Knee-jerk team selection for Wales

[Mikey Brown]

Certain I posted this, but either I’ve gone blind or it’s lost in the ether.

Can’t be arsed to write it again properly so…

Wales will be coming for us
Tombola time?
Less shit/passive locks? Samuels?
Rowe good
Ritchie good
5:3
Dempsey and Jordan bench impact?
Something else at 9/21
Staff/Redpath in at 12 or is Jordan finding his feet at 12?

Thoughts?

[Big D]

Would have Henderson start. Maybe change at LHP and bench hooker.

Backs didn't really do a lot wrong.

[BaldiePete]

I prefer a 5:3 bench, which would allow Horne to get a place. I’d like him to start but definitely on the bench. It’s perhaps unfair on Rowe who had a good game but if Graham is fit I’d like him to start with Rowe on the bench. Other backs should stay the same. In the forwards, there needs to be a change in the 2nd row. I don’t see both being changed, so keep Gilchrist for his lineout work and play either Brown or Henderson. Front row, give Bhatti a start, Schoeman to bench.

Actually, I’d say there’s no chance of Townsend doing all that, other than perhaps a 5:3 split. We lost by one point away from home, with missed kicks making the difference in the end. Assuming the players are all fit, there will be minimal changes.

[septic 9]

Damien Penaud would walk into just about team, national or club , anywhere. He was dropped for France's game today. Its wasn't to develop another player, it was poor performance against England.
Toonie needs to have some of Galthie's porridge.
We don't have that many options in the pack, but time for Schoeman to get a rest. Ditto Gray, ditto Ashman.

Start Bhatti, or Sutherland if fit or swap the pair re start or bench. If Sutherland still iffy, bring in McBeth.
I'd rather start Brown which would give us carrying and energy we don't get from Gray, it would also augment the backrow where only one is a big carrier. Skinner bench again
Afraid need to stick with Cherry for this 6N, I'd rather see Harrison or even Mathews, Fraser even Stewart than Ashman until he screws the nut
The backs are fine, wouldn't change them unless there is an injury or we go to an unlikely 5/3

[switchskier]

Graham is just better than Rowe and looked lively until the injury. He's one of the first names on the team sheet for me.

Would have started McDowall against England so I'm sticking to my guns. Like him against any of the Welsh options.

Wales' front five isn't anything to be scared of. Would rather give Henderson a go there than against France. Don't think that Skinner has done enough off the bench at any point to demand a start. Like Brown on the bench as he offers lock/flanker option depending on how the game is going. As a wildcard - if Williamson/Samuel aren't fit how about Oguntibeju off the bench to offer some size? I'd hate to see him coming on against a tired scrum at 60 minutes.

Ritchie has done enough to keep the shirt. Morgan is Wales best player so I like the two open side approach.

I miss Turner. Cherry is game and I have huge admiration but Turner just carried and hit harder. Agree Ashman isn't earning his slot atm. Happy for any of the other options to get time.

[Cameo]

Graham is just better than Rowe and looked lively until the injury. He's one of the first names on the team sheet for me.

Would have started McDowall against England so I'm sticking to my guns. Like him against any of the Welsh options.

Wales' front five isn't anything to be scared of. Would rather give Henderson a go there than against France. Don't think that Skinner has done enough off the bench at any point to demand a start. Like Brown on the bench as he offers lock/flanker option depending on how the game is going. As a wildcard - if Williamson/Samuel aren't fit how about Oguntibeju off the bench to offer some size? I'd hate to see him coming on against a tired scrum at 60 minutes.

Ritchie has done enough to keep the shirt. Morgan is Wales best player so I like the two open side approach.

I miss Turner. Cherry is game and I have huge admiration but Turner just carried and hit harder. Agree Ashman isn't earning his slot atm. Happy for any of the other options to get time.

Sounds about right. It'd be nice to bring in two or three powerful forwards, but we just don't have them.

