Ireland v All Blacks II: the Greenwash or the Blacklash?
Posted: Mon Nov 14, 2016 12:07 am
This will be tasty.
On the one hand, there will be some very experienced members of the Team Formerly Known as the Most Dominant in The World who will want to do everything they can to extract revenge. It is an impossible task to completely remove the stain of being the first ever All Blacks to lose to Ireland, but a solid win would be a good start. (Judging by the Welsh experience, the stigma starts to fade if we can beat them a couple of dozen times over 50 or 60 years without another loss.) The All Blacks have also developed a habit of following up a loss or a close-run thing with a serious step-up against the same opposition (e.g. Aussie 2014 & 2015, Ireland in 2012). I’m not sure how much of this is based on the personal attributed of the players and how much on the analysis of the poor performance and the consequential remedial work done.
On the other hand, Ireland did not win through the luck of the bounce, or passion on the day. They played the right game plan with great skill and determination. Their preparation was clearly excellent. There is no reason to think they will not be able to perform to that level again. Perhaps the only question mark is whether having achieved that remarkable result, there might be a degree of feeling that “the job’s done” amongst the Irish? I suspect that the opposite will be true. This team will not want their historic win to be seen as some sort of fluke or "plucky" flash–in-the-pan (see Japan v SA) but a true statement of their abilities.
Both sides ran B-sides against limited opposition over the weekend. Both will be putting out their best available XXIII regardless of any previous plans, I'm sure. I reckon Shag would rather lose to Ireland and France than to Ireland twice. Equally, Schmidt would consider a lost to Australia as more than compensated for by unprecedented Irish back-to-back wins* against the mighty All Blacks.
Assuming Whitelock is fit, the NZ pack picks itself as does Taylor In the reserves. For the balance of the fatties bench, you get two from Tu'ungafasi, Faumuina and Crockett. I like the first two but I'm relying on my recollection that they can each play both sides. Backing up the engine room, As effective as S. Barrett's introduction to the team has been, surely you go with experience and have Tuipulotu. Loose forward cover is a bit trickier. Savea is an impact talent but Squire's work rate is good and he has a habit of turning up in the right places. I think the added flexibility Squire provides edges it.
In the backs, I think we saw Dunny Smith regain some confidence so I would start him but be prepared to yank him for TJP at 40 if he isn't sparking. Cruden and Sopoaga both looked fine but dropping Barrett would be a huge call. His goal-kicking remains a worry, which perhaps favours Sopoaga slightly ahead as the bench option? (I'm not certain Shag will agree with me here.) The Savea/Naholo double threat thing was exposed defensively by Ireland's kicking. I would revert to Savea/Dagg/B. Smith as a back three - unfair perhaps on Naholo. Lienert-Brown is the answer at 12, with Fekitoa really the last man standing at 13. The final seat on the bus is toss-up between Reiko Ioane and Seta Tamanivalu. (McKenzie didn’t do enough v Italy to demand inclusion and leave us short of proper mid-field cover.) As the original squad member, presumably Ioane goes in.
Predicted squad:
1. J. P. T. Moody
2. D. S. Coles
3. O. T. Franks
4. B. A. Retallick
5. S. L. Whitelock
6. J. Kaino
7. S. J. Cane
8. K. J. Read (C)
9. A. L. Smith
10. B. J. Barrett
11. S. J. Savea
12. A. Lienert-Brown
13. M. F. Fekitoa
14. W I. J. A. Dagg
15. B. R. Smith
16. C. J. D. Taylor
17. O. Tu'ungafasi
18. C. Faumuina
19. P. T. Tuipulotu
20. L. I. Squire
21. T. T. R. Perenara
22. L.I Sopoaga
23. R. Ioane
*No one has achieved this since 2009
On the one hand, there will be some very experienced members of the Team Formerly Known as the Most Dominant in The World who will want to do everything they can to extract revenge. It is an impossible task to completely remove the stain of being the first ever All Blacks to lose to Ireland, but a solid win would be a good start. (Judging by the Welsh experience, the stigma starts to fade if we can beat them a couple of dozen times over 50 or 60 years without another loss.) The All Blacks have also developed a habit of following up a loss or a close-run thing with a serious step-up against the same opposition (e.g. Aussie 2014 & 2015, Ireland in 2012). I’m not sure how much of this is based on the personal attributed of the players and how much on the analysis of the poor performance and the consequential remedial work done.
On the other hand, Ireland did not win through the luck of the bounce, or passion on the day. They played the right game plan with great skill and determination. Their preparation was clearly excellent. There is no reason to think they will not be able to perform to that level again. Perhaps the only question mark is whether having achieved that remarkable result, there might be a degree of feeling that “the job’s done” amongst the Irish? I suspect that the opposite will be true. This team will not want their historic win to be seen as some sort of fluke or "plucky" flash–in-the-pan (see Japan v SA) but a true statement of their abilities.
Both sides ran B-sides against limited opposition over the weekend. Both will be putting out their best available XXIII regardless of any previous plans, I'm sure. I reckon Shag would rather lose to Ireland and France than to Ireland twice. Equally, Schmidt would consider a lost to Australia as more than compensated for by unprecedented Irish back-to-back wins* against the mighty All Blacks.
Assuming Whitelock is fit, the NZ pack picks itself as does Taylor In the reserves. For the balance of the fatties bench, you get two from Tu'ungafasi, Faumuina and Crockett. I like the first two but I'm relying on my recollection that they can each play both sides. Backing up the engine room, As effective as S. Barrett's introduction to the team has been, surely you go with experience and have Tuipulotu. Loose forward cover is a bit trickier. Savea is an impact talent but Squire's work rate is good and he has a habit of turning up in the right places. I think the added flexibility Squire provides edges it.
In the backs, I think we saw Dunny Smith regain some confidence so I would start him but be prepared to yank him for TJP at 40 if he isn't sparking. Cruden and Sopoaga both looked fine but dropping Barrett would be a huge call. His goal-kicking remains a worry, which perhaps favours Sopoaga slightly ahead as the bench option? (I'm not certain Shag will agree with me here.) The Savea/Naholo double threat thing was exposed defensively by Ireland's kicking. I would revert to Savea/Dagg/B. Smith as a back three - unfair perhaps on Naholo. Lienert-Brown is the answer at 12, with Fekitoa really the last man standing at 13. The final seat on the bus is toss-up between Reiko Ioane and Seta Tamanivalu. (McKenzie didn’t do enough v Italy to demand inclusion and leave us short of proper mid-field cover.) As the original squad member, presumably Ioane goes in.
Predicted squad:
1. J. P. T. Moody
2. D. S. Coles
3. O. T. Franks
4. B. A. Retallick
5. S. L. Whitelock
6. J. Kaino
7. S. J. Cane
8. K. J. Read (C)
9. A. L. Smith
10. B. J. Barrett
11. S. J. Savea
12. A. Lienert-Brown
13. M. F. Fekitoa
14. W I. J. A. Dagg
15. B. R. Smith
16. C. J. D. Taylor
17. O. Tu'ungafasi
18. C. Faumuina
19. P. T. Tuipulotu
20. L. I. Squire
21. T. T. R. Perenara
22. L.I Sopoaga
23. R. Ioane
*No one has achieved this since 2009