romano
Blade Thomson

Thomson appeals as the natural lock/loose forward cover, as he can play in the second row, and 6/8, which frees up a fair few selection options.

Loose Forwards
Jerome Kaino
Sam Cane
Ardie Savea
Elliot Dixon
Kieran Read (C)

Dixon's long-term form demands selection, and he is more comfortable at 6 than Vito was. With Read's elevation to the captaincy, a reserve out-and-out 8 is not really required, and the preference will probably lie with blindsides that can cover at 8 instead, like Kaino or Dixon.


Halfback
Aaron Smith
TJ Perenara
Brad Weber

Simple form selection. Smith is streets ahead, Perenara has the experience and deserves a chance, and Weber is in irresistable form at the moment.


Five-Eighth
Aaron Cruden
Beauden Barrett
Lima Sopoaga

Select themselves, really. Mo'unga is probably not too far off either.


Midfield
Charlie Ngatai
Ryan Crotty
Malakai Fekitoa
George Moala

Pretty sure what the midfield sans-SBW will look like. Crotty brings stability and leadership, Fekitoa has the experience and is improving rapidly, Ngatai has leadership experience and form, while Moala has shifted comfortably into 13 from 12, and is one of the better performing midfielders at the moment.


Back Three
Julian Savea
Waisake Naholo
James Lowe
Ben Smith
Damien McKenzie

With so many departures and injuries, it's fairly likely that Hansen will plump for the tried and true, in Savea, Naholo and Smith. Lowe and McKenzie can't be ignored at the moment.


Possible surprise selections:
Matt Faddes
Tevita Li
Jason Woodward

Faddes has been in excellent form this season, and has more-or-less taken out a mortgage on the 13 jersey with the Highlanders, while Li has been a bright spot in a Blues team that has improved considerably on last year - not that it was a high bar, while Jason Woodward, of whom Wayne Smith is reportedly a big fan, has benefited from an extended run at the Hurricanes after an injury ruined his 2015 season. If they miss selection now, there is a fair chance they will be seen in October/November.

I'm not going to predict, just haven't seen enough super rugby this year.

Would be interested to hear who everyone would pick as the starting 10?

Surely an embarrassment of riches right now, given the form of the Kiwi franchises in Super Rugby - Aucks' mediocrity notwithstanding.

Ok. I will answer my own question. I would like to see Sopoaga get the start. The new Carter? Real game reader

J Dory wrote:Ok. I will answer my own question. I would like to see Sopoaga get the start. The new Carter? Real game reader

I'd choose Barritt on the basis that goal kicking is unlikely to be the difference between winning and losing and also because I'd be very tempted to pick mcKenzie either at full back or on the wing

I'd also go Sopoaga. Whether or not goal-kicking ends up being the deciding factor in this series against Wales, it is crucial in plenty of test matches. Barrett just isn't kicking well enough to be a test match 10. Sopoaga is kicking the best of the NZ 10s, and he's good enough with ball in hand. Worthy of being given the first shot at claiming the jersey anyway, imo.

The ugly conservative head of opinion at 1st five rises.

But seriously, it shows how good Carter was/is in that he ticked both boxes. Soft hands and solid boot.


I like Barret because he runs fast and is smart. The Zen of coaching will be to accomplish keeping both Barret and Sopoaga in the mix. The judicious use of either or will be determined by what the looses are doing and what is outside him.

Sincerely,


Expat Yoda.

Sopo's no stodge though. He's doing a good job running the Highlander's backline, aided by Smith of course, and his running game's not bad. It annoys me that Barrett's not kicking better. He needs to go a bit Aspberger's and spend a summer with a kicking tee.

There's not a clear-cut answer to who "should" get picked at 10, which is what makes speculating interesting, I guess.

The thing with 10 is that they all have very strong cases. I do also wonder how good Richie Mo'unga can be after a couple of seasons.

cashead wrote:The thing with 10 is that they all have very strong cases. I do also wonder how good Richie Mo'unga can be after a couple of seasons.

Worry about that after a couple of seasons. Right now he seems some way behind the others.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

cashead wrote:The thing with 10 is that they all have very strong cases. I do also wonder how good Richie Mo'unga can be after a couple of seasons.

Worry about that after a couple of seasons. Right now he seems some way behind the others.

Probably has something to do with the fact that this is entirely his first season at this level. He's certainly well ahead of where Cruden and Sopoaga were in their respective first seasons.

How has Barret's kicking from hand been? Do we have anyone not wearing 10 who could kick the goals? If john Eals can do a job from lock I don't see why we have to worry about goal kicking solely as a skill for a 1st 5.

Chances of a Welsh upset in the first test? Generally when we are at our creakiest.

Second test on will be spankings.

Looking forward to seeing Dixon in action properly.

The Welsh have never got within 20 points of the All Blacks in NZ.

Zero

canta_brian wrote:How has Barret's kicking from hand been? Do we have anyone not wearing 10 who could kick the goals? If john Eals can do a job from lock I don't see why we have to worry about goal kicking solely as a skill for a 1st 5.

Barrett's goalkicking this season has been spotty, particularly in recent weeks. He tends to start games doing the kicking duties, but has finished most of them with Jason Woodward taking over.

Sopoaga is cool, cool under fire and a thinker. It's his game management and selflessness that makes him stand out to me. He's also got some skills.

Basic goal kicking stats for those interested:

1. Lima Sopoaga: 39/52 = 75%
2. Damian McKenzie: 37/53 = 70%
3. Ihaia West: 39/54 = 69%
4. Richie Mo’unga: 39/58 = 67%
5. Beauden Barrett: 41/66 = 62%
6. Aaron Cruden: 7/14 = 50%

Also...

zer0 wrote:Basic goal kicking stats for those interested:

1. Lima Sopoaga: 39/52 = 75%
2. Damian McKenzie: 37/53 = 70%
3. Ihaia West: 39/54 = 69%
4. Richie Mo’unga: 39/58 = 67%
5. Beauden Barrett: 41/66 = 62%
6. Aaron Cruden: 7/14 = 50%

That's all surprisingly low.