The comments after the England game that we look so dangerous from phases 1 to 3 but then decreasingly so are on point. Our forward carries don't either make ground or suck many in. Until personel change, we will just need to try to be a bit clever with late shift or offloads (or do things like try and set up mauls in open play) or use some of our backs as strike runners in the middle when it is not on outside. I don't think Oguntibeju is ready but would be tempted to try it off the bench (though probably more sensible in the summer when he has had a few more games).

It'll help that we'll have a game to analyse with Wales under their new coach.

[Mikey Brown]

Their scrum had Ireland in plenty of trouble, though I don't know if that was just the young Irish tight-head struggling.

Jare looks a handful but a long way off. We really don't have anyone else fit? Doesn't seem like GT fancies Henderson at all. Is Cummings confirmed as out for the whole tournament?

Turner is obviously a huge loss but I've got to say I'm loving having a more reliable lineout. The ability to run more strike plays off lineouts is easily worth the extra oomph you get from Ashman, for me. Right now at least. Richardson can push for that wrecking ball role off the bench and hopefully one of them can match Cherry's lineout security sooner rather than later.

[septic 9]

the Cherry/Gilchrist/Richie lineout combination is/was key. Still a bit too much movement complicating things, but they work well as a combination.
While its easy to see why we will stick with them v Wales, they are really short answers to a bigger problem.
Toonie isn't daft despite many comments on the tinterweb. So des he stick or twist? Does he stick with experience and hope to beat Wales (should do) and tough it out in Paris.
Or does he twist, experiment with eg Henderson and/or Brown, risk losing to Wales and getting Italianed in Paris?

Who'd be a head coach eh?

[Mikey Brown]

the Cherry/Gilchrist/Richie lineout combination is/was key. Still a bit too much movement complicating things, but they work well as a combination.
While its easy to see why we will stick with them v Wales, they are really short answers to a bigger problem.
Toonie isn't daft despite many comments on the tinterweb. So des he stick or twist? Does he stick with experience and hope to beat Wales (should do) and tough it out in Paris.
Or does he twist, experiment with eg Henderson and/or Brown, risk losing to Wales and getting Italianed in Paris?

Who'd be a head coach eh?

Are we being too harsh on Jonny Gray? Is he getting through some valuable sort of unseen work? Because currently I wouldn't view dropping him for any other lock in the squad as much of a risk. It looks like when you see the 'former international legends' sorts of game and you've got 45 year old guys plodding around the field. He's been one of my favourites for Scotland over the years but it feels like 10 years of hitting 200 tackles/rucks a game has worn him down to a nub.

I'd love to have been in a position to move on from Gilchrist but he's far too key. In an ideal world you've got both power and dynamism to go along with the set-piece expertise, but I think we'll have to settle for someone a bit more dynamic alongside old man Grant. Brown looks handy enough. He's certainly got a bit more energy about him.

[septic 9]

the Cherry/Gilchrist/Richie lineout combination is/was key. Still a bit too much movement complicating things, but they work well as a combination.
While its easy to see why we will stick with them v Wales, they are really short answers to a bigger problem.
Toonie isn't daft despite many comments on the tinterweb. So des he stick or twist? Does he stick with experience and hope to beat Wales (should do) and tough it out in Paris.
Or does he twist, experiment with eg Henderson and/or Brown, risk losing to Wales and getting Italianed in Paris?

Who'd be a head coach eh?

Are we being too harsh on Jonny Gray? Is he getting through some valuable sort of unseen work? Because currently I wouldn't view dropping him for any other lock in the squad as much of a risk. It looks like when you see the 'former international legends' sorts of game and you've got 45 year old guys plodding around the field. He's been one of my favourites for Scotland over the years but it feels like 10 years of hitting 200 tackles/rucks a game has worn him down to a nub.

I'd love to have been in a position to move on from Gilchrist but he's far too key. In an ideal world you've got both power and dynamism to go along with the set-piece expertise, but I think we'll have to settle for someone a bit more dynamic alongside old man Grant. Brown looks handy enough. He's certainly got a bit more energy about him.

Gray tackles and hits rucks, his line out is fine if not Gilchrist level, he scrums well enough, but his ball carrying is sub standard at club level never mind international. Couple that with a back row with one serious carrier and Gilco who is not a serious gain line carrier, and we have a huge problem.
We can just about carry Gray if eg we played Brown in the back row instead of Darge. Or played both Dempsey and Fagerson (plus Darge or RIchie - Richie's case weakens as Brown is a better lineout option as well)

Looking forward, we should have some serious lock options in Cummings, Williamson as first picks; plus Gilco, Skinner from the current squad - but can look at Oguntibeju and McVie at Edinburgh (assuming they dump their coach and play the lad), maybe Henderson, Johnson, Craig - all need to be considered for the summer stuff, but obv not all will/can go

[Mikey Brown]

Just realised I’ve been mixing up Samuels and Williamson. Williamson looked the part when he came on against SA. Is Samuels notably weaker or less of a prospect?

I’ll admit I’ve been aware of them and Brown/Ferrie etc for a while but not seen enough to clearly distinguish their talents. Ferrie looks very handy but is a pure 6 right? Are they all injured currently except Brown?

I still think Henderson has got something, but that’s probably more in the Gilchrist mould (with a lot more dynamism) than providing the ballast/tight stuff.

Cummings has quietly developed in to a very good lock. We’re really missing him.

I hope Jonny Gray can have a late career resurgence like his brother, but I just can’t see him being physically up to it. I don’t see much point continuing to pair him with Gilchrist for these last two games.

[septic 9]

Just realised I’ve been mixing up Samuels and Williamson. Williamson looked the part when he came on against SA. Is Samuels notably weaker or less of a prospect?

I’ll admit I’ve been aware of them and Brown/Ferrie etc for a while but not seen enough to clearly distinguish their talents. Ferrie looks very handy but is a pure 6 right? Are they all injured currently except Brown?

I still think Henderson has got something, but that’s probably more in the Gilchrist mould (with a lot more dynamism) than providing the ballast/tight stuff.

Cummings has quietly developed in to a very good lock. We’re really missing him.

I hope Jonny Gray can have a late career resurgence like his brother, but I just can’t see him being physically up to it. I don’t see much point continuing to pair him with Gilchrist for these last two games.

Samuels and Henderson have similarities and differences. Both are very tall, very god lineout. Like many a very tall locks, tend not carry, body height makes it harder for them to get low to use their bulk and easier for defenders to hit higher and hold up. I've seen more of Samuel than Henderson, currently Henderson maybe has a edge in carrying but Samuel is showing signs of improving. I think Samuel hits more rucks. He is also taller, heavier, 3 years younger and a captain at age group a year early. Neither convince me yet that they can be international locks.
Williamson is a different beast. Not quite so tall but a proper unit. Was obvious from his U20s that he was one to watch. He was manhandling opposition of any size and carrying hard, really hard, running on to balls at pace and breaking the gainline. he continues upwards.
Brown is just a ball of energy, whether carrying, tackling or hitting rucks. Ferrie is a proper all round grafting blindside, all round skillset but yet to show he can step up to next level. I saw Brown and Ferrie fighting a place in the Glasgow match 23s. Now expect to see both next season if not this. They are both what Smith calls "flocks" - hybrid lock/flanker. Both a bit short and light IMHO to be full time locks, yet Brown has done well there so far, while Ferrie was mainly a lock at age grades. Both could bulk up more but could lose dynamism as a consequence. TBF Ferrie is already a bit of a unit, I think both taller and heavier than Brown. Ferrie is fit, played lock for Glasgow v Connacht, and moved to lock (from 6) v Dragons when big Jare went off

[Mikey Brown]

Thanks for all that. Let’s hope at least a couple of them can push on.

I realise I completely forgot about Skinner while writing all that, which seems very easy to do these days. He looked so promising when he first came through but just doesn’t seem to offer all that much anymore. Is that just the effect of playing for Edinburgh?

I’m sure we had a couple of good pack performances with him and Gilchrist at lock together, but that feels like a long time ago now.

[septic 9]

Thanks for all that. Let’s hope at least a couple of them can push on.

I realise I completely forgot about Skinner while writing all that, which seems very easy to do these days. He looked so promising when he first came through but just doesn’t seem to offer all that much anymore. Is that just the effect of playing for Edinburgh?

I’m sure we had a couple of good pack performances with him and Gilchrist at lock together, but that feels like a long time ago now.

A bit of my theory re Skinner is similar to many Edinburgh players over the years! With a bit added on

When he debuted for Scotland I immediately told my pal at the game that I thought we had found our dark horse selection for the 2019 RWC. But for injury he would have gone. We had found a young guy who was so full of energy, dynamic, athletic and played lock or 6. Great. And he was for a bit. TBF I'm not sure how many injuries he has had which may be a factor now
A few seasons back while all were still talking of playing him at 6 for height and bulk, he made it clear publicly that he saw himself as a lock (which given he was still likely to bulk up as he left his early 20s was a fair call). And he did bulk up, not huge but heavier than he was. That means more grunt but less mobility. Question then becomes is he good enough to lock internationally, because he has lost his utility value. I think he blows hot and cold and gets in due to lack of better options, rather than because he is great. That's the extra bit
The like other Edin players bit is that at Exeter he really had to fight to get in match say squads, Exeter were the top team. At Edinburgh, he gets picked if he's fit. No jeopardy. Long history of that at Edinburgh

[BaldiePete]

McBeth, Muncaster and Currie called up to the squad. Mann and Crosbie drop out due to injury with Price and McCann returning to Edinburgh. Apparently there are concerns over both Sutherland and Bhatti. Given the number of centres in the squad Currie must just be there for the experience. McCann dropping out probably means that Graham is fit.

[Cameo]

Main thing I want to see this weekend is some strategy when the phase count gets a little higher. Part of it can be carrying better, and that might be enough vs Wales, but we need something when our carriers aren't making ground and it slows down.

Not sure what it is. Either something more intricate among the forwards, gettimg forward runners wider, more offloads, a trick like setting up a maul in phase play, or a way to bring in runners from our back three or centres. It might help if our 9s threatened a bit more round the fringes and interested defenders.

[af73]

I want to see us play well -which we have been doing, just not for long enough in games
I want us win - which we have been doing, just not often or consistently enough to be contenders.

It would be very easy to fall into our traditional role of accommodating hosts and be the ones allow Wales to write the headlines. Like we often do for Italy.

I would like to see the game faces on from the minute they walk out of the tunnel. If we score a try, win a penalty or even a turnover lets forego the choreography for this game and focus on the next thing that's about to happen. I'm sure they do...just let us be seen to be doing it as well?

When you jump up and down or strike a pose after scoring...then immediately c**k up the restart it's meat and drink for the critics to suggest that's what you had been working on during the week instead of the nuts and bolts.

That's not to confuse focus with inhibition or pragmatism with dullness. We can still play our game but as one pundit suggested recently, it's all about moments with this team. We then go 50 minutes without scoring and the crowd's attention wanders until the next "moment" arrives.
Bit more of the relentless, knock Wales back, keep them down & don't offer a way back in to "turn the tide" and the crowd will engage.

Not much to ask really

[Mikey Brown]

Yep. I think a lot of that stems from what Cameo is talking about though. We seem to exert so much energy in the wrong places, working very hard but not necessarily very smart.

We often stretch ourselves far too thin while trying to create something, whether in alignment or just general energy, then are left grasping when the opposition get some moment. We make those 80 minute performances almost impossible for ourselves in terms of endurance and consistency.

We simply won’t conjure up a French/SA style pack, but we can learn a lot from how smartly Ireland use their resources.

[Cameo]

Two things:

1. Not sure I get what you are talking about with 'choreography'. I don't think we over celebrate really and I don't want us to buy into this idea that you have to be miserable until you win the 6N/World Cup. It's not fun and it's not productive (in fact it's counter productive). It's just playing to the killjoys.

2. I've said it before, but while we should be aiming to be better, this 80 minute performance thing is a myth. No one does it, even against Italy. Also, we were fairly consistent across the whole game against England. Yes, sometimes it led to points and sometimes it didn't but I don't remember a spell where it seemed we lost concentration. We just weren't quite effective enough.

[septic 9]

Two things:

1. Not sure I get what you are talking about with 'choreography'. I don't think we over celebrate really and I don't want us to buy into this idea that you have to be miserable until you win the 6N/World Cup. It's not fun and it's not productive (in fact it's counter productive). It's just playing to the killjoys.

2. I've said it before, but while we should be aiming to be better, this 80 minute performance thing is a myth. No one does it, even against Italy. Also, we were fairly consistent across the whole game against England. Yes, sometimes it led to points and sometimes it didn't but I don't remember a spell where it seemed we lost concentration. We just weren't quite effective enough.

if we get to Saracens/Itoje/Earl levels of celebrating an opposition knock on I'll get worried. Building a team ethos consists of lots of little things, including congratulating good play. by a team mate. I don't see an issue for us TBH

Also agree that no-one ever really does an 80min performance. Issue is to maintain concentration and focus when things don't come off; to stick to the plan, the process. We have a tendency - at least some of our players do - to overplay when things get tough or to lapse concentration.

[BaldiePete]

I prefer a 5:3 bench, which would allow Horne to get a place. I’d like him to start but definitely on the bench. It’s perhaps unfair on Rowe who had a good game but if Graham is fit I’d like him to start with Rowe on the bench. Other backs should stay the same. In the forwards, there needs to be a change in the 2nd row. I don’t see both being changed, so keep Gilchrist for his lineout work and play either Brown or Henderson. Front row, give Bhatti a start, Schoeman to bench.

Actually, I’d say there’s no chance of Townsend doing all that, other than perhaps a 5:3 split. We lost by one point away from home, with missed kicks making the difference in the end. Assuming the players are all fit, there will be minimal changes.

As predicted same again except Darcy starts, Rowe to bench and Horne added in a 5:3 split with Skinner dropping out.

15. Blair Kinghorn – Toulouse (58)
14. Darcy Graham – Edinburgh Rugby (44)
13. Huw Jones – Glasgow Warriors (56)
12. Tom Jordan – Glasgow Warriors (6)
11. Duhan van der Merwe – Edinburgh Rugby (47)
10. Finn Russell – Co-Captain – Bath Rugby (85)
9. Ben White – Toulon (27)

1. Pierre Schoeman – Edinburgh Rugby (40)
2. Dave Cherry – Edinburgh Rugby (14)
3. Zander Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors (73)
4. Jonny Gray – Bordeaux Bègles (80)
5. Grant Gilchrist – Edinburgh Rugby (78)
6. Jamie Ritchie – Edinburgh Rugby (57)
7. Rory Darge – Co-Captain – Glasgow Warriors (28)
8. Jack Dempsey – Glasgow Warriors (25)

Replacements

16. Ewan Ashman – Edinburgh Rugby (25)
17. Rory Sutherland – Glasgow Warriors (39)
18. Will Hurd – Leicester Tigers (7)
19. Gregor Brown – Glasgow Warriors (7)
20. Matt Fagerson – Glasgow Warriors (53)
21. George Horne – Glasgow Warriors (35)
22. Stafford McDowall – Glasgow Warriors (11)
23. Kyle Rowe – Glasgow Warriors (11)

[Mikey Brown]

I mean that’s a good enough team to win, but feels fairly uninspiring on the back of the last few games.

The issues are mainly beyond the specific team selection, but some new energy wouldn’t go amiss.

Jordan has done some good things but I’m surprised McDowall hasn’t managed to win the starting shirt back.

[BaldiePete]

The team that played England was good enough to win. They scored three tries to one away from home and didn’t win because Russell missed three kicks, one a sitter, any one of which would have won us the game. I’d have liked to see some more dynamism in the 2nd row but I’m not at all surprised that he’s made minimal changes.

[Cameo]

The team that played England was good enough to win. They scored three tries to one away from home and didn’t win because Russell missed three kicks, one a sitter, any one of which would have won us the game. I’d have liked to see some more dynamism in the 2nd row but I’m not at all surprised that he’s made minimal changes.

Yeah, that's kindof my thinking.

[Donny osmond]

Wales are going to win this